Union St. Gilloise vs Gent – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Union St. Gilloise at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Union St. Gilloise vs Gent encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Union St. Gilloise and Gent meet at Stade Joseph Marien in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 29 November 2026 at 18:15 UTC.
Current Form
Union St. Gilloise's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 7W 3D 0L from 10 games (2.40 PPG). Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Union St. Gilloise, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Joseph Marien, Union St. Gilloise have gone 7W 3D 0L this season (10 games, 2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Joseph Marien. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Gent have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: W W D W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Gent, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gent's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.40 vs 2.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Historically, Union St. Gilloise have had the better of this match-up — 4 wins from 10 meetings, with Gent managing just 0 victories and 6 draws shared.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 May 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The historical record gives Union St. Gilloise a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 10 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Union St. Gilloise — key trading statistics (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Gent — key trading statistics (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union St. Gilloise 44% versus Gent 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union St. Gilloise 44% | Gent 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union St. Gilloise 1.28 xG and Gent 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.191 / defence 0.708 | Gent attack 1.193 / defence 0.682. League average goals — home 1.582 / away 1.301. Gent's defence strength of 0.682 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Union St. Gilloise's defence rating of 0.708 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 38 Union St. Gilloise games / 38 Gent games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 41% | Draw 28% | Gent 32%. Fair-value odds: Union St. Gilloise 2.44 | Draw 3.57 | Gent 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Union St. Gilloise are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Union St. Gilloise if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.38 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Union St. Gilloise 30% | Gent 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union St. Gilloise vs Gent | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stade Joseph Marien • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Nov 2026, 18:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 41% | Draw 28% | Gent 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Union St. Gilloise 1.28 / Gent 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.191 / def 0.708 | Gent attack 1.193 / def 0.682 | league avg home 1.582 / away 1.301 • Poisson stance: Union St. Gilloise (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Union St. Gilloise xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Gent xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union St. Gilloise vs Gent kick off?
Union St. Gilloise vs Gent is scheduled to kick off at 18:15 on Sunday 29 November 2026 at Stade Joseph Marien.
Where is Union St. Gilloise vs Gent being played?
The match is being played at Stade Joseph Marien.
What competition is Union St. Gilloise vs Gent part of?
Union St. Gilloise vs Gent is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Union St. Gilloise vs Gent?
Our statistical model gives Union St. Gilloise a 41% chance of winning, Gent a 32% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Union St. Gilloise the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union St. Gilloise vs Gent?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Union St. Gilloise and Gent will score (BTTS).
Will Union St. Gilloise vs Gent have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and Gent?
Record (10 meetings): Union St. Gilloise 4W | Draws 6 | Gent 0W.
What form are Union St. Gilloise and Gent in?
Union St. Gilloise (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Gent (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Union St. Gilloise's attack at 1.19x the league average against Gent's defence at 0.68x — combine the two and it projects 1.28 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Gent's attack (1.19x) against Union St. Gilloise's defence (0.71x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union St. Gilloise Win
41%
2.46
28%
3.62
32%
3.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Union St. Gilloise xG
Total xG
2.38
1.10
Gent xG
2.46
41%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
3.16
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
28%
3.61
Win to Nil
14%
7.37
9%
11.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 10.1 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.0 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.4 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union St. Gilloise vs Gent?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Union St. Gilloise and Gent expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Union St. Gilloise and 1.10 for Gent, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Union St. Gilloise vs Gent?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Union St. Gilloise come into this having played 48 games, going 31W 13D 4L for 2.21 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-D. The sample for Union St. Gilloise is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Gent sit at 1.54 PPG from 48 outings (20W 14D 14L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Gent is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Union St. Gilloise carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.67 PPG clear of Gent — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Union St. Gilloise's home form reads 19W 4D 0L across 23 games on their own ground, a 2.65 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 2.21 PPG overall — Union St. Gilloise are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Gent have taken 1.35 points per game from 23 outings (8W 7D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union St. Gilloise come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Union St. Gilloise are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 0.65 conceded per game recently; Gent are on 1.40 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Defensively: Union St. Gilloise have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union St. Gilloise
Blended
Gent
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union St. Gilloise and Gent in coming into this match?
Union St. Gilloise have gone 31W 13D 4L in their last 48 games (2.21 PPG), while Gent have gone 20W 14D 14L in their last 48 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union St. Gilloise at home or Gent away?
Union St. Gilloise's home record (2.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union St. Gilloise at home: 2.65 PPG; Gent away: 1.35 PPG.
Have Union St. Gilloise or Gent been keeping clean sheets recently?
Union St. Gilloise have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Gent in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 21 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Union St. Gilloise won 0-3 on 5 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Union St. Gilloise have gone 1W 4D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Gent — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Union St. Gilloise
6
Draws
0
Gent
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and Gent?
From 10 meetings on record, Union St. Gilloise have won 4, Gent have won 0, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Union St. Gilloise and Gent last play each other?
They last met on 21 May 2026, when Gent 0-0 Union St. Gilloise.
Who has won more matches between Union St. Gilloise and Gent?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Gent are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union St. Gilloise 35%, Gent 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Union St. Gilloise) and 56% (Gent).
On the defensive side: Union St. Gilloise keep a clean sheet in 65% of their matches; Gent in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union St. Gilloise home games / Gent away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union St. Gilloise play Gent?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Union St. Gilloise's recent matches and 56% of Gent's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Union St. Gilloise vs Gent usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Union St. Gilloise's recent games and 56% of Gent's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Union St. Gilloise and Gent tend to score early?
Union St. Gilloise have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Gent in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.