Atletico-MG 1-1 Cuiaba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cuiaba at 38%, yet in-form Atletico-MG provide a compelling counter-argument — this Atletico-MG vs Cuiaba fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 23 as Atletico-MG welcome Cuiaba to Arena MRV. Kick-off is set for Saturday 17 August 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Atletico-MG have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: D W W L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Atletico-MG, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Atletico-MG's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Arena MRV this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Cuiaba — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Cuiaba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cuiaba away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Atletico-MG have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Atletico-MG register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Cuiaba in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Atletico-MG: 6 wins from 7 previous clashes against 0 for Cuiaba, with 1 draws across those contests.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Apr 2024, ended 3–0 with Atletico-MG winning.
The historical record gives Atletico-MG a meaningful edge here — 6 wins from 7 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Atletico-MG in-play tendencies (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Cuiaba in-play tendencies (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atletico-MG 53% versus Cuiaba 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atletico-MG 47% | Cuiaba 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atletico-MG 1.36 xG and Cuiaba 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atletico-MG attack 1.085 / defence 1.229 | Cuiaba attack 1.099 / defence 0.959. League average goals — home 1.304 / away 1.049. Data: 58 Atletico-MG games / 58 Cuiaba games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atletico-MG 36% | Draw 26% | Cuiaba 38%. Fair-value odds: Atletico-MG 2.78 | Draw 3.85 | Cuiaba 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cuiaba are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Atletico-MG (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cuiaba offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.77 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Atletico-MG 70% | Cuiaba 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atletico-MG vs Cuiaba | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Arena MRV • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Aug 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atletico-MG 36% | Draw 26% | Cuiaba 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Atletico-MG 1.36 / Cuiaba 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Atletico-MG attack 1.085 / def 1.229 | Cuiaba attack 1.099 / def 0.959 | league avg home 1.304 / away 1.049 • Poisson stance: Cuiaba (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Atletico-MG xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Cuiaba xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atletico-MG vs Cuiaba kick off?
Atletico-MG vs Cuiaba kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 17 August 2024 at Arena MRV.
What was the final score in Atletico-MG vs Cuiaba?
Atletico-MG 1 - 1 Cuiaba.
Where is Atletico-MG vs Cuiaba being played?
The match is being played at Arena MRV.
What competition is Atletico-MG vs Cuiaba part of?
Atletico-MG vs Cuiaba is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Atletico-MG vs Cuiaba?
Our statistical model gives Atletico-MG a 36% chance of winning, Cuiaba a 38% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Cuiaba the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atletico-MG vs Cuiaba?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Atletico-MG and Cuiaba will score (BTTS).
Will Atletico-MG vs Cuiaba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico-MG and Cuiaba?
Record (7 meetings): Atletico-MG 6W | Draws 1 | Cuiaba 0W.
What form are Atletico-MG and Cuiaba in?
Atletico-MG (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-W-L-D. Cuiaba (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Atletico-MG's attack at 1.08x the league average against Cuiaba's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.36 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cuiaba's attack versus Atletico-MG's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cuiaba Win
36%
2.80
26%
3.88
38%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Atletico-MG xG
Total xG
2.77
1.42
Cuiaba xG
2.80
36%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
2.60
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
24%
4.12
26%
3.88
Win to Nil
9%
11.54
10%
10.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 8.8 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.0 | 8.5 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.1 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.7 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atletico-MG vs Cuiaba?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Atletico-MG and Cuiaba expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Atletico-MG and 1.42 for Cuiaba, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Atletico-MG vs Cuiaba?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Atletico-MG come into this having played 58 games, going 26W 17D 15L for 1.64 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-L-D. The sample for Atletico-MG is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Cuiaba sit at 1.17 PPG from 58 outings (18W 14D 26L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Cuiaba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Atletico-MG carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.47 PPG clear of Cuiaba — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Atletico-MG's home form reads 15W 7D 6L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.86 PPG return.
Away from home, Cuiaba have taken 1.36 points per game from 28 outings (11W 5D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atletico-MG come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Atletico-MG are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Cuiaba are on 1.03 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 58 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atletico-MG
Blended
Cuiaba
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atletico-MG and Cuiaba in coming into this match?
Atletico-MG have gone 26W 17D 15L in their last 58 games (1.64 PPG), while Cuiaba have gone 18W 14D 26L in their last 58 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atletico-MG at home or Cuiaba away?
Atletico-MG's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atletico-MG at home: 1.86 PPG; Cuiaba away: 1.36 PPG.
Have Atletico-MG or Cuiaba been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atletico-MG have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Cuiaba in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 August 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 May 2023, when Atletico-MG won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Atletico-MG's record when hosting Cuiaba specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Atletico-MG
2
Draws
0
Cuiaba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico-MG and Cuiaba?
From 8 meetings on record, Atletico-MG have won 6, Cuiaba have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Atletico-MG and Cuiaba last play each other?
They last met on 17 August 2024, when Atletico-MG 1-1 Cuiaba.
Who has won more matches between Atletico-MG and Cuiaba?
Atletico-MG have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Atletico-MG are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Cuiaba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atletico-MG 57%, Cuiaba 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Atletico-MG) and 36% (Cuiaba).
On the defensive side: Atletico-MG keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Cuiaba in 32%; Cuiaba in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atletico-MG home games / Cuiaba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atletico-MG play Cuiaba?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Atletico-MG's recent matches and 36% of Cuiaba's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Atletico-MG vs Cuiaba usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Atletico-MG's recent games and 36% of Cuiaba's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atletico-MG and Cuiaba tend to score early?
Atletico-MG have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Cuiaba in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Atletico-MG and Cuiaba share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atletico-MG and Cuiaba finished level at 1-1 at Arena MRV, Regular Season - 23, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atletico-MG 1.36 xG and Cuiaba 1.42 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atletico-MG attack 1.08 / defence 1.23 against Cuiaba attack 1.10 / defence 0.96, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atletico-MG 36% | Draw 26% | Cuiaba 38%, with Cuiaba to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atletico-MG 47%, Cuiaba 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atletico-MG's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Cuiaba's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Atletico-MG arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 1.17. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.