Zulte Waregem 2-1 Genk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Genk at 37% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Zulte Waregem vs Genk encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Zulte Waregem and Genk meet at Elindus Arena in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 1. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 9 August 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Zulte Waregem's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Zulte Waregem haven't played a Jupiler Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Zulte Waregem's home record at Elindus Arena: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Jupiler Pro League appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Genk (all games): 3W 6D 1L across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W D D W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Genk haven't played a Jupiler Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Genk away from home this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.90 for Zulte Waregem, 1.50 for Genk — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Genk hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 5 wins from 6 meetings. The hosts have won just 1 times in that span.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Jan 2026, ended 2–1 with Zulte Waregem winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Genk have won 5 of 6 previous encounters, and at 4.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Zulte Waregem goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Genk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zulte Waregem 61% versus Genk 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zulte Waregem 53% | Genk 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zulte Waregem 1.50 xG and Genk 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zulte Waregem attack 0.979 / defence 0.974 | Genk attack 1.090 / defence 1.116. League average goals — home 1.378 / away 1.441. Data: 30 Zulte Waregem games / 30 Genk games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Zulte Waregem 36% | Draw 27% | Genk 37%. Fair-value odds: Zulte Waregem 2.78 | Draw 3.70 | Genk 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.50 / 1.53) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Genk are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Genk if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.04 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Zulte Waregem 50% | Genk 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zulte Waregem vs Genk | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Elindus Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Aug 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zulte Waregem 36% | Draw 27% | Genk 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 62% | xG Zulte Waregem 1.50 / Genk 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: Zulte Waregem attack 0.979 / def 0.974 | Genk attack 1.090 / def 1.116 | league avg home 1.378 / away 1.441 • Poisson stance: Genk (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Zulte Waregem xG
Expected Goals
1.53
Genk xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zulte Waregem vs Genk kick off?
Zulte Waregem vs Genk kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 9 August 2026 at Elindus Arena.
What was the final score in Zulte Waregem vs Genk?
Zulte Waregem 2 - 1 Genk.
Where is Zulte Waregem vs Genk being played?
The match is being played at Elindus Arena.
What competition is Zulte Waregem vs Genk part of?
Zulte Waregem vs Genk is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Zulte Waregem vs Genk?
Our statistical model gives Zulte Waregem a 36% chance of winning, Genk a 37% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Genk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zulte Waregem vs Genk?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Zulte Waregem and Genk will score (BTTS).
Will Zulte Waregem vs Genk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zulte Waregem and Genk?
Record (6 meetings): Zulte Waregem 1W | Draws 0 | Genk 5W.
What form are Zulte Waregem and Genk in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Zulte Waregem (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Zulte Waregem's attack at 0.98x the league average against Genk's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Genk's attack (1.09x) against Zulte Waregem's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.53.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Genk Win
36%
2.77
27%
3.76
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Zulte Waregem xG
Total xG
3.04
1.53
Genk xG
2.77
36%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
22%
4.62
22%
4.50
Win to Nil
8%
12.79
8%
12.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 7.4 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.1 | 8.5 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.3 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.2 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zulte Waregem vs Genk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Zulte Waregem and Genk expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Zulte Waregem and 1.53 for Genk, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Zulte Waregem vs Genk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Zulte Waregem come into this having played 36 games, going 13W 9D 14L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W. Zulte Waregem haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Genk sit at 1.47 PPG from 36 outings (13W 14D 9L), a run that reads W-D-D-W-D across their last five. Genk haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Zulte Waregem against 1.47 for Genk. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Zulte Waregem's home form reads 8W 4D 6L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.56 PPG return.
Away from home, Genk have taken 1.56 points per game from 18 outings (7W 7D 4L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Zulte Waregem are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Genk are on 1.36 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zulte Waregem have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 36 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zulte Waregem
Pre-Season
Genk
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zulte Waregem and Genk in coming into this match?
Zulte Waregem have gone 13W 9D 14L in their last 36 games (1.33 PPG), while Genk have gone 13W 14D 9L in their last 36 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zulte Waregem at home or Genk away?
Zulte Waregem's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zulte Waregem at home: 1.56 PPG; Genk away: 1.56 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Zulte Waregem have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Genk won 2-6 on 31 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Zulte Waregem have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Genk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Zulte Waregem
0
Draws
5
Genk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zulte Waregem and Genk?
From 7 meetings on record, Zulte Waregem have won 2, Genk have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Zulte Waregem and Genk last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when Zulte Waregem 2-1 Genk.
Who has won more matches between Zulte Waregem and Genk?
Genk have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Zulte Waregem are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Genk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zulte Waregem 50%, Genk 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Zulte Waregem) and 61% (Genk).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zulte Waregem home games / Genk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zulte Waregem play Genk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Zulte Waregem's games and 67% of Genk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Zulte Waregem vs Genk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Zulte Waregem's recent games and 61% of Genk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Zulte Waregem and Genk tend to score early?
Zulte Waregem have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Genk in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Zulte Waregem defy the odds to beat Genk 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zulte Waregem beat Genk 2-1 at Elindus Arena, Regular Season - 1, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zulte Waregem 1.50 xG and Genk 1.53 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zulte Waregem attack 0.98 / defence 0.97 against Genk attack 1.09 / defence 1.12, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zulte Waregem 36% | Draw 27% | Genk 37%, with Genk to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Zulte Waregem win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zulte Waregem 53%, Genk 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zulte Waregem's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Genk's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Zulte Waregem 1.33 PPG, Genk 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Zulte Waregem win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.