Bahia 2-0 Fortaleza EC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Bahia at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bahia vs Fortaleza EC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Fortaleza EC make the trip to Arena Fonte Nova to face Bahia in Serie A, Regular Season - 28. The match kicks off on Saturday 21 October 2023 at 22:30 UTC.
Form
Bahia (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Bahia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bahia's home record at Arena Fonte Nova: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Fortaleza EC's overall Serie A record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W W D W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Fortaleza EC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fortaleza EC's form when playing away from home: 3W 0D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Bahia, 1.90 for Fortaleza EC — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Bahia 1W, Fortaleza EC 1W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 3 Jun 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Bahia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Fortaleza EC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bahia 52% versus Fortaleza EC 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bahia 52% | Fortaleza EC 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bahia 1.19 xG and Fortaleza EC 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bahia attack 0.986 / defence 1.046 | Fortaleza EC attack 0.795 / defence 0.896. League average goals — home 1.347 / away 1.064. Data: 27 Bahia games / 65 Fortaleza EC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bahia 42% | Draw 32% | Fortaleza EC 26%. Fair-value odds: Bahia 2.38 | Draw 3.12 | Fortaleza EC 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bahia as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bahia if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.08 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: Bahia 60% | Fortaleza EC 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bahia vs Fortaleza EC | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Arena Fonte Nova • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Oct 2023, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bahia 42% | Draw 32% | Fortaleza EC 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 42% | xG Bahia 1.19 / Fortaleza EC 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Bahia attack 0.986 / def 1.046 | Fortaleza EC attack 0.795 / def 0.896 | league avg home 1.347 / away 1.064 • Poisson stance: Bahia (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Bahia xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Fortaleza EC xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bahia vs Fortaleza EC kick off?
Bahia vs Fortaleza EC kicked off at 22:30 on Saturday 21 October 2023 at Arena Fonte Nova.
What was the final score in Bahia vs Fortaleza EC?
Bahia 2 - 0 Fortaleza EC.
Where is Bahia vs Fortaleza EC being played?
The match is being played at Arena Fonte Nova.
What competition is Bahia vs Fortaleza EC part of?
Bahia vs Fortaleza EC is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Bahia vs Fortaleza EC?
Our statistical model gives Bahia a 42% chance of winning, Fortaleza EC a 26% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Bahia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bahia vs Fortaleza EC?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Bahia and Fortaleza EC will score (BTTS).
Will Bahia vs Fortaleza EC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bahia and Fortaleza EC?
Record (3 meetings): Bahia 1W | Draws 1 | Fortaleza EC 1W.
What form are Bahia and Fortaleza EC in?
Bahia (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. Fortaleza EC (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Bahia's attack at 0.99x the league average against Fortaleza EC's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.19 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Fortaleza EC's attack (0.80x) against Bahia's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from 27/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.3%), 1-0 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bahia Win
42%
2.39
32%
3.12
26%
3.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Bahia xG
Total xG
2.08
0.89
Fortaleza EC xG
2.39
42%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
3.83
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
41%
2.42
30%
3.29
Win to Nil
17%
5.80
8%
12.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 11.1 | 4.9 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.9 | 13.2 | 5.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bahia vs Fortaleza EC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Bahia and Fortaleza EC expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Bahia and 0.89 for Fortaleza EC, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Bahia vs Fortaleza EC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 27 outings, Bahia have picked up 1.15 PPG on a 8W 7D 12L record — W-L-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Bahia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fortaleza EC's form line: 12W 6D 9L from 27 games, 1.56 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-L. The sample for Fortaleza EC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Fortaleza EC are the form team by 0.41 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Bahia.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Bahia have posted 1.46 PPG from 13 outings (5W 4D 4L).
On the road, Fortaleza EC have gone 4W 2D 7L from 13 away games — 1.08 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.56 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Fortaleza EC's season.
Attack vs Defence
Bahia are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Fortaleza EC are on 1.22 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Last 27 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bahia
Blended
Fortaleza EC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bahia and Fortaleza EC in coming into this match?
Bahia have gone 8W 7D 12L in their last 27 games (1.15 PPG), while Fortaleza EC have gone 12W 6D 9L in their last 27 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bahia at home or Fortaleza EC away?
Bahia's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bahia at home: 1.46 PPG; Fortaleza EC away: 1.08 PPG.
Have Bahia or Fortaleza EC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bahia have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Fortaleza EC in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 20 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fortaleza EC won 4-1 on 22 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bahia have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Fortaleza EC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Bahia
2
Draws
3
Fortaleza EC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bahia and Fortaleza EC?
From 8 meetings on record, Bahia have won 3, Fortaleza EC have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bahia and Fortaleza EC last play each other?
They last met on 20 November 2025, when Bahia 2-3 Fortaleza EC.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bahia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Fortaleza EC see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bahia 69%, Fortaleza EC 31% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Bahia) and 31% (Fortaleza EC).
On the defensive side: Bahia keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Fortaleza EC in 31%; Fortaleza EC in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bahia home games / Fortaleza EC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bahia play Fortaleza EC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 69% of Bahia's recent matches and 31% of Fortaleza EC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bahia vs Fortaleza EC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Bahia's recent games and 31% of Fortaleza EC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bahia and Fortaleza EC tend to score early?
Bahia have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Fortaleza EC in 46% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bahia cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Fortaleza EC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bahia beat Fortaleza EC 2-0 at Arena Fonte Nova, Regular Season - 28, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bahia 1.19 xG and Fortaleza EC 0.89 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Bahia beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Fortaleza EC landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bahia attack 0.99 / defence 1.05 against Fortaleza EC attack 0.80 / defence 0.90, drawn from 27/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bahia 42% | Draw 32% | Fortaleza EC 26%, with Bahia to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bahia 52%, Fortaleza EC 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bahia's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Fortaleza EC's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Fortaleza EC arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 1.15. Form was overturned, with Bahia winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Bahia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line. Fortaleza EC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.