Bahia 0-2 Flamengo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bahia at 55%, yet the head-to-head data favours Flamengo — this Bahia vs Flamengo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Bahia host Flamengo at Arena Fonte Nova in Serie A (matchday 29). Kick-off is Sunday 6 October 2024 at 00:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Bahia stand at 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L W L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Bahia's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Bahia are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Flamengo — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Flamengo's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 road games (1.30 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Bahia 1.50 PPG, Flamengo 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
Despite the home advantage, Flamengo have the better record in our head-to-head data — 5 wins from 5 H2H matches against 0 for Bahia.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.4 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 21 Jun 2024, ended Bahia 1–2 Flamengo — a Flamengo win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Flamengo have won 5 of 5 H2H matches, and at 3.4 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading Patterns
Bahia in-play and half-time data (last 65 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Flamengo in-play and half-time data (last 65 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 54%; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bahia 51% versus Flamengo 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bahia 49% | Flamengo 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bahia 1.64 xG and Flamengo 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bahia attack 1.020 / defence 0.695 | Flamengo attack 1.292 / defence 1.192. League average goals — home 1.345 / away 0.974. Flamengo have an above-average attack rating of 1.292, which lifts their away xG to 0.87. Bahia have a tight defence (rating 0.695), which is pulling Flamengo's projected output down. Data: built from Bahia's last 66 games and Flamengo's last 65.
Result probabilities: Bahia 55% | Draw 25% | Flamengo 20%. Fair-value odds: Bahia 1.81 | Draw 4.06 | Flamengo 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Bahia (55%) — a 30pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bahia are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.51 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 54% probability — low conviction — though recent form (Bahia's last 10 home games and Flamengo's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.4 goals per game across 5 H2H matches point the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 53%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Bahia 40% (last 10 home games) | Flamengo 80% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bahia vs Flamengo | Competition: Serie A, matchday 29 | Venue: Arena Fonte Nova • Kick-off: Sunday 6 October 2024 at 00:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bahia 55% | Draw 25% | Flamengo 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Bahia 1.64 / Flamengo 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Bahia attack 1.020 / def 0.695 | Flamengo attack 1.292 / def 1.192 | league avg home 1.345 / away 0.974 • Poisson stance: Bahia (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Bahia xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Flamengo xG
47%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bahia vs Flamengo FAQs
What time does Bahia vs Flamengo kick off?
Bahia vs Flamengo kicked off at 00:00 UK time on Sunday 6 October 2024 at Arena Fonte Nova.
What was the final score in Bahia vs Flamengo?
Bahia 0 - 2 Flamengo.
Where is Bahia vs Flamengo being played?
The match is being played at Arena Fonte Nova.
What competition is Bahia vs Flamengo part of?
Bahia vs Flamengo is a Serie A fixture (matchday 29) (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Bahia vs Flamengo?
Our statistical model gives Bahia a 55% chance of winning, Flamengo a 20% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Bahia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bahia vs Flamengo?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Bahia and Flamengo will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Bahia vs Flamengo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Bahia's attack rating (1.02) and Flamengo's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 1.64 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Flamengo's attack versus Bahia's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Bahia's last 66 games and Flamengo's last 65 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.8%), 2-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bahia Win
55%
1.81
25%
4.06
20%
5.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Bahia xG
Total xG
2.51
0.87
Flamengo xG
1.81
55%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
5.00
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
42%
2.40
19%
5.13
Win to Nil
23%
4.33
4%
25.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 7.1 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.3 | 11.6 | 5.1 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.5 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.9 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bahia vs Flamengo Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bahia vs Flamengo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Bahia and Flamengo expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Bahia and 0.87 for Flamengo, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Bahia vs Flamengo?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 65 outings, Bahia have picked up 1.37 PPG on a 25W 14D 26L record — D-L-W-L-W across the most recent five.
Flamengo's form line: 33W 15D 17L from 65 games, 1.75 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bahia on 1.37 PPG, Flamengo on 1.75. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Bahia have posted 1.91 PPG from their last 32 home games (18W 7D 7L). That's noticeably better than their 1.37 PPG overall — Bahia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Flamengo have gone 14W 7D 11L from their last 32 away games — 1.53 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Bahia are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Flamengo are on 1.52 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Last 65 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bahia
Current Season
Flamengo
Blended
Bahia (Home) vs Flamengo (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bahia
Current Season
Flamengo
Blended
❓ Bahia vs Flamengo Form FAQs
What form are Bahia and Flamengo in coming into this match?
Bahia have gone 25W 14D 26L in their last 65 games (1.37 PPG), while Flamengo have gone 33W 15D 17L in their last 65 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bahia at home or Flamengo away?
Bahia's home record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bahia at home: 1.91 PPG; Flamengo away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Bahia or Flamengo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bahia have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Flamengo in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to July 2021. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 18 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Flamengo have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 18 Jul 2021, when Flamengo won Bahia 0-5 Flamengo.
Bahia's record when hosting Flamengo specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Bahia
0
Draws
9
Flamengo
Recent Meetings
❓ Bahia vs Flamengo H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bahia and Flamengo?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Bahia have won 1, Flamengo have won 9, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Bahia and Flamengo last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 October 2026: Bahia 0-3 Flamengo.
Who has won more matches between Bahia and Flamengo?
Flamengo have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bahia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bahia 47%, Flamengo 66% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Bahia) and 62% (Flamengo).
On the defensive side: Bahia keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bahia home games / Flamengo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bahia vs Flamengo Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bahia and Flamengo matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Bahia's games and 66% of Flamengo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Bahia and Flamengo matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Bahia's recent games and 62% of Flamengo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bahia and Flamengo matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of Bahia's recent matches and 72% of Flamengo's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Flamengo cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Bahia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Flamengo beat Bahia 0-2 at Arena Fonte Nova, Regular Season - 29, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bahia 1.64 xG and Flamengo 0.87 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Bahia fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Flamengo outscored their 0.87 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bahia attack 1.02 / defence 0.69 against Flamengo attack 1.29 / defence 1.19, drawn from 66/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bahia 55% | Draw 25% | Flamengo 20%, with Bahia to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Flamengo win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bahia 49%, Flamengo 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bahia's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Flamengo's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bahia 1.37 PPG, Flamengo 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Flamengo win broke the near-deadlock. Bahia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.53 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Flamengo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.41 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.