Atletico Paranaense 1-0 Mirassol – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atletico Paranaense at 54%, yet in-form Mirassol provide a compelling counter-argument — this Atletico Paranaense vs Mirassol fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Arena da Baixada plays host to Atletico Paranaense versus Mirassol in Serie A, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Saturday 30 May 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Atletico Paranaense have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W D D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Atletico Paranaense haven't played a Serie A game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
At home at Arena da Baixada, Atletico Paranaense have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Mirassol's overall Serie A record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: D W L W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Mirassol's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Mirassol arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading Data
Atletico Paranaense goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Mirassol goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atletico Paranaense 50% versus Mirassol 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atletico Paranaense 37% | Mirassol 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atletico Paranaense 1.61 xG and Mirassol 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atletico Paranaense attack 1.042 / defence 0.839 | Mirassol attack 0.939 / defence 1.050. League average goals — home 1.471 / away 1.137. Data: 17 Atletico Paranaense games / 54 Mirassol games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atletico Paranaense 54% | Draw 26% | Mirassol 21%. Fair-value odds: Atletico Paranaense 1.85 | Draw 3.85 | Mirassol 4.76. Atletico Paranaense hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Atletico Paranaense are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Mirassol (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Atletico Paranaense if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Atletico Paranaense 50% | Mirassol 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atletico Paranaense vs Mirassol | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Arena da Baixada • Kick-off: Saturday 30 May 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atletico Paranaense 54% | Draw 26% | Mirassol 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 48% | xG Atletico Paranaense 1.61 / Mirassol 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Atletico Paranaense attack 1.042 / def 0.839 | Mirassol attack 0.939 / def 1.050 | league avg home 1.471 / away 1.137 • Poisson stance: Atletico Paranaense (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Atletico Paranaense xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Mirassol xG
48%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atletico Paranaense vs Mirassol kick off?
Atletico Paranaense vs Mirassol kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 30 May 2026 at Arena da Baixada.
What was the final score in Atletico Paranaense vs Mirassol?
Atletico Paranaense 1 - 0 Mirassol.
Where is Atletico Paranaense vs Mirassol being played?
The match is being played at Arena da Baixada.
What competition is Atletico Paranaense vs Mirassol part of?
Atletico Paranaense vs Mirassol is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Atletico Paranaense vs Mirassol?
Our statistical model gives Atletico Paranaense a 54% chance of winning, Mirassol a 21% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Atletico Paranaense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atletico Paranaense vs Mirassol?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Atletico Paranaense and Mirassol will score (BTTS).
Will Atletico Paranaense vs Mirassol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Paranaense and Mirassol?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Atletico Paranaense and Mirassol in?
Atletico Paranaense (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-L-L. Mirassol (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Atletico Paranaense's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Mirassol's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.61. Flip it around — Mirassol's attack (0.94x) against Atletico Paranaense's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from 17/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.6%), 2-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atletico Paranaense Win
54%
1.86
26%
3.90
21%
4.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Atletico Paranaense xG
Total xG
2.50
0.90
Mirassol xG
1.86
54%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
4.86
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
20%
5.00
Win to Nil
22%
4.56
4%
24.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 7.3 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.1 | 11.8 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.5 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atletico Paranaense vs Mirassol?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Atletico Paranaense and Mirassol expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Atletico Paranaense and 0.90 for Mirassol, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Atletico Paranaense vs Mirassol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 38 outings, Atletico Paranaense have picked up 1.11 PPG on a 11W 9D 18L record — W-D-D-L-L across the most recent five. Atletico Paranaense haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Mirassol's form line: 18W 13D 7L from 38 games, 1.76 PPG, last five D-W-L-W-D.
Put side by side, Mirassol are the form team by 0.65 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Atletico Paranaense.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Atletico Paranaense have posted 1.32 PPG from 19 outings (7W 4D 8L).
On the road, Mirassol have gone 6W 6D 7L from 19 away games — 1.26 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.76 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Mirassol's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Atletico Paranaense are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Mirassol are on 1.66 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atletico Paranaense
Pre-Season
Mirassol
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atletico Paranaense and Mirassol in coming into this match?
Atletico Paranaense have gone 11W 9D 18L in their last 38 games (1.11 PPG), while Mirassol have gone 18W 13D 7L in their last 38 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atletico Paranaense at home or Mirassol away?
Atletico Paranaense's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atletico Paranaense at home: 1.32 PPG; Mirassol away: 1.26 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 1 times since May 2026 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 30 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Last 1 Meetings
1
Atletico Paranaense
0
Draws
0
Mirassol
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Paranaense and Mirassol?
From 1 meetings on record, Atletico Paranaense have won 1, Mirassol have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Atletico Paranaense and Mirassol last play each other?
They last met on 30 May 2026, when Atletico Paranaense 1-0 Mirassol.
Who has won more matches between Atletico Paranaense and Mirassol?
Atletico Paranaense have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Atletico Paranaense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Mirassol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atletico Paranaense 53%, Mirassol 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Atletico Paranaense) and 32% (Mirassol).
On the defensive side: Atletico Paranaense keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Mirassol in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atletico Paranaense home games / Mirassol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atletico Paranaense play Mirassol?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Atletico Paranaense's recent matches and 47% of Mirassol's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Atletico Paranaense vs Mirassol usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Atletico Paranaense's recent games and 32% of Mirassol's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atletico Paranaense and Mirassol tend to score early?
Atletico Paranaense have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Mirassol in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Atletico Paranaense edge out Mirassol 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atletico Paranaense beat Mirassol 1-0 at Arena da Baixada, Regular Season - 18, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atletico Paranaense 1.61 xG and Mirassol 0.90 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Mirassol landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atletico Paranaense attack 1.04 / defence 0.84 against Mirassol attack 0.94 / defence 1.05, drawn from 17/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atletico Paranaense 54% | Draw 26% | Mirassol 21%, with Atletico Paranaense to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atletico Paranaense 37%, Mirassol 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atletico Paranaense's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Mirassol's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Mirassol arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.11. Form was overturned, with Atletico Paranaense winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Atletico Paranaense (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. Mirassol (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.