Union St. Gilloise 0-0 Gent – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Union St. Gilloise at 49% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Union St. Gilloise face Gent.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Union St. Gilloise and Gent meet at Stade Joseph Mariën in Jupiler Pro League (matchday 11). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 19 October 2024 at 20:45 UK time.
Current Form
Union St. Gilloise's record over their last 10 games: 3W 5D 2L (1.40 PPG). Last five: D L D W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home, Union St. Gilloise have gone 5W 3D 2L in their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Gent have collected 1.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W W L W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Gent's away record over their last 10 away games: 6W 1D 3L (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for Union St. Gilloise, 0 for Gent and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 10 Mar 2024, ended Union St. Gilloise 1–1 Gent — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Union St. Gilloise — key trading statistics (last 50 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Gent — key trading statistics (last 50 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Union St. Gilloise 58% and Gent 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union St. Gilloise 58% | Gent 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union St. Gilloise 1.57 xG and Gent 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.034 / defence 0.759 | Gent attack 1.161 / defence 0.955. League average goals — home 1.588 / away 1.046. Union St. Gilloise have a tight defence (rating 0.759), which is pulling Gent's projected output down. Data: built from Union St. Gilloise's last 40 games and Gent's last 40.
Result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 49% | Draw 31% | Gent 19%. Fair-value odds: Union St. Gilloise 2.02 | Draw 3.19 | Gent 5.22. Union St. Gilloise hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Union St. Gilloise are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Union St. Gilloise if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.49 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Union St. Gilloise 50% (last 10 home games) | Gent 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union St. Gilloise vs Gent | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, matchday 11 | Venue: Stade Joseph Mariën • Kick-off: Saturday 19 October 2024 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 49% | Draw 31% | Gent 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Union St. Gilloise 1.57 / Gent 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.034 / def 0.759 | Gent attack 1.161 / def 0.955 | league avg home 1.588 / away 1.046 • Poisson stance: Union St. Gilloise (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Union St. Gilloise xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Gent xG
51%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Union St. Gilloise vs Gent FAQs
What time does Union St. Gilloise vs Gent kick off?
Union St. Gilloise vs Gent kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Saturday 19 October 2024 at Stade Joseph Mariën.
What was the final score in Union St. Gilloise vs Gent?
Union St. Gilloise 0 - 0 Gent.
Where is Union St. Gilloise vs Gent being played?
The match is being played at Stade Joseph Mariën.
What competition is Union St. Gilloise vs Gent part of?
Union St. Gilloise vs Gent is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (matchday 11) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Union St. Gilloise vs Gent?
Our statistical model gives Union St. Gilloise a 49% chance of winning, Gent a 19% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Union St. Gilloise the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union St. Gilloise vs Gent?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Union St. Gilloise and Gent will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Union St. Gilloise vs Gent have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Union St. Gilloise's attack at 1.03x the league average against Gent's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.57 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Gent's attack (1.16x) against Union St. Gilloise's defence (0.76x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from Union St. Gilloise's last 40 games and Gent's last 40 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.4%), 2-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union St. Gilloise Win
49%
2.02
31%
3.19
19%
5.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Union St. Gilloise xG
Total xG
2.49
0.92
Gent xG
2.02
49%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
5.22
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
21%
4.80
Win to Nil
20%
5.08
4%
25.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 7.6 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.0 | 12.0 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.4 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Union St. Gilloise vs Gent Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Union St. Gilloise vs Gent?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Union St. Gilloise and Gent expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Union St. Gilloise and 0.92 for Gent, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Union St. Gilloise vs Gent?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Union St. Gilloise come into this having played 50 games, going 28W 14D 8L for 1.96 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-W-D.
On the other side, Gent sit at 1.76 PPG from 50 outings (25W 13D 12L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.96 PPG for Union St. Gilloise against 1.76 for Gent. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Union St. Gilloise's home form reads 16W 5D 3L across their last 24 home games, a 2.21 PPG return.
Away from home, Gent have taken 1.50 points per game from their last 24 away games (10W 6D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union St. Gilloise come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Union St. Gilloise are averaging 1.82 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Gent are on 1.92 scored and 1.12 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Gent in 62%.
Last 50 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union St. Gilloise
Blended
Gent
Blended
Union St. Gilloise (Home) vs Gent (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Union St. Gilloise
Blended
Gent
Blended
❓ Union St. Gilloise vs Gent Form FAQs
What form are Union St. Gilloise and Gent in coming into this match?
Union St. Gilloise have gone 28W 14D 8L in their last 50 games (1.96 PPG), while Gent have gone 25W 13D 12L in their last 50 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union St. Gilloise at home or Gent away?
Union St. Gilloise's home record (2.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union St. Gilloise at home: 2.21 PPG; Gent away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Union St. Gilloise or Gent been keeping clean sheets recently?
Union St. Gilloise have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Gent in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Union St. Gilloise and Gent, the earliest from November 2023. All of them came in Jupiler Pro League. The most recent was on 21 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The most recent 3 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Union St. Gilloise won Gent 0-3 Union St. Gilloise on 5 Apr 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Union St. Gilloise have gone 1W 4D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Gent — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Union St. Gilloise
6
Draws
0
Gent
Recent Meetings
❓ Union St. Gilloise vs Gent H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and Gent?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Union St. Gilloise have won 4, Gent have won 0, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Union St. Gilloise and Gent last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 May 2026: Gent 0-0 Union St. Gilloise.
Who has won more matches between Union St. Gilloise and Gent?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Gent are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union St. Gilloise 62%, Gent 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Union St. Gilloise) and 42% (Gent).
On the defensive side: Union St. Gilloise keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union St. Gilloise home games / Gent away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Union St. Gilloise vs Gent Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Union St. Gilloise and Gent matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Union St. Gilloise's games and 54% of Gent's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Union St. Gilloise and Gent matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Union St. Gilloise's recent games and 42% of Gent's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Union St. Gilloise and Gent matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Union St. Gilloise's recent matches and 71% of Gent's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Union St. Gilloise's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union St. Gilloise and Gent finished level at 0-0 at Stade Joseph Mariën, Regular Season - 11, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union St. Gilloise 1.57 xG and Gent 0.92 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Union St. Gilloise fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Gent landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union St. Gilloise attack 1.03 / defence 0.76 against Gent attack 1.16 / defence 0.95, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union St. Gilloise 49% | Draw 31% | Gent 19%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union St. Gilloise 58%, Gent 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Gent's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Union St. Gilloise 1.96 PPG, Gent 1.76 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Union St. Gilloise (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.08 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line. Gent (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.54 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.