Standard Liege 5-0 Anderlecht – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Standard Liege at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Standard Liege vs Anderlecht encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Anderlecht travel to Stade Maurice Dufrasne to take on Standard Liege. The game is scheduled for Sunday 23 October 2022, 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Standard Liege — All Games: 6W 0D 4L from 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Standard Liege, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Standard Liege at Stade Maurice Dufrasne this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Maurice Dufrasne. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Anderlecht have recorded 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Anderlecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Anderlecht have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Standard Liege have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Standard Liege, 1 for Anderlecht and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 16 Jan 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Standard Liege in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Anderlecht in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Standard Liege 47% versus Anderlecht 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Standard Liege 47% | Anderlecht 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Standard Liege 1.64 xG and Anderlecht 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Standard Liege attack 1.045 / defence 0.799 | Anderlecht attack 1.107 / defence 0.992. League average goals — home 1.580 / away 1.438. Standard Liege's defence rating of 0.799 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 47 Standard Liege games / 47 Anderlecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Standard Liege 46% | Draw 24% | Anderlecht 30%. Fair-value odds: Standard Liege 2.17 | Draw 4.17 | Anderlecht 3.33. Standard Liege hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Standard Liege as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Standard Liege offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.91 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Standard Liege 30% | Anderlecht 70%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Standard Liege vs Anderlecht | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stade Maurice Dufrasne • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Oct 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Standard Liege 46% | Draw 24% | Anderlecht 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 58% | xG Standard Liege 1.64 / Anderlecht 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Standard Liege attack 1.045 / def 0.799 | Anderlecht attack 1.107 / def 0.992 | league avg home 1.580 / away 1.438 • Poisson stance: Standard Liege (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Standard Liege xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Anderlecht xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Standard Liege vs Anderlecht kick off?
Standard Liege vs Anderlecht kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 23 October 2022 at Stade Maurice Dufrasne.
What was the final score in Standard Liege vs Anderlecht?
Standard Liege 5 - 0 Anderlecht.
Where is Standard Liege vs Anderlecht being played?
The match is being played at Stade Maurice Dufrasne.
What competition is Standard Liege vs Anderlecht part of?
Standard Liege vs Anderlecht is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Standard Liege vs Anderlecht?
Our statistical model gives Standard Liege a 46% chance of winning, Anderlecht a 30% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Standard Liege the favourite.
Will both teams score in Standard Liege vs Anderlecht?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Standard Liege and Anderlecht will score (BTTS).
Will Standard Liege vs Anderlecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Standard Liege and Anderlecht?
Record (2 meetings): Standard Liege 0W | Draws 1 | Anderlecht 1W.
What form are Standard Liege and Anderlecht in?
Standard Liege (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Anderlecht (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Standard Liege's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Anderlecht's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.64. The same calculation in reverse, Anderlecht's attack versus Standard Liege's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Standard Liege Win
46%
2.17
24%
4.12
30%
3.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Standard Liege xG
Total xG
2.91
1.27
Anderlecht xG
2.17
46%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
3.36
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
28%
3.56
19%
5.14
Win to Nil
13%
7.75
6%
17.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 6.9 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 11.4 | 7.2 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.3 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.1 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Standard Liege vs Anderlecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Standard Liege and Anderlecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Standard Liege and 1.27 for Anderlecht, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Standard Liege vs Anderlecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 47 outings, Standard Liege have picked up 1.23 PPG on a 16W 10D 21L record — W-L-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Standard Liege is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Anderlecht's form line: 22W 12D 13L from 47 games, 1.66 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-L. The sample for Anderlecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Anderlecht are the form team by 0.43 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Standard Liege.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Standard Liege have posted 1.13 PPG from 23 outings (7W 5D 11L).
On the road, Anderlecht have gone 10W 5D 8L from 23 away games — 1.52 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Standard Liege are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Anderlecht are on 1.85 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Standard Liege
Blended
Anderlecht
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Standard Liege and Anderlecht in coming into this match?
Standard Liege have gone 16W 10D 21L in their last 47 games (1.23 PPG), while Anderlecht have gone 22W 12D 13L in their last 47 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Standard Liege at home or Anderlecht away?
Anderlecht's away record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Standard Liege at home: 1.13 PPG; Anderlecht away: 1.52 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Standard Liege and Anderlecht runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Oct 2024, when Anderlecht won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Standard Liege's record when hosting Anderlecht specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Standard Liege
3
Draws
4
Anderlecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Standard Liege and Anderlecht?
From 9 meetings on record, Standard Liege have won 2, Anderlecht have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Standard Liege and Anderlecht last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when Standard Liege 2-0 Anderlecht.
Who has won more matches between Standard Liege and Anderlecht?
Anderlecht have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Standard Liege are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Anderlecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Standard Liege 44%, Anderlecht 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Standard Liege) and 65% (Anderlecht). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Standard Liege keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Anderlecht in 30%; Standard Liege have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Standard Liege home games / Anderlecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Standard Liege play Anderlecht?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Standard Liege's recent matches and 52% of Anderlecht's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Standard Liege vs Anderlecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of Standard Liege's matches and 65% of Anderlecht's.
Do Standard Liege and Anderlecht tend to score early?
Standard Liege have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Anderlecht in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Standard Liege run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Anderlecht.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Standard Liege beat Anderlecht 5-0 at Stade Maurice Dufrasne, Regular Season - 14, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Standard Liege 1.64 xG and Anderlecht 1.27 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Standard Liege beat their projection by 3.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Anderlecht landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Standard Liege attack 1.04 / defence 0.80 against Anderlecht attack 1.11 / defence 0.99, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Standard Liege 46% | Draw 24% | Anderlecht 30%, with Standard Liege to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Standard Liege 47%, Anderlecht 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Standard Liege's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.
Anderlecht's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Anderlecht arrived the stronger side — 1.66 PPG against 1.23. Form was overturned, with Standard Liege winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Standard Liege (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line. Anderlecht (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.91 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.