Atletico Goianiense 0-2 Atletico Paranaense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Atletico Goianiense take on Atletico Paranaense.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Atletico Goianiense and Atletico Paranaense meet at Estádio Antônio Accioly in Serie A, Regular Season - 24. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 6 October 2021 at 23:00 UTC.
Form
Atletico Goianiense (all games): 3W 6D 1L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D L D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Atletico Goianiense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estádio Antônio Accioly, Atletico Goianiense have gone 1W 7D 2L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Estádio Antônio Accioly this season.
Atletico Paranaense have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: D L W W L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Atletico Paranaense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Atletico Paranaense away from home this season: 2W 0D 8L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Atletico Goianiense. A 0.80 PPG lead over Atletico Paranaense (1.50 vs 0.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Atletico Goianiense, 1 for Atletico Paranaense and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Jun 2021, ended 1–2 with Atletico Paranaense winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Atletico Goianiense — key trading statistics (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 27% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 9% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Atletico Paranaense — key trading statistics (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atletico Goianiense 46% versus Atletico Paranaense 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atletico Goianiense 32% | Atletico Paranaense 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atletico Goianiense 0.94 xG and Atletico Paranaense 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atletico Goianiense attack 0.715 / defence 0.968 | Atletico Paranaense attack 0.711 / defence 1.482. League average goals — home 0.891 / away 1.050. Atletico Goianiense's attack strength of 0.715 is below the league average — the 0.94 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Atletico Paranaense bring a strong defensive rating of 1.482 — this is suppressing Atletico Goianiense's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 Atletico Goianiense games / 22 Atletico Paranaense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atletico Goianiense 37% | Draw 38% | Atletico Paranaense 25%. Fair-value odds: Atletico Goianiense 2.70 | Draw 2.63 | Atletico Paranaense 4.00. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 23% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.67. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 77% probability — total xG of 1.67 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Atletico Paranaense's lower xG of 0.72 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 37% and away win at 25% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.67 combined xG gives a 23% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 33%. Form rates corroborate: Atletico Goianiense 40% | Atletico Paranaense 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atletico Goianiense vs Atletico Paranaense | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Estádio Antônio Accioly • Kick-off: Wednesday 6 Oct 2021, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atletico Goianiense 37% | Draw 38% | Atletico Paranaense 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 23% | BTTS 33% | xG Atletico Goianiense 0.94 / Atletico Paranaense 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: Atletico Goianiense attack 0.715 / def 0.968 | Atletico Paranaense attack 0.711 / def 1.482 | league avg home 0.891 / away 1.050 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Atletico Goianiense xG
Expected Goals
0.72
Atletico Paranaense xG
33%
BTTS
52%
Over 1.5
23%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atletico Goianiense vs Atletico Paranaense kick off?
Atletico Goianiense vs Atletico Paranaense kicked off at 23:00 on Wednesday 6 October 2021 at Estádio Antônio Accioly.
What was the final score in Atletico Goianiense vs Atletico Paranaense?
Atletico Goianiense 0 - 2 Atletico Paranaense.
Where is Atletico Goianiense vs Atletico Paranaense being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Antônio Accioly.
What competition is Atletico Goianiense vs Atletico Paranaense part of?
Atletico Goianiense vs Atletico Paranaense is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Atletico Goianiense vs Atletico Paranaense?
Our statistical model gives Atletico Goianiense a 37% chance of winning, Atletico Paranaense a 25% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Atletico Goianiense vs Atletico Paranaense?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Atletico Goianiense and Atletico Paranaense will score (BTTS).
Will Atletico Goianiense vs Atletico Paranaense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 23%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Goianiense and Atletico Paranaense?
Record (1 meetings): Atletico Goianiense 0W | Draws 0 | Atletico Paranaense 1W.
What form are Atletico Goianiense and Atletico Paranaense in?
Atletico Goianiense (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-D-L-D-W. Atletico Paranaense (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Atletico Goianiense's attack at 0.71x the league average against Atletico Paranaense's defence at 1.48x — combine the two and it projects 0.94 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Atletico Paranaense's attack (0.71x) against Atletico Goianiense's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 0.72.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 20.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (16.2%), 1-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
37%
2.69
38%
2.63
25%
4.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
18.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
17.8%
Home win
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Atletico Goianiense xG
Total xG
1.67
0.72
Atletico Paranaense xG
2.69
37%
Home win
2.63
38%
Draw
4.04
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
50%
Over 1.5
2.00
50%
Under 1.5
2.00
23%
Over 2.5
4.35
77%
Under 2.5
1.30
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.00
67%
BTTS No
1.50
Clean Sheet
49%
2.06
39%
2.57
Win to Nil
18%
5.53
10%
10.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.9 | 13.6 | 4.9 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.8 | 12.9 | 4.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 8.4 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atletico Goianiense vs Atletico Paranaense?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.6%.
