Atletico Paranaense 1-0 Sao Paulo – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Atletico Paranaense at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Atletico Paranaense vs Sao Paulo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sao Paulo make the trip to Arena da Baixada to face Atletico Paranaense in Serie A, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Sunday 31 July 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Form
Atletico Paranaense (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Atletico Paranaense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Atletico Paranaense have posted 5W 4D 1L at Arena da Baixada — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Sao Paulo's overall Serie A record this term: 2W 6D 2L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W D D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sao Paulo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Sao Paulo have posted 1W 7D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Atletico Paranaense. A 0.60 PPG lead over Sao Paulo (1.80 vs 1.20) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Atletico Paranaense 0W, Sao Paulo 2W, 1D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Apr 2022, ended 0–4 with Sao Paulo winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Atletico Paranaense half-time and goal-timing data (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Sao Paulo half-time and goal-timing data (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atletico Paranaense 44% versus Sao Paulo 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atletico Paranaense 46% | Sao Paulo 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atletico Paranaense 1.59 xG and Sao Paulo 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atletico Paranaense attack 1.205 / defence 0.990 | Sao Paulo attack 1.088 / defence 1.001. League average goals — home 1.319 / away 0.947. Data: 57 Atletico Paranaense games / 57 Sao Paulo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atletico Paranaense 51% | Draw 25% | Sao Paulo 24%. Fair-value odds: Atletico Paranaense 1.96 | Draw 4.00 | Sao Paulo 4.17. Atletico Paranaense hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
Sao Paulo lead the H2H ledger, but Atletico Paranaense carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Atletico Paranaense at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Atletico Paranaense if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.61 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Atletico Paranaense 50% | Sao Paulo 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atletico Paranaense vs Sao Paulo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Arena da Baixada • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Jul 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atletico Paranaense 51% | Draw 25% | Sao Paulo 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 51% | xG Atletico Paranaense 1.59 / Sao Paulo 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Atletico Paranaense attack 1.205 / def 0.990 | Sao Paulo attack 1.088 / def 1.001 | league avg home 1.319 / away 0.947 • Poisson stance: Atletico Paranaense (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Atletico Paranaense xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Sao Paulo xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atletico Paranaense vs Sao Paulo kick off?
Atletico Paranaense vs Sao Paulo kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 31 July 2022 at Arena da Baixada.
What was the final score in Atletico Paranaense vs Sao Paulo?
Atletico Paranaense 1 - 0 Sao Paulo.
Where is Atletico Paranaense vs Sao Paulo being played?
The match is being played at Arena da Baixada.
What competition is Atletico Paranaense vs Sao Paulo part of?
Atletico Paranaense vs Sao Paulo is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Atletico Paranaense vs Sao Paulo?
Our statistical model gives Atletico Paranaense a 51% chance of winning, Sao Paulo a 24% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Atletico Paranaense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atletico Paranaense vs Sao Paulo?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Atletico Paranaense and Sao Paulo will score (BTTS).
Will Atletico Paranaense vs Sao Paulo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Paranaense and Sao Paulo?
Record (3 meetings): Atletico Paranaense 0W | Draws 1 | Sao Paulo 2W.
What form are Atletico Paranaense and Sao Paulo in?
Atletico Paranaense (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-D-W-L. Sao Paulo (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Atletico Paranaense's attack at 1.21x the league average against Sao Paulo's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.59 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sao Paulo's attack (1.09x) against Atletico Paranaense's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.1%), 2-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atletico Paranaense Win
51%
1.97
25%
3.99
24%
4.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Atletico Paranaense xG
Total xG
2.61
1.02
Sao Paulo xG
1.97
51%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
4.12
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
36%
2.77
20%
4.91
Win to Nil
18%
5.48
5%
20.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 7.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 11.9 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.5 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atletico Paranaense vs Sao Paulo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Atletico Paranaense and Sao Paulo expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Atletico Paranaense and 1.02 for Sao Paulo, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Atletico Paranaense vs Sao Paulo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 57 outings, Atletico Paranaense have picked up 1.37 PPG on a 22W 12D 23L record — W-L-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Atletico Paranaense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sao Paulo's form line: 16W 26D 15L from 57 games, 1.30 PPG, last five W-D-D-D-D. The sample for Sao Paulo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.37 PPG for Atletico Paranaense against 1.30 for Sao Paulo. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Atletico Paranaense have posted 1.68 PPG from 28 outings (13W 8D 7L).
On the road, Sao Paulo have gone 5W 13D 10L from 28 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atletico Paranaense come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Atletico Paranaense are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Sao Paulo are on 1.04 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Last 57 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atletico Paranaense
Blended
Sao Paulo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atletico Paranaense and Sao Paulo in coming into this match?
Atletico Paranaense have gone 22W 12D 23L in their last 57 games (1.37 PPG), while Sao Paulo have gone 16W 26D 15L in their last 57 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atletico Paranaense at home or Sao Paulo away?
Atletico Paranaense's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atletico Paranaense at home: 1.68 PPG; Sao Paulo away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Atletico Paranaense or Sao Paulo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atletico Paranaense have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Sao Paulo in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 23 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sao Paulo won 4-0 on 10 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Atletico Paranaense have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Sao Paulo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Atletico Paranaense
2
Draws
5
Sao Paulo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Paranaense and Sao Paulo?
From 9 meetings on record, Atletico Paranaense have won 2, Sao Paulo have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Atletico Paranaense and Sao Paulo last play each other?
They last met on 23 July 2026, when Sao Paulo 1-2 Atletico Paranaense.
Who has won more matches between Atletico Paranaense and Sao Paulo?
Sao Paulo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Atletico Paranaense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Sao Paulo see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atletico Paranaense 54%, Sao Paulo 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Atletico Paranaense) and 25% (Sao Paulo).
On the defensive side: Atletico Paranaense have failed to score in 32% of games; Sao Paulo in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atletico Paranaense home games / Sao Paulo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atletico Paranaense play Sao Paulo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Atletico Paranaense's recent matches and 54% of Sao Paulo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Atletico Paranaense vs Sao Paulo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Atletico Paranaense's recent games and 25% of Sao Paulo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atletico Paranaense and Sao Paulo tend to score early?
Atletico Paranaense have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Sao Paulo in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Atletico Paranaense edge out Sao Paulo 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atletico Paranaense beat Sao Paulo 1-0 at Arena da Baixada, Regular Season - 20, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atletico Paranaense 1.59 xG and Sao Paulo 1.02 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Sao Paulo landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atletico Paranaense attack 1.21 / defence 0.99 against Sao Paulo attack 1.09 / defence 1.00, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atletico Paranaense 51% | Draw 25% | Sao Paulo 24%, with Atletico Paranaense to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atletico Paranaense 46%, Sao Paulo 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atletico Paranaense's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.
Sao Paulo's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Atletico Paranaense 1.37 PPG, Sao Paulo 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Atletico Paranaense win broke the near-deadlock. Atletico Paranaense (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line. Sao Paulo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.