Atletico Paranaense 1-1 Corinthians – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atletico Paranaense at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Atletico Paranaense vs Corinthians fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 12 as Atletico Paranaense welcome Corinthians to Arena da Baixada. Kick-off is set for Thursday 16 June 2022 at 01:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Atletico Paranaense have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: D L W D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Arena da Baixada, Atletico Paranaense have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Corinthians stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Corinthians's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Atletico Paranaense) versus 1.60 (Corinthians). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Atletico Paranaense, 2 for Corinthians and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 28 Nov 2021, ended 0–1 with Corinthians winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Atletico Paranaense in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Corinthians in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atletico Paranaense 45% versus Corinthians 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atletico Paranaense 47% | Corinthians 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atletico Paranaense 1.19 xG and Corinthians 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atletico Paranaense attack 1.010 / defence 0.962 | Corinthians attack 1.003 / defence 0.938. League average goals — home 1.257 / away 0.991. Data: 49 Atletico Paranaense games / 49 Corinthians games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atletico Paranaense 40% | Draw 32% | Corinthians 28%. Fair-value odds: Atletico Paranaense 2.50 | Draw 3.12 | Corinthians 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Atletico Paranaense as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Atletico Paranaense offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.15 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Atletico Paranaense 40% | Corinthians 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atletico Paranaense vs Corinthians | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Arena da Baixada • Kick-off: Thursday 16 Jun 2022, 01:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atletico Paranaense 40% | Draw 32% | Corinthians 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 44% | xG Atletico Paranaense 1.19 / Corinthians 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Atletico Paranaense attack 1.010 / def 0.962 | Corinthians attack 1.003 / def 0.938 | league avg home 1.257 / away 0.991 • Poisson stance: Atletico Paranaense (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Atletico Paranaense xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Corinthians xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atletico Paranaense vs Corinthians kick off?
Atletico Paranaense vs Corinthians kicked off at 01:30 on Thursday 16 June 2022 at Arena da Baixada.
What was the final score in Atletico Paranaense vs Corinthians?
Atletico Paranaense 1 - 1 Corinthians.
Where is Atletico Paranaense vs Corinthians being played?
The match is being played at Arena da Baixada.
What competition is Atletico Paranaense vs Corinthians part of?
Atletico Paranaense vs Corinthians is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Atletico Paranaense vs Corinthians?
Our statistical model gives Atletico Paranaense a 40% chance of winning, Corinthians a 28% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Atletico Paranaense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atletico Paranaense vs Corinthians?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Atletico Paranaense and Corinthians will score (BTTS).
Will Atletico Paranaense vs Corinthians have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Paranaense and Corinthians?
Record (2 meetings): Atletico Paranaense 0W | Draws 0 | Corinthians 2W.
What form are Atletico Paranaense and Corinthians in?
Atletico Paranaense (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-L-W-D-D. Corinthians (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Atletico Paranaense's attack rating (1.01) and Corinthians's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.19 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Corinthians's attack versus Atletico Paranaense's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.4%), 1-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atletico Paranaense Win
40%
2.49
32%
3.17
28%
3.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Atletico Paranaense xG
Total xG
2.15
0.96
Corinthians xG
2.49
40%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
3.53
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
38%
2.60
30%
3.29
Win to Nil
15%
6.49
9%
11.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 11.2 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 13.3 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 7.9 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atletico Paranaense vs Corinthians?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Atletico Paranaense and Corinthians expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Atletico Paranaense and 0.96 for Corinthians, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Atletico Paranaense vs Corinthians?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Atletico Paranaense come into this having played 38 games, going 13W 8D 17L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-D-D.
On the other side, Corinthians sit at 1.50 PPG from 38 outings (15W 12D 11L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Atletico Paranaense on 1.24 PPG, Corinthians on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Atletico Paranaense's home form reads 8W 5D 6L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.53 PPG return.
Away from home, Corinthians have taken 1.16 points per game from 19 outings (5W 7D 7L).
The Goals Picture
Atletico Paranaense are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Corinthians are on 1.05 scored and 0.95 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atletico Paranaense
Current Season
Corinthians
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atletico Paranaense and Corinthians in coming into this match?
Atletico Paranaense have gone 13W 8D 17L in their last 38 games (1.24 PPG), while Corinthians have gone 15W 12D 11L in their last 38 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atletico Paranaense at home or Corinthians away?
Atletico Paranaense's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atletico Paranaense at home: 1.53 PPG; Corinthians away: 1.16 PPG.
Have Atletico Paranaense or Corinthians been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atletico Paranaense have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Corinthians in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Atletico Paranaense and Corinthians runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 30 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Oct 2024, when Corinthians won 5-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Atletico Paranaense's record when hosting Corinthians specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Atletico Paranaense
3
Draws
6
Corinthians
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Paranaense and Corinthians?
From 10 meetings on record, Atletico Paranaense have won 1, Corinthians have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Atletico Paranaense and Corinthians last play each other?
They last met on 30 July 2026, when Corinthians 0-0 Atletico Paranaense.
Who has won more matches between Atletico Paranaense and Corinthians?
Corinthians have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Atletico Paranaense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Corinthians see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atletico Paranaense 53%, Corinthians 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Atletico Paranaense) and 26% (Corinthians).
On the defensive side: Corinthians in 32%; Atletico Paranaense have failed to score in 37% of games; Corinthians in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atletico Paranaense home games / Corinthians away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atletico Paranaense play Corinthians?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Atletico Paranaense's recent matches and 37% of Corinthians's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Atletico Paranaense vs Corinthians usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Atletico Paranaense's recent games and 26% of Corinthians's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atletico Paranaense and Corinthians tend to score early?
Atletico Paranaense have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Corinthians in 47% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Atletico Paranaense and Corinthians share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atletico Paranaense and Corinthians finished level at 1-1 at Arena da Baixada, Regular Season - 12, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atletico Paranaense 1.19 xG and Corinthians 0.96 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atletico Paranaense attack 1.01 / defence 0.96 against Corinthians attack 1.00 / defence 0.94, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atletico Paranaense 40% | Draw 32% | Corinthians 28%, with Atletico Paranaense to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atletico Paranaense 47%, Corinthians 34%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atletico Paranaense's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Corinthians's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Atletico Paranaense 1.24 PPG, Corinthians 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.