Atletico Goianiense 2-1 Bahia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atletico Goianiense at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Atletico Goianiense vs Bahia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Atletico Goianiense and Bahia meet at Estádio Antônio Accioly in Serie A, Regular Season - 35. This fixture gets under way on Monday 29 November 2021 at 22:00 UTC.
Current Form
Atletico Goianiense's overall Serie A record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L D D D D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters this season, Atletico Goianiense have posted 2W 7D 1L at Estádio Antônio Accioly — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Bahia (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: W L L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Bahia's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Atletico Goianiense, 0 for Bahia and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Aug 2021, ended 2–1 with Atletico Goianiense winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Atletico Goianiense — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 29% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 12% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 41% of games.
Bahia — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atletico Goianiense 38% versus Bahia 35%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Atletico Goianiense 26% | Bahia 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atletico Goianiense 0.93 xG and Bahia 0.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atletico Goianiense attack 0.735 / defence 1.063 | Bahia attack 0.638 / defence 1.292. League average goals — home 0.977 / away 0.914. Atletico Goianiense's attack strength of 0.735 is below the league average — the 0.93 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Bahia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.292 — this is suppressing Atletico Goianiense's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 34 Atletico Goianiense games / 34 Bahia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atletico Goianiense 41% | Draw 36% | Bahia 23%. Fair-value odds: Atletico Goianiense 2.44 | Draw 2.78 | Bahia 4.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 20% | BTTS probability 28% | Total xG 1.55. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 80% probability — total xG of 1.55 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 72% — Bahia's lower xG of 0.62 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 28%.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Atletico Goianiense at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 36% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Atletico Goianiense if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.55 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 20% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.6 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 28% on No. Form rates corroborate: Atletico Goianiense 50% | Bahia 10% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atletico Goianiense vs Bahia | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Estádio Antônio Accioly • Kick-off: Monday 29 Nov 2021, 22:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atletico Goianiense 41% | Draw 36% | Bahia 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 20% | BTTS 28% | xG Atletico Goianiense 0.93 / Bahia 0.62 • Poisson strength factors: Atletico Goianiense attack 0.735 / def 1.063 | Bahia attack 0.638 / def 1.292 | league avg home 0.977 / away 0.914 • Poisson stance: Atletico Goianiense (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Atletico Goianiense xG
Expected Goals
0.62
Bahia xG
28%
BTTS
46%
Over 1.5
20%
Over 2.5
7%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atletico Goianiense vs Bahia kick off?
Atletico Goianiense vs Bahia kicked off at 22:00 on Monday 29 November 2021 at Estádio Antônio Accioly.
What was the final score in Atletico Goianiense vs Bahia?
Atletico Goianiense 2 - 1 Bahia.
Where is Atletico Goianiense vs Bahia being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Antônio Accioly.
What competition is Atletico Goianiense vs Bahia part of?
Atletico Goianiense vs Bahia is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Atletico Goianiense vs Bahia?
Our statistical model gives Atletico Goianiense a 41% chance of winning, Bahia a 23% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Atletico Goianiense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atletico Goianiense vs Bahia?
Our model estimates a 28% probability that both Atletico Goianiense and Bahia will score (BTTS).
Will Atletico Goianiense vs Bahia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 20%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Goianiense and Bahia?
Record (1 meetings): Atletico Goianiense 1W | Draws 0 | Bahia 0W.
What form are Atletico Goianiense and Bahia in?
