Avai 2-1 Coritiba – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Avai at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Avai vs Coritiba fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Coritiba make the trip to Estádio Aderbal Ramos da Silva to face Avai in Serie A, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Tuesday 10 May 2022 at 00:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Avai 1.58 xG and Coritiba 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Avai attack 1.032 / defence 1.172 | Coritiba attack 1.027 / defence 1.148. League average goals — home 1.337 / away 0.931. Data: 4 Avai games / 4 Coritiba games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Avai 48% | Draw 25% | Coritiba 27%. Fair-value odds: Avai 2.08 | Draw 4.00 | Coritiba 3.70. Avai hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Avai as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Avai if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.70 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Avai vs Coritiba | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Estádio Aderbal Ramos da Silva • Kick-off: Tuesday 10 May 2022, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Avai 48% | Draw 25% | Coritiba 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 54% | xG Avai 1.58 / Coritiba 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Avai attack 1.032 / def 1.172 | Coritiba attack 1.027 / def 1.148 | league avg home 1.337 / away 0.931 • Poisson stance: Avai (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Avai xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Coritiba xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Avai vs Coritiba kick off?
Avai vs Coritiba kicked off at 00:00 on Tuesday 10 May 2022 at Estádio Aderbal Ramos da Silva.
What was the final score in Avai vs Coritiba?
Avai 2 - 1 Coritiba.
Where is Avai vs Coritiba being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Aderbal Ramos da Silva.
What competition is Avai vs Coritiba part of?
Avai vs Coritiba is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Avai vs Coritiba?
Our statistical model gives Avai a 48% chance of winning, Coritiba a 27% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Avai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Avai vs Coritiba?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Avai and Coritiba will score (BTTS).
Will Avai vs Coritiba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Avai and Coritiba?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Avai and Coritiba in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Avai's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Coritiba's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.58. Flip it around — Coritiba's attack (1.03x) against Avai's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Avai Win
48%
2.08
25%
4.00
27%
3.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Avai xG
Total xG
2.70
1.12
Coritiba xG
2.08
48%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
3.71
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
33%
3.07
21%
4.87
Win to Nil
16%
6.38
6%
18.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 7.5 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 11.9 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.4 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Avai vs Coritiba?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Avai and Coritiba expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Avai and 1.12 for Coritiba, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Avai vs Coritiba?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Avai
Pre-Season
Coritiba
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 August 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Avai
0
Draws
1
Coritiba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Avai and Coritiba?
From 2 meetings on record, Avai have won 1, Coritiba have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Avai and Coritiba last play each other?
They last met on 27 August 2022, when Coritiba 1-0 Avai.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Avai home games / Coritiba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Avai edge out Coritiba 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Avai beat Coritiba 2-1 at Estádio Aderbal Ramos da Silva, Regular Season - 5, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Avai 1.58 xG and Coritiba 1.12 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Avai attack 1.03 / defence 1.17 against Coritiba attack 1.03 / defence 1.15, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Avai 48% | Draw 25% | Coritiba 27%, with Avai to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.