Atletico Goianiense 1-1 Palmeiras – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Palmeiras (55%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Atletico Goianiense face Palmeiras.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 31 sees Palmeiras travel to Estádio Antônio Accioly to take on Atletico Goianiense. The game is scheduled for Monday 10 October 2022, 22:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Atletico Goianiense — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L L W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Atletico Goianiense have posted 4W 1D 5L at Estádio Antônio Accioly — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Serie A games this season, Palmeiras have recorded 7W 3D 0L from 10 outings — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Palmeiras's form when playing away from home: 6W 4D 0L across 10 road games this term (2.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Palmeiras — 1.30 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.40 vs 1.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Atletico Goianiense register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Palmeiras in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The previous 3 encounters between these sides heavily favour Palmeiras, who boast 3 victories compared to 0 for Atletico Goianiense.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 4.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 16 Jun 2022, ended 2–4 with Palmeiras winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Palmeiras have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 4.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Atletico Goianiense in-play tendencies (68 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Palmeiras in-play tendencies (68 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atletico Goianiense 48% versus Palmeiras 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atletico Goianiense 35% | Palmeiras 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atletico Goianiense 0.87 xG and Palmeiras 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atletico Goianiense attack 0.934 / defence 1.272 | Palmeiras attack 1.358 / defence 0.704. League average goals — home 1.319 / away 0.932. Palmeiras's defence strength of 0.704 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Palmeiras have an above-average attack strength of 1.358 — the away xG of 1.61 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 68 Atletico Goianiense games / 68 Palmeiras games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atletico Goianiense 20% | Draw 25% | Palmeiras 55%. Fair-value odds: Atletico Goianiense 5.00 | Draw 4.00 | Palmeiras 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Palmeiras (55%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Palmeiras are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.48 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 4.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. This conflicts with form data: Atletico Goianiense 70% | Palmeiras 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atletico Goianiense vs Palmeiras | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Estádio Antônio Accioly • Kick-off: Monday 10 Oct 2022, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atletico Goianiense 20% | Draw 25% | Palmeiras 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 46% | xG Atletico Goianiense 0.87 / Palmeiras 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Atletico Goianiense attack 0.934 / def 1.272 | Palmeiras attack 1.358 / def 0.704 | league avg home 1.319 / away 0.932 • Poisson stance: Palmeiras (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.87
Atletico Goianiense xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Palmeiras xG
46%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atletico Goianiense vs Palmeiras kick off?
Atletico Goianiense vs Palmeiras kicked off at 22:30 on Monday 10 October 2022 at Estádio Antônio Accioly.
What was the final score in Atletico Goianiense vs Palmeiras?
Atletico Goianiense 1 - 1 Palmeiras.
Where is Atletico Goianiense vs Palmeiras being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Antônio Accioly.
What competition is Atletico Goianiense vs Palmeiras part of?
Atletico Goianiense vs Palmeiras is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Atletico Goianiense vs Palmeiras?
Our statistical model gives Atletico Goianiense a 20% chance of winning, Palmeiras a 55% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Palmeiras the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atletico Goianiense vs Palmeiras?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Atletico Goianiense and Palmeiras will score (BTTS).
Will Atletico Goianiense vs Palmeiras have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Goianiense and Palmeiras?
Record (3 meetings): Atletico Goianiense 0W | Draws 0 | Palmeiras 3W.
What form are Atletico Goianiense and Palmeiras in?
Atletico Goianiense (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-W-W. Palmeiras (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Atletico Goianiense's attack at 0.93x the league average against Palmeiras's defence at 0.70x — combine the two and it projects 0.87 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Palmeiras's attack versus Atletico Goianiense's defence, projects 1.61 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 68/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (12.0%), 0-2 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palmeiras Win
20%
4.96
25%
4.02
55%
1.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
0 – 2
10.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.87
Atletico Goianiense xG
Total xG
2.48
1.61
Palmeiras xG
4.96
20%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
1.82
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
20%
5.01
42%
2.38
Win to Nil
4%
24.84
23%
4.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 13.5 | 10.9 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.7 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 5.1 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atletico Goianiense vs Palmeiras?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Atletico Goianiense and Palmeiras expected to score?
The model projects 0.87 expected goals for Atletico Goianiense and 1.61 for Palmeiras, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Atletico Goianiense vs Palmeiras?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Atletico Goianiense's recent record stands at 20W 21D 27L from 68 games, a 1.19 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-W in the last five.
Palmeiras, meanwhile, have gone 39W 15D 14L across 68 games — 1.94 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Palmeiras by 0.75 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Atletico Goianiense heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Atletico Goianiense have managed 11W 13D 10L from 34 games — 1.35 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Palmeiras's away record stands at 18W 9D 7L across 34 trips, a 1.85 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Palmeiras come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Atletico Goianiense are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Palmeiras are on 1.62 scored and 0.93 conceded.
Defensively: Palmeiras in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 68 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atletico Goianiense
Current Season
Palmeiras
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atletico Goianiense and Palmeiras in coming into this match?
Atletico Goianiense have gone 20W 21D 27L in their last 68 games (1.19 PPG), while Palmeiras have gone 39W 15D 14L in their last 68 (1.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atletico Goianiense at home or Palmeiras away?
Palmeiras's away record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atletico Goianiense at home: 1.35 PPG; Palmeiras away: 1.85 PPG.
Have Atletico Goianiense or Palmeiras been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atletico Goianiense have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Palmeiras in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Atletico Goianiense and Palmeiras runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 November 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Palmeiras have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Nov 2021, when Palmeiras won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Atletico Goianiense's record when hosting Palmeiras specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Atletico Goianiense
1
Draws
5
Palmeiras
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Goianiense and Palmeiras?
From 6 meetings on record, Atletico Goianiense have won 0, Palmeiras have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Atletico Goianiense and Palmeiras last play each other?
They last met on 23 November 2024, when Atletico Goianiense 0-1 Palmeiras.
Who has won more matches between Atletico Goianiense and Palmeiras?
Palmeiras have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Atletico Goianiense see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches.
Palmeiras are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atletico Goianiense 50%, Palmeiras 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 26% (Atletico Goianiense) and 47% (Palmeiras).
On the defensive side: Palmeiras in 47%; Atletico Goianiense have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atletico Goianiense home games / Palmeiras away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atletico Goianiense play Palmeiras?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Atletico Goianiense's recent matches and 44% of Palmeiras's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Atletico Goianiense vs Palmeiras usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 26% of Atletico Goianiense's recent games and 47% of Palmeiras's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atletico Goianiense and Palmeiras tend to score early?
Atletico Goianiense have had a goal before half-time in 47% of their recent matches, Palmeiras in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Atletico Goianiense and Palmeiras share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atletico Goianiense and Palmeiras finished level at 1-1 at Estádio Antônio Accioly, Regular Season - 31, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atletico Goianiense 0.87 xG and Palmeiras 1.61 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atletico Goianiense attack 0.93 / defence 1.27 against Palmeiras attack 1.36 / defence 0.70, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atletico Goianiense 20% | Draw 25% | Palmeiras 55%, with Palmeiras to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atletico Goianiense 35%, Palmeiras 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atletico Goianiense's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Palmeiras's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Palmeiras arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 1.19. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.