America Mineiro 1-2 Fortaleza EC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates America Mineiro at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this America Mineiro vs Fortaleza EC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 32 sees Fortaleza EC travel to Estádio Raimundo Sampaio to take on America Mineiro. The game is scheduled for Sunday 16 October 2022, 00:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, America Mineiro stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
America Mineiro at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Fortaleza EC — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
On the road, Fortaleza EC have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: America Mineiro 1.80 PPG, Fortaleza EC 2.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for America Mineiro, 2 for Fortaleza EC and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Jun 2022, ended 0–1 with Fortaleza EC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
America Mineiro in-play and half-time data (69 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Fortaleza EC in-play and half-time data (69 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — America Mineiro 39% versus Fortaleza EC 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (America Mineiro 28% | Fortaleza EC 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects America Mineiro 1.03 xG and Fortaleza EC 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: America Mineiro attack 0.880 / defence 0.985 | Fortaleza EC attack 1.054 / defence 0.884. League average goals — home 1.330 / away 0.931. Data: 69 America Mineiro games / 69 Fortaleza EC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: America Mineiro 36% | Draw 31% | Fortaleza EC 33%. Fair-value odds: America Mineiro 2.78 | Draw 3.23 | Fortaleza EC 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, America Mineiro are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on America Mineiro offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.00 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates corroborate: America Mineiro 30% | Fortaleza EC 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: America Mineiro vs Fortaleza EC | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Estádio Raimundo Sampaio • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Oct 2022, 00:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: America Mineiro 36% | Draw 31% | Fortaleza EC 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 40% | xG America Mineiro 1.03 / Fortaleza EC 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: America Mineiro attack 0.880 / def 0.985 | Fortaleza EC attack 1.054 / def 0.884 | league avg home 1.330 / away 0.931 • Poisson stance: America Mineiro (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
America Mineiro xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Fortaleza EC xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does America Mineiro vs Fortaleza EC kick off?
America Mineiro vs Fortaleza EC kicked off at 00:30 on Sunday 16 October 2022 at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio.
What was the final score in America Mineiro vs Fortaleza EC?
America Mineiro 1 - 2 Fortaleza EC.
Where is America Mineiro vs Fortaleza EC being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio.
What competition is America Mineiro vs Fortaleza EC part of?
America Mineiro vs Fortaleza EC is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win America Mineiro vs Fortaleza EC?
Our statistical model gives America Mineiro a 36% chance of winning, Fortaleza EC a 33% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making America Mineiro the favourite.
Will both teams score in America Mineiro vs Fortaleza EC?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both America Mineiro and Fortaleza EC will score (BTTS).
Will America Mineiro vs Fortaleza EC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between America Mineiro and Fortaleza EC?
Record (3 meetings): America Mineiro 1W | Draws 0 | Fortaleza EC 2W.
What form are America Mineiro and Fortaleza EC in?
America Mineiro (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Fortaleza EC (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates America Mineiro's attack at 0.88x the league average against Fortaleza EC's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 1.03 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Fortaleza EC's attack versus America Mineiro's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 69/69 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 1-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
America Mineiro Win
36%
2.76
31%
3.23
33%
3.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
America Mineiro xG
Total xG
2.00
0.97
Fortaleza EC xG
2.76
36%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
3.05
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.50
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
38%
2.63
36%
2.81
Win to Nil
14%
7.25
12%
8.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.5 | 13.1 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.0 | 13.5 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 7.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for America Mineiro vs Fortaleza EC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are America Mineiro and Fortaleza EC expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for America Mineiro and 0.97 for Fortaleza EC, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for America Mineiro vs Fortaleza EC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 69 outings, America Mineiro have picked up 1.42 PPG on a 26W 20D 23L record — W-L-W-L-W across the most recent five.
Fortaleza EC's form line: 28W 15D 26L from 69 games, 1.43 PPG, last five D-W-W-D-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: America Mineiro on 1.42 PPG, Fortaleza EC on 1.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, America Mineiro have posted 1.76 PPG from 34 outings (17W 9D 8L).
On the road, Fortaleza EC have gone 11W 5D 18L from 34 away games — 1.12 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, America Mineiro come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
America Mineiro are averaging 1.01 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Fortaleza EC are on 1.10 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Defensively: Fortaleza EC in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 69 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
America Mineiro
Current Season
Fortaleza EC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are America Mineiro and Fortaleza EC in coming into this match?
America Mineiro have gone 26W 20D 23L in their last 69 games (1.42 PPG), while Fortaleza EC have gone 28W 15D 26L in their last 69 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — America Mineiro at home or Fortaleza EC away?
America Mineiro's home record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — America Mineiro at home: 1.76 PPG; Fortaleza EC away: 1.12 PPG.
Have America Mineiro or Fortaleza EC been keeping clean sheets recently?
America Mineiro have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Fortaleza EC in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between America Mineiro and Fortaleza EC runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 October 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Jul 2021, when Fortaleza EC won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
America Mineiro's record when hosting Fortaleza EC specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
America Mineiro
0
Draws
4
Fortaleza EC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between America Mineiro and Fortaleza EC?
From 6 meetings on record, America Mineiro have won 2, Fortaleza EC have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did America Mineiro and Fortaleza EC last play each other?
They last met on 8 October 2023, when Fortaleza EC 3-2 America Mineiro.
Who has won more matches between America Mineiro and Fortaleza EC?
Fortaleza EC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
America Mineiro see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Fortaleza EC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — America Mineiro 35%, Fortaleza EC 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 26% (America Mineiro) and 47% (Fortaleza EC).
On the defensive side: America Mineiro keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; America Mineiro have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = America Mineiro home games / Fortaleza EC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when America Mineiro play Fortaleza EC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of America Mineiro's recent matches and 53% of Fortaleza EC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is America Mineiro vs Fortaleza EC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 26% of America Mineiro's recent games and 47% of Fortaleza EC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do America Mineiro and Fortaleza EC tend to score early?
America Mineiro have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Fortaleza EC in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Fortaleza EC defy the odds to beat America Mineiro 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fortaleza EC beat America Mineiro 1-2 at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio, Regular Season - 32, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting America Mineiro 1.03 xG and Fortaleza EC 0.97 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Fortaleza EC outscored their 0.97 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of America Mineiro attack 0.88 / defence 0.98 against Fortaleza EC attack 1.05 / defence 0.88, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it America Mineiro 36% | Draw 31% | Fortaleza EC 33%, with America Mineiro to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Fortaleza EC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (America Mineiro 28%, Fortaleza EC 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
America Mineiro's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Fortaleza EC's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — America Mineiro 1.42 PPG, Fortaleza EC 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fortaleza EC win broke the near-deadlock. America Mineiro (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fortaleza EC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.