How many goals are Atletico Goianiense and Atletico Paranaense expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Atletico Goianiense and 0.72 for Atletico Paranaense, a combined total of 1.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Atletico Goianiense vs Atletico Paranaense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Atletico Goianiense's recent record stands at 7W 9D 6L from 22 games, a 1.36 PPG return, with D-D-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for Atletico Goianiense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Atletico Paranaense, meanwhile, have gone 9W 3D 10L across 22 games — 1.36 PPG, with D-L-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Atletico Paranaense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.36 PPG for Atletico Goianiense against 1.36 for Atletico Paranaense. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Atletico Goianiense have managed 2W 7D 2L from 11 games — 1.18 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Atletico Paranaense's away record stands at 3W 0D 8L across 11 trips, a 0.82 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.36 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Atletico Paranaense's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Atletico Goianiense are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; Atletico Paranaense are on 1.32 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Defensively: Atletico Goianiense have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atletico Goianiense
Blended
Atletico Paranaense
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atletico Goianiense and Atletico Paranaense in coming into this match?
Atletico Goianiense have gone 7W 9D 6L in their last 22 games (1.36 PPG), while Atletico Paranaense have gone 9W 3D 10L in their last 22 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atletico Goianiense at home or Atletico Paranaense away?
Atletico Goianiense's home record (1.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atletico Goianiense at home: 1.18 PPG; Atletico Paranaense away: 0.82 PPG.
Have Atletico Goianiense or Atletico Paranaense been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atletico Goianiense have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Atletico Paranaense in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since June 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 November 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Atletico Paranaense have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Atletico Paranaense won 4-1 on 20 Jul 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Atletico Goianiense have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Atletico Paranaense — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Atletico Goianiense
1
Draws
5
Atletico Paranaense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Goianiense and Atletico Paranaense?
From 6 meetings on record, Atletico Goianiense have won 0, Atletico Paranaense have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Atletico Goianiense and Atletico Paranaense last play each other?
They last met on 20 November 2024, when Atletico Paranaense 2-0 Atletico Goianiense.
Who has won more matches between Atletico Goianiense and Atletico Paranaense?
Atletico Paranaense have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Atletico Goianiense tend to start slowly — only 27% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Atletico Paranaense see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atletico Goianiense 36%, Atletico Paranaense 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 9% for Atletico Goianiense and 54% for Atletico Paranaense.
On the defensive side: Atletico Goianiense keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Atletico Goianiense have failed to score in 46% of games; Atletico Paranaense in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atletico Goianiense home games / Atletico Paranaense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atletico Goianiense play Atletico Paranaense?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Atletico Goianiense's recent matches and 36% of Atletico Paranaense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Atletico Goianiense vs Atletico Paranaense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 9% of Atletico Goianiense's recent games and 54% of Atletico Paranaense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atletico Goianiense and Atletico Paranaense tend to score early?
Atletico Goianiense have had a goal before half-time in 27% of their recent matches, Atletico Paranaense in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Atletico Paranaense cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Atletico Goianiense.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atletico Paranaense beat Atletico Goianiense 0-2 at Estádio Antônio Accioly, Regular Season - 24, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atletico Goianiense 0.94 xG and Atletico Paranaense 0.72 xG, a combined 1.67. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Atletico Goianiense fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Atletico Paranaense outscored their 0.72 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atletico Goianiense attack 0.71 / defence 0.97 against Atletico Paranaense attack 0.71 / defence 1.48, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atletico Goianiense 37% | Draw 38% | Atletico Paranaense 25%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. Instead the game produced a Atletico Paranaense win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 23%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 52% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atletico Goianiense 32%, Atletico Paranaense 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atletico Goianiense's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Atletico Paranaense's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Atletico Goianiense 1.36 PPG, Atletico Paranaense 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Atletico Paranaense win broke the near-deadlock. Atletico Goianiense (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Atletico Paranaense (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.