Union St. Gilloise 5-1 Anderlecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Union St. Gilloise (60%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Union St. Gilloise face Anderlecht.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Jupiler Pro League clash, Championship Group - 40 as Union St. Gilloise welcome Anderlecht to Stade Joseph Marien. Kick-off is set for Sunday 24 May 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Union St. Gilloise have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W L W L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Union St. Gilloise's home record at Stade Joseph Marien: 9W 1D 0L from 10 Jupiler Pro League appearances (2.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Joseph Marien. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Union St. Gilloise are significantly better at Stade Joseph Marien than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Anderlecht stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L D D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Anderlecht's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Union St. Gilloise carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
Union St. Gilloise hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 5 wins from 8 previous encounters compared to 1 for Anderlecht, with 2 draws in between.
The last 8 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 26 Apr 2026, ended 3–1 with Union St. Gilloise winning.
The historical record gives Union St. Gilloise a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 8 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Union St. Gilloise in-play and half-time data (79 games, 39 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
Anderlecht in-play and half-time data (79 games, 39 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union St. Gilloise 44% versus Anderlecht 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union St. Gilloise 46% | Anderlecht 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union St. Gilloise 1.85 xG and Anderlecht 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.165 / defence 0.689 | Anderlecht attack 0.975 / defence 1.193. League average goals — home 1.332 / away 1.321. Union St. Gilloise's defence rating of 0.689 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 60 Union St. Gilloise games / 60 Anderlecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 60% | Draw 22% | Anderlecht 18%. Fair-value odds: Union St. Gilloise 1.67 | Draw 4.55 | Anderlecht 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Union St. Gilloise (60%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Union St. Gilloise at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.74 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates are neutral: Union St. Gilloise 40% | Anderlecht 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union St. Gilloise vs Anderlecht | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Championship Group - 40 | Venue: Stade Joseph Marien • Kick-off: Sunday 24 May 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 60% | Draw 22% | Anderlecht 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 50% | xG Union St. Gilloise 1.85 / Anderlecht 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.165 / def 0.689 | Anderlecht attack 0.975 / def 1.193 | league avg home 1.332 / away 1.321 • Poisson stance: Union St. Gilloise (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
Union St. Gilloise xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Anderlecht xG
50%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union St. Gilloise vs Anderlecht kick off?
Union St. Gilloise vs Anderlecht kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 24 May 2026 at Stade Joseph Marien.
What was the final score in Union St. Gilloise vs Anderlecht?
Union St. Gilloise 5 - 1 Anderlecht.
Where is Union St. Gilloise vs Anderlecht being played?
The match is being played at Stade Joseph Marien.
What competition is Union St. Gilloise vs Anderlecht part of?
Union St. Gilloise vs Anderlecht is a Championship Group - 40 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Union St. Gilloise vs Anderlecht?
Our statistical model gives Union St. Gilloise a 60% chance of winning, Anderlecht a 18% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Union St. Gilloise the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union St. Gilloise vs Anderlecht?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Union St. Gilloise and Anderlecht will score (BTTS).
Will Union St. Gilloise vs Anderlecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and Anderlecht?
Record (8 meetings): Union St. Gilloise 5W | Draws 2 | Anderlecht 1W.
What form are Union St. Gilloise and Anderlecht in?
Union St. Gilloise (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-L-D. Anderlecht (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Union St. Gilloise's attacking strength (1.17x league average) is weighed against Anderlecht's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.85. The same calculation in reverse, Anderlecht's attack versus Union St. Gilloise's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.1%), 1-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union St. Gilloise Win
60%
1.66
22%
4.48
18%
5.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
Union St. Gilloise xG
Total xG
2.74
0.89
Anderlecht xG
1.66
60%
Home win
4.48
22%
Draw
5.69
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
16%
6.37
Win to Nil
25%
4.04
3%
36.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.0 | 10.6 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.8 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union St. Gilloise vs Anderlecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Union St. Gilloise and Anderlecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Union St. Gilloise and 0.89 for Anderlecht, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Union St. Gilloise vs Anderlecht?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 79 outings, Union St. Gilloise have picked up 2.10 PPG on a 48W 22D 9L record — W-L-W-L-D across the most recent five.
Anderlecht's form line: 33W 17D 29L from 79 games, 1.47 PPG, last five L-L-D-D-W.
Put side by side, Union St. Gilloise are the form team by 0.63 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Anderlecht.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Union St. Gilloise have posted 2.54 PPG from 39 outings (31W 6D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 2.10 PPG overall — Union St. Gilloise are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Anderlecht have gone 14W 8D 17L from 39 away games — 1.28 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union St. Gilloise come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Union St. Gilloise are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 0.68 conceded per game recently; Anderlecht are on 1.52 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Defensively: Union St. Gilloise have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 79 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union St. Gilloise
Current Season
Anderlecht
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union St. Gilloise and Anderlecht in coming into this match?
Union St. Gilloise have gone 48W 22D 9L in their last 79 games (2.10 PPG), while Anderlecht have gone 33W 17D 29L in their last 79 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union St. Gilloise at home or Anderlecht away?
Union St. Gilloise's home record (2.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union St. Gilloise at home: 2.54 PPG; Anderlecht away: 1.28 PPG.
Have Union St. Gilloise or Anderlecht been keeping clean sheets recently?
Union St. Gilloise have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their recent games, Anderlecht in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Union St. Gilloise and Anderlecht runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 30 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Union St. Gilloise have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 May 2026, when Union St. Gilloise won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Union St. Gilloise's record when hosting Anderlecht specifically: 4W 2D 0L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Union St. Gilloise
2
Draws
1
Anderlecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and Anderlecht?
From 10 meetings on record, Union St. Gilloise have won 7, Anderlecht have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Union St. Gilloise and Anderlecht last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2026, when Union St. Gilloise 3-0 Anderlecht.
Who has won more matches between Union St. Gilloise and Anderlecht?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Anderlecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union St. Gilloise 38%, Anderlecht 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 51% (Union St. Gilloise) and 38% (Anderlecht).
On the defensive side: Union St. Gilloise keep a clean sheet in 59% of their matches; Anderlecht in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union St. Gilloise home games / Anderlecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union St. Gilloise play Anderlecht?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Union St. Gilloise's recent matches and 41% of Anderlecht's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Union St. Gilloise vs Anderlecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 51% of Union St. Gilloise's recent games and 38% of Anderlecht's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Union St. Gilloise and Anderlecht tend to score early?
Union St. Gilloise have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Anderlecht in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Union St. Gilloise run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Anderlecht.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union St. Gilloise beat Anderlecht 5-1 at Stade Joseph Marien, Championship Group - 40, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union St. Gilloise 1.85 xG and Anderlecht 0.89 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Union St. Gilloise beat their projection by 3.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union St. Gilloise attack 1.17 / defence 0.69 against Anderlecht attack 0.97 / defence 1.19, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union St. Gilloise 60% | Draw 22% | Anderlecht 18%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 60%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union St. Gilloise 46%, Anderlecht 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (79 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and conceded here.
Anderlecht's trading profile (79 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Union St. Gilloise arrived the stronger side — 2.10 PPG against 1.47. Form held, and they took the win. Union St. Gilloise (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm. Anderlecht (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.