Atletico Paranaense 1-1 Fortaleza EC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atletico Paranaense at 45%, yet in-form Fortaleza EC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Atletico Paranaense vs Fortaleza EC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Atletico Paranaense and Fortaleza EC meet at Arena da Baixada in Serie A, Regular Season - 30. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 5 October 2022 at 23:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Atletico Paranaense have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: W D D L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, Atletico Paranaense have posted 5W 5D 0L at Arena da Baixada — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Fortaleza EC (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 2.20 points per game. Last five: L L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Fortaleza EC away from home this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Fortaleza EC arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Atletico Paranaense lead 1W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Jun 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Atletico Paranaense goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Fortaleza EC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atletico Paranaense 43% versus Fortaleza EC 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atletico Paranaense 43% | Fortaleza EC 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atletico Paranaense 1.29 xG and Fortaleza EC 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atletico Paranaense attack 1.094 / defence 0.949 | Fortaleza EC attack 1.065 / defence 0.886. League average goals — home 1.330 / away 0.908. Data: 67 Atletico Paranaense games / 67 Fortaleza EC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atletico Paranaense 45% | Draw 28% | Fortaleza EC 27%. Fair-value odds: Atletico Paranaense 2.22 | Draw 3.57 | Fortaleza EC 3.70. Atletico Paranaense hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Atletico Paranaense at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Fortaleza EC (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Atletico Paranaense if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.21 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates are neutral: Atletico Paranaense 60% | Fortaleza EC 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atletico Paranaense vs Fortaleza EC | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Arena da Baixada • Kick-off: Wednesday 5 Oct 2022, 23:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atletico Paranaense 45% | Draw 28% | Fortaleza EC 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 44% | xG Atletico Paranaense 1.29 / Fortaleza EC 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Atletico Paranaense attack 1.094 / def 0.949 | Fortaleza EC attack 1.065 / def 0.886 | league avg home 1.330 / away 0.908 • Poisson stance: Atletico Paranaense (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Atletico Paranaense xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Fortaleza EC xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atletico Paranaense vs Fortaleza EC kick off?
Atletico Paranaense vs Fortaleza EC kicked off at 23:30 on Wednesday 5 October 2022 at Arena da Baixada.
What was the final score in Atletico Paranaense vs Fortaleza EC?
Atletico Paranaense 1 - 1 Fortaleza EC.
Where is Atletico Paranaense vs Fortaleza EC being played?
The match is being played at Arena da Baixada.
What competition is Atletico Paranaense vs Fortaleza EC part of?
Atletico Paranaense vs Fortaleza EC is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Atletico Paranaense vs Fortaleza EC?
Our statistical model gives Atletico Paranaense a 45% chance of winning, Fortaleza EC a 27% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Atletico Paranaense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atletico Paranaense vs Fortaleza EC?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Atletico Paranaense and Fortaleza EC will score (BTTS).
Will Atletico Paranaense vs Fortaleza EC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Paranaense and Fortaleza EC?
Record (3 meetings): Atletico Paranaense 1W | Draws 1 | Fortaleza EC 1W.
What form are Atletico Paranaense and Fortaleza EC in?
Atletico Paranaense (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-D-L-W. Fortaleza EC (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Atletico Paranaense's attack rating (1.09) and Fortaleza EC's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 1.29 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fortaleza EC's attack (1.06x) against Atletico Paranaense's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.7%), 1-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atletico Paranaense Win
45%
2.22
28%
3.52
27%
3.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Atletico Paranaense xG
Total xG
2.21
0.92
Fortaleza EC xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
3.77
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.30
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
40%
2.50
28%
3.63
Win to Nil
18%
5.56
7%
13.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 10.1 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.2 | 13.0 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 8.4 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atletico Paranaense vs Fortaleza EC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Atletico Paranaense and Fortaleza EC expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Atletico Paranaense and 0.92 for Fortaleza EC, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Atletico Paranaense vs Fortaleza EC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Atletico Paranaense's recent record stands at 26W 16D 25L from 67 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with W-D-D-L-W in the last five.
Fortaleza EC, meanwhile, have gone 27W 14D 26L across 67 games — 1.42 PPG, with L-L-D-W-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for Atletico Paranaense against 1.42 for Fortaleza EC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Atletico Paranaense have managed 16W 10D 7L from 33 games — 1.76 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fortaleza EC's away record stands at 11W 4D 18L across 33 trips, a 1.12 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atletico Paranaense come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Atletico Paranaense are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Fortaleza EC are on 1.09 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Defensively: Fortaleza EC in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 67 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atletico Paranaense
Current Season
Fortaleza EC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atletico Paranaense and Fortaleza EC in coming into this match?
Atletico Paranaense have gone 26W 16D 25L in their last 67 games (1.40 PPG), while Fortaleza EC have gone 27W 14D 26L in their last 67 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atletico Paranaense at home or Fortaleza EC away?
Atletico Paranaense's home record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atletico Paranaense at home: 1.76 PPG; Fortaleza EC away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Atletico Paranaense or Fortaleza EC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atletico Paranaense have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Fortaleza EC in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 September 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fortaleza EC won 3-0 on 23 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Atletico Paranaense have gone 1W 3D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Fortaleza EC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Atletico Paranaense
4
Draws
3
Fortaleza EC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Paranaense and Fortaleza EC?
From 8 meetings on record, Atletico Paranaense have won 1, Fortaleza EC have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Atletico Paranaense and Fortaleza EC last play each other?
They last met on 14 September 2024, when Atletico Paranaense 1-1 Fortaleza EC.
Who has won more matches between Atletico Paranaense and Fortaleza EC?
Fortaleza EC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Atletico Paranaense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Fortaleza EC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atletico Paranaense 52%, Fortaleza EC 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Atletico Paranaense) and 48% (Fortaleza EC).
On the defensive side: Atletico Paranaense keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Fortaleza EC in 30%; Atletico Paranaense have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atletico Paranaense home games / Fortaleza EC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atletico Paranaense play Fortaleza EC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Atletico Paranaense's recent matches and 52% of Fortaleza EC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Atletico Paranaense vs Fortaleza EC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Atletico Paranaense's recent games and 48% of Fortaleza EC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atletico Paranaense and Fortaleza EC tend to score early?
Atletico Paranaense have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Fortaleza EC in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Atletico Paranaense and Fortaleza EC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Arena da Baixada, Regular Season - 30, as Atletico Paranaense and Fortaleza EC drew 1-1 in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atletico Paranaense 1.29 xG and Fortaleza EC 0.92 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atletico Paranaense attack 1.09 / defence 0.95 against Fortaleza EC attack 1.06 / defence 0.89, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atletico Paranaense 45% | Draw 28% | Fortaleza EC 27%, with Atletico Paranaense to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atletico Paranaense 43%, Fortaleza EC 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atletico Paranaense's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Fortaleza EC's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Atletico Paranaense 1.40 PPG, Fortaleza EC 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.