Atletico Paranaense 2-2 Palmeiras – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Palmeiras at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Palmeiras travel to Ligga Arena to take on Atletico Paranaense. The game is scheduled for Sunday 2 July 2023, 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Atletico Paranaense — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: L W D L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Atletico Paranaense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Ligga Arena, Atletico Paranaense have gone 8W 0D 2L this season (10 games, 2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Ligga Arena. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Atletico Paranaense are significantly better at Ligga Arena than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Palmeiras stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W W L L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Palmeiras, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Palmeiras's away record: 3W 5D 2L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Atletico Paranaense 1.60 PPG, Palmeiras 1.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Atletico Paranaense, 2 for Palmeiras and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Oct 2022, ended 1–3 with Palmeiras winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Atletico Paranaense trading profile (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Palmeiras trading profile (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atletico Paranaense 48% versus Palmeiras 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atletico Paranaense 44% | Palmeiras 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atletico Paranaense 1.00 xG and Palmeiras 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atletico Paranaense attack 1.020 / defence 0.911 | Palmeiras attack 1.148 / defence 0.727. League average goals — home 1.353 / away 1.023. Palmeiras's defence strength of 0.727 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 50 Atletico Paranaense games / 50 Palmeiras games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atletico Paranaense 33% | Draw 30% | Palmeiras 37%. Fair-value odds: Atletico Paranaense 3.03 | Draw 3.33 | Palmeiras 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Palmeiras are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Palmeiras offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.07 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Atletico Paranaense 50% | Palmeiras 50%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Ligga Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Jul 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atletico Paranaense 33% | Draw 30% | Palmeiras 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 42% | xG Atletico Paranaense 1.00 / Palmeiras 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Atletico Paranaense attack 1.020 / def 0.911 | Palmeiras attack 1.148 / def 0.727 | league avg home 1.353 / away 1.023 • Poisson stance: Palmeiras (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Atletico Paranaense xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Palmeiras xG
42%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras kick off?
Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 2 July 2023 at Ligga Arena.
What was the final score in Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras?
Atletico Paranaense 2 - 2 Palmeiras.
Where is Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras being played?
The match is being played at Ligga Arena.
What competition is Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras part of?
Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras?
Our statistical model gives Atletico Paranaense a 33% chance of winning, Palmeiras a 37% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Palmeiras the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Atletico Paranaense and Palmeiras will score (BTTS).
Will Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Paranaense and Palmeiras?
Record (4 meetings): Atletico Paranaense 1W | Draws 1 | Palmeiras 2W.
What form are Atletico Paranaense and Palmeiras in?
Atletico Paranaense (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-L-W. Palmeiras (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Atletico Paranaense's attack at 1.02x the league average against Palmeiras's defence at 0.73x — combine the two and it projects 1.00 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Palmeiras's attack versus Atletico Paranaense's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.3%), 0-1 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palmeiras Win
33%
3.01
30%
3.32
37%
2.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.4%
Away win
0 – 0
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Atletico Paranaense xG
Total xG
2.07
1.07
Palmeiras xG
3.01
33%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
2.73
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
37%
2.73
Win to Nil
11%
8.78
13%
7.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 13.4 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 13.5 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Atletico Paranaense and Palmeiras expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Atletico Paranaense and 1.07 for Palmeiras, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Atletico Paranaense's recent record stands at 22W 11D 17L from 50 games, a 1.54 PPG return, with L-W-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for Atletico Paranaense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Palmeiras, meanwhile, have gone 29W 16D 5L across 50 games — 2.06 PPG, with D-W-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Palmeiras is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Palmeiras by 0.52 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Atletico Paranaense heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Atletico Paranaense have managed 16W 6D 3L from 25 games — 2.16 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.54 PPG overall — Atletico Paranaense are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Palmeiras's away record stands at 12W 11D 2L across 25 trips, a 1.88 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Atletico Paranaense are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Palmeiras are on 1.76 scored and 0.74 conceded.
Defensively: Palmeiras in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atletico Paranaense
Blended
Palmeiras
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atletico Paranaense and Palmeiras in coming into this match?
Atletico Paranaense have gone 22W 11D 17L in their last 50 games (1.54 PPG), while Palmeiras have gone 29W 16D 5L in their last 50 (2.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atletico Paranaense at home or Palmeiras away?
Atletico Paranaense's home record (2.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atletico Paranaense at home: 2.16 PPG; Palmeiras away: 1.88 PPG.
Have Atletico Paranaense or Palmeiras been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atletico Paranaense have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Palmeiras in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Palmeiras have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Atletico Paranaense's record when hosting Palmeiras specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Atletico Paranaense
2
Draws
5
Palmeiras
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Paranaense and Palmeiras?
From 9 meetings on record, Atletico Paranaense have won 2, Palmeiras have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Atletico Paranaense and Palmeiras last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Palmeiras 1-0 Atletico Paranaense.
Who has won more matches between Atletico Paranaense and Palmeiras?
Palmeiras have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Atletico Paranaense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Palmeiras are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 28% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atletico Paranaense 52%, Palmeiras 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Atletico Paranaense) and 40% (Palmeiras).
On the defensive side: Atletico Paranaense keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Palmeiras in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atletico Paranaense home games / Palmeiras away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atletico Paranaense play Palmeiras?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Atletico Paranaense's recent matches and 48% of Palmeiras's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Atletico Paranaense's recent games and 40% of Palmeiras's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atletico Paranaense and Palmeiras tend to score early?
Atletico Paranaense have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Palmeiras in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Atletico Paranaense and Palmeiras share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atletico Paranaense and Palmeiras finished level at 2-2 at Ligga Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atletico Paranaense 1.00 xG and Palmeiras 1.07 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Atletico Paranaense beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Palmeiras outscored their 1.07 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atletico Paranaense attack 1.02 / defence 0.91 against Palmeiras attack 1.15 / defence 0.73, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atletico Paranaense 33% | Draw 30% | Palmeiras 37%, with Palmeiras to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atletico Paranaense 44%, Palmeiras 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atletico Paranaense's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Palmeiras's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Palmeiras arrived the stronger side — 2.06 PPG against 1.54. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Atletico Paranaense (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Palmeiras (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.76 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.