Zulte Waregem 3-0 AS Eupen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Zulte Waregem at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Zulte Waregem vs AS Eupen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 31 sees AS Eupen travel to Elindus Arena to take on Zulte Waregem. The game is scheduled for Saturday 12 March 2022, 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Zulte Waregem — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Zulte Waregem's home record at Elindus Arena: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Jupiler Pro League appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, AS Eupen stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
AS Eupen's away record: 0W 3D 7L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Zulte Waregem at 0.90 PPG versus AS Eupen's 0.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Zulte Waregem have won 0, AS Eupen 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Nov 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Zulte Waregem trading profile (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
AS Eupen trading profile (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 37% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Zulte Waregem 67% and AS Eupen 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zulte Waregem 67% | AS Eupen 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zulte Waregem 1.26 xG and AS Eupen 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zulte Waregem attack 0.840 / defence 1.228 | AS Eupen attack 0.641 / defence 1.323. League average goals — home 1.134 / away 1.355. AS Eupen bring a strong defensive rating of 1.323 — this is suppressing Zulte Waregem's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 30 Zulte Waregem games / 30 AS Eupen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zulte Waregem 40% | Draw 29% | AS Eupen 31%. Fair-value odds: Zulte Waregem 2.50 | Draw 3.45 | AS Eupen 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Zulte Waregem are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zulte Waregem offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.33 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: Zulte Waregem 60% | AS Eupen 40%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zulte Waregem vs AS Eupen | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Elindus Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Mar 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zulte Waregem 40% | Draw 29% | AS Eupen 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Zulte Waregem 1.26 / AS Eupen 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Zulte Waregem attack 0.840 / def 1.228 | AS Eupen attack 0.641 / def 1.323 | league avg home 1.134 / away 1.355 • Poisson stance: Zulte Waregem (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Zulte Waregem xG
Expected Goals
1.07
AS Eupen xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zulte Waregem vs AS Eupen kick off?
Zulte Waregem vs AS Eupen kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 12 March 2022 at Elindus Arena.
What was the final score in Zulte Waregem vs AS Eupen?
Zulte Waregem 3 - 0 AS Eupen.
Where is Zulte Waregem vs AS Eupen being played?
The match is being played at Elindus Arena.
What competition is Zulte Waregem vs AS Eupen part of?
Zulte Waregem vs AS Eupen is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Zulte Waregem vs AS Eupen?
Our statistical model gives Zulte Waregem a 40% chance of winning, AS Eupen a 31% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Zulte Waregem the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zulte Waregem vs AS Eupen?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Zulte Waregem and AS Eupen will score (BTTS).
Will Zulte Waregem vs AS Eupen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zulte Waregem and AS Eupen?
Record (1 meetings): Zulte Waregem 0W | Draws 1 | AS Eupen 0W.
What form are Zulte Waregem and AS Eupen in?
Zulte Waregem (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. AS Eupen (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Zulte Waregem's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against AS Eupen's defensive record (1.32x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.26. The same calculation in reverse, AS Eupen's attack versus Zulte Waregem's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 1-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zulte Waregem Win
40%
2.47
29%
3.49
31%
3.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Zulte Waregem xG
Total xG
2.33
1.07
AS Eupen xG
2.47
40%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
3.24
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
34%
2.90
28%
3.53
Win to Nil
14%
7.18
9%
11.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 10.4 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.1 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.3 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zulte Waregem vs AS Eupen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Zulte Waregem and AS Eupen expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Zulte Waregem and 1.07 for AS Eupen, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Zulte Waregem vs AS Eupen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Zulte Waregem come into this having played 30 games, going 7W 8D 15L for 0.97 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-W-L.
On the other side, AS Eupen sit at 1.03 PPG from 30 outings (8W 7D 15L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Zulte Waregem on 0.97 PPG, AS Eupen on 1.03. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Zulte Waregem's home form reads 4W 4D 7L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.07 PPG return.
Away from home, AS Eupen have taken 1.07 points per game from 15 outings (4W 4D 7L).
Goals in Recent Form
Zulte Waregem are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game recently; AS Eupen are on 1.20 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zulte Waregem have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 30 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zulte Waregem
Current Season
AS Eupen
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zulte Waregem and AS Eupen in coming into this match?
Zulte Waregem have gone 7W 8D 15L in their last 30 games (0.97 PPG), while AS Eupen have gone 8W 7D 15L in their last 30 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zulte Waregem at home or AS Eupen away?
Zulte Waregem's home record (1.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zulte Waregem at home: 1.07 PPG; AS Eupen away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Jupiler Pro League, Challenger Pro League all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Zulte Waregem have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Apr 2023, when Zulte Waregem won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Zulte Waregem's record when hosting AS Eupen specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Zulte Waregem
2
Draws
0
AS Eupen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zulte Waregem and AS Eupen?
From 6 meetings on record, Zulte Waregem have won 4, AS Eupen have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Zulte Waregem and AS Eupen last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2025, when Zulte Waregem 3-2 AS Eupen.
Who has won more matches between Zulte Waregem and AS Eupen?
Zulte Waregem have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Zulte Waregem are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
AS Eupen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zulte Waregem 67%, AS Eupen 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Zulte Waregem and 60% for AS Eupen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: AS Eupen in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zulte Waregem home games / AS Eupen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zulte Waregem play AS Eupen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Zulte Waregem's games and 53% of AS Eupen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Zulte Waregem vs AS Eupen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Zulte Waregem's matches and 60% of AS Eupen's.
Do Zulte Waregem and AS Eupen tend to score early?
Zulte Waregem have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, AS Eupen in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Zulte Waregem run riot with a 3-0 hammering of AS Eupen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zulte Waregem beat AS Eupen 3-0 at Elindus Arena, Regular Season - 31, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zulte Waregem 1.26 xG and AS Eupen 1.07 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Zulte Waregem beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. AS Eupen landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zulte Waregem attack 0.84 / defence 1.23 against AS Eupen attack 0.64 / defence 1.32, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zulte Waregem 40% | Draw 29% | AS Eupen 31%, with Zulte Waregem to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zulte Waregem 67%, AS Eupen 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zulte Waregem's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
AS Eupen's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Zulte Waregem 0.97 PPG, AS Eupen 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Zulte Waregem win broke the near-deadlock. Zulte Waregem (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. AS Eupen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.