America Mineiro 0-1 Vasco DA Gama – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates America Mineiro at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this America Mineiro vs Vasco DA Gama fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio Raimundo Sampaio plays host to America Mineiro versus Vasco DA Gama in Serie A, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Tuesday 26 September 2023 at 00:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
America Mineiro have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L W W D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for America Mineiro, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio, America Mineiro have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — America Mineiro are significantly better at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio than their overall form suggests.
Vasco DA Gama's overall Serie A record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Vasco DA Gama, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vasco DA Gama away from home this season: 0W 4D 6L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Vasco DA Gama are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading Data
America Mineiro goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Vasco DA Gama goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — America Mineiro 65% versus Vasco DA Gama 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (America Mineiro 74% | Vasco DA Gama 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects America Mineiro 1.38 xG and Vasco DA Gama 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: America Mineiro attack 0.888 / defence 1.408 | Vasco DA Gama attack 0.852 / defence 1.139. League average goals — home 1.364 / away 0.968. Data: 61 America Mineiro games / 23 Vasco DA Gama games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: America Mineiro 41% | Draw 28% | Vasco DA Gama 31%. Fair-value odds: America Mineiro 2.44 | Draw 3.57 | Vasco DA Gama 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates America Mineiro as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Vasco DA Gama (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on America Mineiro if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.54 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: America Mineiro 50% | Vasco DA Gama 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: America Mineiro vs Vasco DA Gama | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Estádio Raimundo Sampaio • Kick-off: Tuesday 26 Sep 2023, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: America Mineiro 41% | Draw 28% | Vasco DA Gama 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG America Mineiro 1.38 / Vasco DA Gama 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: America Mineiro attack 0.888 / def 1.408 | Vasco DA Gama attack 0.852 / def 1.139 | league avg home 1.364 / away 0.968 • Poisson stance: America Mineiro (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
America Mineiro xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Vasco DA Gama xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does America Mineiro vs Vasco DA Gama kick off?
America Mineiro vs Vasco DA Gama kicked off at 00:00 on Tuesday 26 September 2023 at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio.
What was the final score in America Mineiro vs Vasco DA Gama?
America Mineiro 0 - 1 Vasco DA Gama.
Where is America Mineiro vs Vasco DA Gama being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio.
What competition is America Mineiro vs Vasco DA Gama part of?
America Mineiro vs Vasco DA Gama is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win America Mineiro vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our statistical model gives America Mineiro a 41% chance of winning, Vasco DA Gama a 31% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making America Mineiro the favourite.
Will both teams score in America Mineiro vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both America Mineiro and Vasco DA Gama will score (BTTS).
Will America Mineiro vs Vasco DA Gama have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between America Mineiro and Vasco DA Gama?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are America Mineiro and Vasco DA Gama in?
America Mineiro (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. Vasco DA Gama (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates America Mineiro's attack at 0.89x the league average against Vasco DA Gama's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.38 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Vasco DA Gama's attack (0.85x) against America Mineiro's defence (1.41x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 61/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
America Mineiro Win
41%
2.42
28%
3.63
31%
3.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
America Mineiro xG
Total xG
2.54
1.16
Vasco DA Gama xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
3.22
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
31%
3.19
25%
3.97
Win to Nil
13%
7.71
8%
12.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 9.1 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.6 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.7 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for America Mineiro vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are America Mineiro and Vasco DA Gama expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for America Mineiro and 1.16 for Vasco DA Gama, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for America Mineiro vs Vasco DA Gama?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
America Mineiro's recent record stands at 4W 5D 14L from 23 games, a 0.74 PPG return, with L-W-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for America Mineiro is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Vasco DA Gama, meanwhile, have gone 6W 5D 12L across 23 games — 1.00 PPG, with W-L-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Vasco DA Gama is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.74 PPG for America Mineiro against 1.00 for Vasco DA Gama. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, America Mineiro have managed 4W 1D 6L from 11 games — 1.18 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.74 PPG overall — America Mineiro are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Vasco DA Gama's away record stands at 1W 4D 6L across 11 trips, a 0.64 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, America Mineiro come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
America Mineiro are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 2.13 conceded per game recently; Vasco DA Gama are on 1.09 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: America Mineiro have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 23 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
America Mineiro
Blended
Vasco DA Gama
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are America Mineiro and Vasco DA Gama in coming into this match?
America Mineiro have gone 4W 5D 14L in their last 23 games (0.74 PPG), while Vasco DA Gama have gone 6W 5D 12L in their last 23 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — America Mineiro at home or Vasco DA Gama away?
America Mineiro's home record (1.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — America Mineiro at home: 1.18 PPG; Vasco DA Gama away: 0.64 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since September 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 November 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
America Mineiro
0
Draws
2
Vasco DA Gama
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between America Mineiro and Vasco DA Gama?
From 2 meetings on record, America Mineiro have won 0, Vasco DA Gama have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did America Mineiro and Vasco DA Gama last play each other?
They last met on 12 November 2023, when Vasco DA Gama 2-1 America Mineiro.
Who has won more matches between America Mineiro and Vasco DA Gama?
Vasco DA Gama have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
America Mineiro are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Vasco DA Gama are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — America Mineiro 54%, Vasco DA Gama 73% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (America Mineiro) and 36% (Vasco DA Gama).
On the defensive side: America Mineiro have failed to score in 27% of games; Vasco DA Gama in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = America Mineiro home games / Vasco DA Gama away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when America Mineiro play Vasco DA Gama?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of America Mineiro's games and 73% of Vasco DA Gama's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is America Mineiro vs Vasco DA Gama usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of America Mineiro's recent games and 36% of Vasco DA Gama's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do America Mineiro and Vasco DA Gama tend to score early?
America Mineiro have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Vasco DA Gama in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Vasco DA Gama defy the odds to beat America Mineiro 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vasco DA Gama beat America Mineiro 0-1 at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio, Regular Season - 15, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting America Mineiro 1.38 xG and Vasco DA Gama 1.16 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. America Mineiro fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of America Mineiro attack 0.89 / defence 1.41 against Vasco DA Gama attack 0.85 / defence 1.14, drawn from 61/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it America Mineiro 41% | Draw 28% | Vasco DA Gama 31%, with America Mineiro to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Vasco DA Gama win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (America Mineiro 74%, Vasco DA Gama 35%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
America Mineiro's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Vasco DA Gama's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — America Mineiro 0.74 PPG, Vasco DA Gama 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Vasco DA Gama win broke the near-deadlock. America Mineiro (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward. Vasco DA Gama (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.73 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.