Atletico Goianiense (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-D-D-D. Bahia (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Atletico Goianiense's attack rating (0.73) and Bahia's defence rating (1.29), the model arrives at 0.93 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bahia's attack (0.64x) against Atletico Goianiense's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 0.62.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 22.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (18.2%), 1-1 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 55% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atletico Goianiense Win
41%
2.45
36%
2.77
23%
4.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
21.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
19.8%
Home win
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Atletico Goianiense xG
Total xG
1.55
0.62
Bahia xG
2.45
41%
Home win
2.77
36%
Draw
4.34
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
46%
Over 1.5
2.17
54%
Under 1.5
1.85
20%
Over 2.5
5.00
80%
Under 2.5
1.25
7%
Over 3.5
14.29
93%
Under 3.5
1.08
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
28%
BTTS Yes
3.54
72%
BTTS No
1.39
Clean Sheet
54%
1.86
40%
2.53
Win to Nil
22%
4.55
9%
10.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 21.3 | 13.2 | 4.1 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 19.8 | 12.2 | 3.8 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 9.2 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atletico Goianiense vs Bahia?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 22.9%.
How many goals are Atletico Goianiense and Bahia expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Atletico Goianiense and 0.62 for Bahia, a combined total of 1.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Atletico Goianiense vs Bahia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Atletico Goianiense's recent record stands at 9W 14D 11L from 34 games, a 1.21 PPG return, with L-D-D-D-D in the last five.
Bahia, meanwhile, have gone 10W 10D 14L across 34 games — 1.18 PPG, with W-L-L-D-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.21 PPG for Atletico Goianiense against 1.18 for Bahia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Atletico Goianiense have managed 4W 10D 3L from 17 games — 1.29 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bahia's away record stands at 3W 5D 9L across 17 trips, a 0.82 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atletico Goianiense come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Atletico Goianiense are averaging 0.76 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Bahia are on 1.06 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Defensively: Atletico Goianiense have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games; Bahia in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atletico Goianiense
Current Season
Bahia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atletico Goianiense and Bahia in coming into this match?
Atletico Goianiense have gone 9W 14D 11L in their last 34 games (1.21 PPG), while Bahia have gone 10W 10D 14L in their last 34 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atletico Goianiense at home or Bahia away?
Atletico Goianiense's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atletico Goianiense at home: 1.29 PPG; Bahia away: 0.82 PPG.
Have Atletico Goianiense or Bahia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atletico Goianiense have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Bahia in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 December 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Atletico Goianiense have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Bahia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Atletico Goianiense
1
Draws
1
Bahia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Goianiense and Bahia?
From 4 meetings on record, Atletico Goianiense have won 2, Bahia have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Atletico Goianiense and Bahia last play each other?
They last met on 8 December 2024, when Bahia 2-0 Atletico Goianiense.
Who has won more matches between Atletico Goianiense and Bahia?
Atletico Goianiense have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Atletico Goianiense tend to start slowly — only 29% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Bahia see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atletico Goianiense 41%, Bahia 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 12% for Atletico Goianiense and 35% for Bahia.
On the defensive side: Atletico Goianiense keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Atletico Goianiense have failed to score in 41% of games; Bahia in 59%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atletico Goianiense home games / Bahia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atletico Goianiense play Bahia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Atletico Goianiense's recent matches and 29% of Bahia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Atletico Goianiense vs Bahia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 12% of Atletico Goianiense's recent games and 35% of Bahia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atletico Goianiense and Bahia tend to score early?
Atletico Goianiense have had a goal before half-time in 29% of their recent matches, Bahia in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Atletico Goianiense edge out Bahia 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atletico Goianiense beat Bahia 2-1 at Estádio Antônio Accioly, Regular Season - 35, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atletico Goianiense 0.93 xG and Bahia 0.62 xG, a combined 1.55. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Atletico Goianiense beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atletico Goianiense attack 0.73 / defence 1.06 against Bahia attack 0.64 / defence 1.29, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atletico Goianiense 41% | Draw 36% | Bahia 23%, with Atletico Goianiense to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 20%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 46% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 28% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atletico Goianiense 26%, Bahia 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 37%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atletico Goianiense's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Bahia's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Atletico Goianiense 1.21 PPG, Bahia 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Atletico Goianiense win broke the near-deadlock. Atletico Goianiense (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.76 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.