Union St. Gilloise 1-0 Club Brugge KV – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Union St. Gilloise at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Union St. Gilloise vs Club Brugge KV fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Union St. Gilloise and Club Brugge KV meet at Stade Joseph Marien in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 23. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 1 February 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
Union St. Gilloise (all games): 4W 5D 1L across 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W D W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Union St. Gilloise, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Union St. Gilloise have posted 9W 1D 0L at Stade Joseph Marien — 2.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 8 clean sheets from 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Joseph Marien. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Union St. Gilloise are significantly better at Stade Joseph Marien than their overall form suggests.
Club Brugge KV have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 6W 0D 4L. Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Club Brugge KV, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Club Brugge KV's away record: 6W 1D 3L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for Union St. Gilloise against 1.80 for Club Brugge KV. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 7 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Union St. Gilloise, 2 for Club Brugge KV and 4 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Oct 2025, ended 0–1 with Club Brugge KV winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Union St. Gilloise — key trading statistics (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 55% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Club Brugge KV — key trading statistics (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union St. Gilloise 44% versus Club Brugge KV 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union St. Gilloise 44% | Club Brugge KV 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union St. Gilloise 1.72 xG and Club Brugge KV 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.249 / defence 0.591 | Club Brugge KV attack 1.425 / defence 1.096. League average goals — home 1.254 / away 1.216. Club Brugge KV have an above-average attack strength of 1.425 — the away xG of 1.02 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Union St. Gilloise's defence rating of 0.591 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 52 Union St. Gilloise games / 52 Club Brugge KV games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 53% | Draw 25% | Club Brugge KV 22%. Fair-value odds: Union St. Gilloise 1.89 | Draw 4.00 | Club Brugge KV 4.55. Union St. Gilloise hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Union St. Gilloise at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Union St. Gilloise if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.74 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Union St. Gilloise 20% | Club Brugge KV 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union St. Gilloise vs Club Brugge KV | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stade Joseph Marien • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Feb 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 53% | Draw 25% | Club Brugge KV 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 53% | xG Union St. Gilloise 1.72 / Club Brugge KV 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.249 / def 0.591 | Club Brugge KV attack 1.425 / def 1.096 | league avg home 1.254 / away 1.216 • Poisson stance: Union St. Gilloise (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Union St. Gilloise xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Club Brugge KV xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union St. Gilloise vs Club Brugge KV kick off?
Union St. Gilloise vs Club Brugge KV kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 1 February 2026 at Stade Joseph Marien.
What was the final score in Union St. Gilloise vs Club Brugge KV?
Union St. Gilloise 1 - 0 Club Brugge KV.
Where is Union St. Gilloise vs Club Brugge KV being played?
The match is being played at Stade Joseph Marien.
What competition is Union St. Gilloise vs Club Brugge KV part of?
Union St. Gilloise vs Club Brugge KV is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Union St. Gilloise vs Club Brugge KV?
Our statistical model gives Union St. Gilloise a 53% chance of winning, Club Brugge KV a 22% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Union St. Gilloise the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union St. Gilloise vs Club Brugge KV?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Union St. Gilloise and Club Brugge KV will score (BTTS).
Will Union St. Gilloise vs Club Brugge KV have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and Club Brugge KV?
Record (7 meetings): Union St. Gilloise 1W | Draws 4 | Club Brugge KV 2W.
What form are Union St. Gilloise and Club Brugge KV in?
Union St. Gilloise (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-D-W-D. Club Brugge KV (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Union St. Gilloise's attack at 1.25x the league average against Club Brugge KV's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.72 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Club Brugge KV's attack (1.43x) against Union St. Gilloise's defence (0.59x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union St. Gilloise Win
53%
1.89
25%
4.00
22%
4.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Union St. Gilloise xG
Total xG
2.74
1.02
Club Brugge KV xG
1.89
53%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
4.55
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
18%
5.57
Win to Nil
19%
5.26
4%
25.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 11.3 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.7 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union St. Gilloise vs Club Brugge KV?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Union St. Gilloise and Club Brugge KV expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Union St. Gilloise and 1.02 for Club Brugge KV, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Union St. Gilloise vs Club Brugge KV?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Union St. Gilloise come into this having played 62 games, going 37W 18D 7L for 2.08 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-W-D. The sample for Union St. Gilloise is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Club Brugge KV sit at 2.03 PPG from 62 outings (38W 12D 12L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Club Brugge KV is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.08 PPG for Union St. Gilloise against 2.03 for Club Brugge KV. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Union St. Gilloise's home form reads 23W 5D 2L across 30 games on their own ground, a 2.47 PPG return.
Away from home, Club Brugge KV have taken 1.93 points per game from 30 outings (17W 7D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union St. Gilloise come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Union St. Gilloise are averaging 1.74 goals scored and 0.65 conceded per game recently; Club Brugge KV are on 2.06 scored and 1.13 conceded. Club Brugge KV's attacking output running into Union St. Gilloise's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Union St. Gilloise have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union St. Gilloise
Blended
Club Brugge KV
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union St. Gilloise and Club Brugge KV in coming into this match?
Union St. Gilloise have gone 37W 18D 7L in their last 62 games (2.08 PPG), while Club Brugge KV have gone 38W 12D 12L in their last 62 (2.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union St. Gilloise at home or Club Brugge KV away?
Union St. Gilloise's home record (2.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union St. Gilloise at home: 2.47 PPG; Club Brugge KV away: 1.93 PPG.
Have Union St. Gilloise or Club Brugge KV been keeping clean sheets recently?
Union St. Gilloise have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Club Brugge KV in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 17 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Club Brugge KV won 5-0 on 17 May 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Union St. Gilloise have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Club Brugge KV — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Union St. Gilloise
4
Draws
3
Club Brugge KV
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and Club Brugge KV?
From 10 meetings on record, Union St. Gilloise have won 3, Club Brugge KV have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Union St. Gilloise and Club Brugge KV last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Club Brugge KV 5-0 Union St. Gilloise.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
Club Brugge KV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union St. Gilloise 37%, Club Brugge KV 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Union St. Gilloise) and 63% (Club Brugge KV). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Union St. Gilloise keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union St. Gilloise home games / Club Brugge KV away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union St. Gilloise play Club Brugge KV?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Union St. Gilloise's recent matches and 63% of Club Brugge KV's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Union St. Gilloise vs Club Brugge KV usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Union St. Gilloise's matches and 63% of Club Brugge KV's.
Do Union St. Gilloise and Club Brugge KV tend to score early?
Union St. Gilloise have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Club Brugge KV in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Union St. Gilloise edge out Club Brugge KV 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union St. Gilloise beat Club Brugge KV 1-0 at Stade Joseph Marien, Regular Season - 23, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union St. Gilloise 1.72 xG and Club Brugge KV 1.02 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Club Brugge KV landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union St. Gilloise attack 1.25 / defence 0.59 against Club Brugge KV attack 1.43 / defence 1.10, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union St. Gilloise 53% | Draw 25% | Club Brugge KV 22%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union St. Gilloise 44%, Club Brugge KV 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Club Brugge KV's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Union St. Gilloise 2.08 PPG, Club Brugge KV 2.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Union St. Gilloise win broke the near-deadlock. Union St. Gilloise (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.10 scoring average — below par going forward. Club Brugge KV (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.97 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.