Bahia 1-1 Corinthians – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bahia at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bahia vs Corinthians fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Corinthians travel to Arena Fonte Nova to take on Bahia. The game is scheduled for Sunday 26 July 2026, 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Bahia — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: D L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Bahia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bahia's home record at Arena Fonte Nova: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Serie A games this season, Corinthians have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Corinthians, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Corinthians have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Bahia at 1.30 PPG versus Corinthians's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 9 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Bahia, 3 for Corinthians and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Jan 2026, ended 2–1 with Bahia winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Bahia trading profile (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Corinthians trading profile (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bahia 56% versus Corinthians 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bahia 51% | Corinthians 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bahia 1.52 xG and Corinthians 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bahia attack 1.074 / defence 0.918 | Corinthians attack 0.977 / defence 0.987. League average goals — home 1.432 / away 1.127. Data: 57 Bahia games / 57 Corinthians games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bahia 48% | Draw 28% | Corinthians 24%. Fair-value odds: Bahia 2.08 | Draw 3.57 | Corinthians 4.17. Bahia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bahia as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bahia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.53 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Bahia 70% | Corinthians 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bahia vs Corinthians | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Arena Fonte Nova • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Jul 2026, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bahia 48% | Draw 28% | Corinthians 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Bahia 1.52 / Corinthians 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Bahia attack 1.074 / def 0.918 | Corinthians attack 0.977 / def 0.987 | league avg home 1.432 / away 1.127 • Poisson stance: Bahia (48%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Bahia xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Corinthians xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bahia vs Corinthians kick off?
Bahia vs Corinthians kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 26 July 2026 at Arena Fonte Nova.
What was the final score in Bahia vs Corinthians?
Bahia 1 - 1 Corinthians.
Where is Bahia vs Corinthians being played?
The match is being played at Arena Fonte Nova.
What competition is Bahia vs Corinthians part of?
Bahia vs Corinthians is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Bahia vs Corinthians?
Our statistical model gives Bahia a 48% chance of winning, Corinthians a 24% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Bahia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bahia vs Corinthians?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Bahia and Corinthians will score (BTTS).
Will Bahia vs Corinthians have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bahia and Corinthians?
Record (9 meetings): Bahia 3W | Draws 3 | Corinthians 3W.
What form are Bahia and Corinthians in?
Bahia (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-W-D. Corinthians (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about Bahia vs Corinthians?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Bahia's attack rating (1.07) and Corinthians's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.52 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Corinthians's attack versus Bahia's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.5%), 0-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bahia Win
48%
2.08
28%
3.59
24%
4.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Bahia xG
Total xG
2.53
1.01
Corinthians xG
2.08
48%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
4.14
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
22%
4.56
Win to Nil
17%
5.72
5%
18.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 8.1 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 12.2 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bahia vs Corinthians?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Bahia and Corinthians expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Bahia and 1.01 for Corinthians, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Bahia vs Corinthians?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 57 outings, Bahia have picked up 1.58 PPG on a 25W 15D 17L record — D-L-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Bahia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Corinthians's form line: 19W 17D 21L from 57 games, 1.30 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-W. The sample for Corinthians is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bahia on 1.58 PPG, Corinthians on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Bahia have posted 2.14 PPG from 28 outings (18W 6D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.58 PPG overall — Bahia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Corinthians have gone 6W 9D 13L from 28 away games — 0.96 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bahia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bahia are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Corinthians are on 1.11 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 57 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bahia
Blended
Corinthians
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bahia and Corinthians in coming into this match?
Bahia have gone 25W 15D 17L in their last 57 games (1.58 PPG), while Corinthians have gone 19W 17D 21L in their last 57 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bahia at home or Corinthians away?
Bahia's home record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bahia at home: 2.14 PPG; Corinthians away: 0.96 PPG.
Have Bahia or Corinthians been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bahia have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Corinthians in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bahia and Corinthians runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Nov 2023, when Bahia won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bahia's record when hosting Corinthians specifically: 0W 4D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Bahia
4
Draws
3
Corinthians
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bahia and Corinthians?
From 10 meetings on record, Bahia have won 3, Corinthians have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Bahia and Corinthians last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when Bahia 1-1 Corinthians.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bahia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Corinthians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bahia 54%, Corinthians 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Bahia) and 43% (Corinthians).
On the defensive side: Bahia keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Corinthians in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bahia home games / Corinthians away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bahia play Corinthians?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Bahia's games and 57% of Corinthians's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bahia vs Corinthians usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Bahia's recent games and 43% of Corinthians's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bahia and Corinthians tend to score early?
Bahia have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Corinthians in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bahia and Corinthians share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Arena Fonte Nova, Regular Season - 20, as Bahia and Corinthians drew 1-1 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bahia 1.52 xG and Corinthians 1.01 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bahia attack 1.07 / defence 0.92 against Corinthians attack 0.98 / defence 0.99, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bahia 48% | Draw 28% | Corinthians 24%, with Bahia to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bahia 51%, Corinthians 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bahia's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Corinthians's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bahia 1.58 PPG, Corinthians 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.