Avai 1-0 Santos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Santos at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Avai vs Santos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Santos travel to Estádio Aderbal Ramos da Silva to take on Avai. The game is scheduled for Saturday 16 July 2022, 23:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Avai stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Avai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Avai's home record at Estádio Aderbal Ramos da Silva: 4W 2D 2L from 8 Serie A appearances (1.75 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 88% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.75 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Avai are significantly better at Estádio Aderbal Ramos da Silva than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie A games this season, Santos have recorded 2W 6D 2L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Santos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Santos away from home this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Avai at 0.80 PPG versus Santos's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Data
Avai trading profile (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (home games).
Santos trading profile (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Avai 62% versus Santos 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Avai 69% | Santos 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Avai 1.21 xG and Santos 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Avai attack 1.083 / defence 1.434 | Santos attack 0.976 / defence 0.864. League average goals — home 1.289 / away 0.942. Data: 16 Avai games / 54 Santos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Avai 33% | Draw 28% | Santos 38%. Fair-value odds: Avai 3.03 | Draw 3.57 | Santos 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Santos are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Santos offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.52 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Avai 88% | Santos 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Avai vs Santos | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Estádio Aderbal Ramos da Silva • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Jul 2022, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Avai 33% | Draw 28% | Santos 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 52% | xG Avai 1.21 / Santos 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Avai attack 1.083 / def 1.434 | Santos attack 0.976 / def 0.864 | league avg home 1.289 / away 0.942 • Poisson stance: Santos (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Avai xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Santos xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Avai vs Santos kick off?
Avai vs Santos kicked off at 23:00 on Saturday 16 July 2022 at Estádio Aderbal Ramos da Silva.
What was the final score in Avai vs Santos?
Avai 1 - 0 Santos.
Where is Avai vs Santos being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Aderbal Ramos da Silva.
What competition is Avai vs Santos part of?
Avai vs Santos is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Avai vs Santos?
Our statistical model gives Avai a 33% chance of winning, Santos a 38% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Santos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Avai vs Santos?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Avai and Santos will score (BTTS).
Will Avai vs Santos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Avai and Santos?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Avai and Santos in?
Avai (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. Santos (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Avai's attack at 1.08x the league average against Santos's defence at 0.86x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Santos's attack versus Avai's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 0-1 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Santos Win
33%
3.02
28%
3.51
38%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Avai xG
Total xG
2.52
1.32
Santos xG
3.02
33%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
2.60
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
27%
3.74
30%
3.34
Win to Nil
9%
11.29
12%
8.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 10.6 | 7.0 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.7 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.7 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Avai vs Santos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Avai and Santos expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Avai and 1.32 for Santos, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Avai vs Santos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 16 outings, Avai have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 5W 3D 8L record — W-L-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Avai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Santos's form line: 5W 7D 4L from 16 games, 1.38 PPG, last five W-D-D-L-W. The sample for Santos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Avai on 1.12 PPG, Santos on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Avai have posted 1.57 PPG from 7 outings (3W 2D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.12 PPG overall — Avai are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Santos have gone 1W 4D 2L from 7 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Avai come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Avai are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Santos are on 1.25 scored and 0.94 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Avai have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 16 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Avai
Blended
Santos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Avai and Santos in coming into this match?
Avai have gone 5W 3D 8L in their last 16 games (1.12 PPG), while Santos have gone 5W 7D 4L in their last 16 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Avai at home or Santos away?
Avai's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Avai at home: 1.57 PPG; Santos away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Avai or Santos been keeping clean sheets recently?
Avai have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Santos in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 November 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Avai
1
Draws
0
Santos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Avai and Santos?
From 2 meetings on record, Avai have won 1, Santos have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Avai and Santos last play each other?
They last met on 5 November 2022, when Santos 1-1 Avai.
Who has won more matches between Avai and Santos?
Avai have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Avai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Santos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Avai at 100%, Santos at 57%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 86% for Avai and 43% for Santos. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 14% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Santos in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Avai home games / Santos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Avai play Santos?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Avai's games and 57% of Santos's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Avai vs Santos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 86% of Avai's matches and 43% of Santos's.
Do Avai and Santos tend to score early?
Avai have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Santos in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Avai defy the odds to beat Santos 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Avai beat Santos 1-0 at Estádio Aderbal Ramos da Silva, Regular Season - 17, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Avai 1.21 xG and Santos 1.32 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Santos landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Avai attack 1.08 / defence 1.43 against Santos attack 0.98 / defence 0.86, drawn from 16/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Avai 33% | Draw 28% | Santos 38%, with Santos to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Avai win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Avai 69%, Santos 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Avai's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Santos's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Avai 1.12 PPG, Santos 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Avai win broke the near-deadlock. Avai (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line. Santos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.