Union St. Gilloise 4-1 Dender – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Union St. Gilloise at 61% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Union St. Gilloise vs Dender encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Dender make the trip to Stade Joseph Mariën to face Union St. Gilloise in Jupiler Pro League (matchday 28). The match kicks off on Saturday 1 March 2025 at 19:45 UK time.
Current Form
Union St. Gilloise's record over their last 10 games: 8W 1D 1L (2.50 PPG). Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Union St. Gilloise at home: 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 2.00 lags behind their overall 2.50 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Dender have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
On the road, Dender have gone 2W 2D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Union St. Gilloise's 2.50 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of Dender's 1.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 0 wins for Union St. Gilloise, 0 for Dender and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been tight, averaging just 0.0 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 27 Jul 2024, ended Union St. Gilloise 0–0 Dender — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Union St. Gilloise — key trading statistics (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games).
Dender — key trading statistics (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union St. Gilloise 61% versus Dender 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union St. Gilloise 58% | Dender 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union St. Gilloise 2.14 xG and Dender 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.029 / defence 0.887 | Dender attack 0.990 / defence 1.425. League average goals — home 1.461 / away 1.144. Dender's defence rating of 1.425 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Union St. Gilloise's projected output up. Data: built from Union St. Gilloise's last 57 games and Dender's last 27.
Result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 61% | Draw 25% | Dender 14%. Fair-value odds: Union St. Gilloise 1.64 | Draw 4.00 | Dender 7.04. The model has a clear lean to Union St. Gilloise (61%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Union St. Gilloise as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.15 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Union St. Gilloise's last 10 home games and Dender's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Union St. Gilloise 50% (last 10 home games) | Dender 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union St. Gilloise vs Dender | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, matchday 28 | Venue: Stade Joseph Mariën • Kick-off: Saturday 1 March 2025 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 61% | Draw 25% | Dender 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% (Under 39%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Union St. Gilloise 2.14 / Dender 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.029 / def 0.887 | Dender attack 0.990 / def 1.425 | league avg home 1.461 / away 1.144 • Poisson stance: Union St. Gilloise (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.14
Union St. Gilloise xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Dender xG
59%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Union St. Gilloise vs Dender FAQs
What time does Union St. Gilloise vs Dender kick off?
Union St. Gilloise vs Dender kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Saturday 1 March 2025 at Stade Joseph Mariën.
What was the final score in Union St. Gilloise vs Dender?
Union St. Gilloise 4 - 1 Dender.
Where is Union St. Gilloise vs Dender being played?
The match is being played at Stade Joseph Mariën.
What competition is Union St. Gilloise vs Dender part of?
Union St. Gilloise vs Dender is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (matchday 28) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Union St. Gilloise vs Dender?
Our statistical model gives Union St. Gilloise a 61% chance of winning, Dender a 14% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Union St. Gilloise the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union St. Gilloise vs Dender?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Union St. Gilloise and Dender will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Union St. Gilloise vs Dender have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Union St. Gilloise's attack rating (1.03) and Dender's defence rating (1.43), the model arrives at 2.14 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Dender's attack (0.99x) against Union St. Gilloise's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from Union St. Gilloise's last 57 games and Dender's last 27 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union St. Gilloise Win
61%
1.64
25%
4.00
14%
7.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.14
Union St. Gilloise xG
Total xG
3.15
1.00
Dender xG
1.64
61%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
7.04
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
12%
8.52
Win to Nil
22%
4.49
2%
59.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.2 | 9.3 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.0 | 7.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Union St. Gilloise vs Dender Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Union St. Gilloise vs Dender?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Union St. Gilloise and Dender expected to score?
The model projects 2.14 expected goals for Union St. Gilloise and 1.00 for Dender, a combined total of 3.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Union St. Gilloise vs Dender?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 57 outings, Union St. Gilloise have picked up 1.95 PPG on a 31W 18D 8L record — W-W-W-L-W across the most recent five.
Dender's form line: 23W 17D 17L from 57 games, 1.51 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-D.
Put side by side, Union St. Gilloise are the form team by 0.44 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Dender.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Union St. Gilloise have posted 2.14 PPG from their last 28 home games (18W 6D 4L).
On the road, Dender have gone 12W 7D 9L from their last 28 away games — 1.54 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union St. Gilloise come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Union St. Gilloise are averaging 1.74 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; Dender are on 1.51 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Union St. Gilloise have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union St. Gilloise
Blended
Dender
Blended
Union St. Gilloise (Home) vs Dender (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Union St. Gilloise
Blended
Dender
Blended
❓ Union St. Gilloise vs Dender Form FAQs
What form are Union St. Gilloise and Dender in coming into this match?
Union St. Gilloise have gone 31W 18D 8L in their last 57 games (1.95 PPG), while Dender have gone 23W 17D 17L in their last 57 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union St. Gilloise at home or Dender away?
Union St. Gilloise's home record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union St. Gilloise at home: 2.14 PPG; Dender away: 1.54 PPG.
Have Union St. Gilloise or Dender been keeping clean sheets recently?
Union St. Gilloise have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Dender in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Union St. Gilloise and Dender, the earliest from July 2024. All of them came in Jupiler Pro League. The most recent was on 14 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Union St. Gilloise have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Union St. Gilloise won Union St. Gilloise 4-1 Dender on 1 Mar 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Union St. Gilloise have gone 2W 0D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Dender — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Union St. Gilloise
1
Draws
0
Dender
Recent Meetings
❓ Union St. Gilloise vs Dender H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and Dender?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Union St. Gilloise have won 3, Dender have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Union St. Gilloise and Dender last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 March 2026: Union St. Gilloise 2-0 Dender.
Who has won more matches between Union St. Gilloise and Dender?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Dender are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union St. Gilloise 61%, Dender 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Union St. Gilloise and 61% for Dender. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Union St. Gilloise keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union St. Gilloise home games / Dender away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Union St. Gilloise vs Dender Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Union St. Gilloise and Dender matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Union St. Gilloise's games and 57% of Dender's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Union St. Gilloise and Dender matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Union St. Gilloise's matches and 61% of Dender's.
Do Union St. Gilloise and Dender matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Union St. Gilloise's recent matches and 86% of Dender's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Union St. Gilloise run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Dender.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union St. Gilloise beat Dender 4-1 at Stade Joseph Mariën, Regular Season - 28, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union St. Gilloise 2.14 xG and Dender 1.00 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Union St. Gilloise beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union St. Gilloise attack 1.03 / defence 0.89 against Dender attack 0.99 / defence 1.43, drawn from 57/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union St. Gilloise 61% | Draw 25% | Dender 14%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 61%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union St. Gilloise 58%, Dender 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Dender's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Union St. Gilloise arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.51. That form edge translated into the three points. Union St. Gilloise (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.89 average — above their attacking norm. Dender (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.