St. Truiden 1-1 Union St. Gilloise – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Union St. Gilloise at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this St. Truiden vs Union St. Gilloise fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Union St. Gilloise make the trip to Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium to face St. Truiden in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 1. The match kicks off on Saturday 23 July 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
St. Truiden (all games): 7W 2D 1L across 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this term — 2.30 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. St. Truiden haven't played a Jupiler Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
St. Truiden's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Union St. Gilloise's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: D L L W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Union St. Gilloise haven't played a Jupiler Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
On the road, Union St. Gilloise have gone 7W 2D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 2.30 exceeds their overall 1.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in St. Truiden's favour (2.30 vs 1.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading & In-Play
St. Truiden — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).
Union St. Gilloise — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St. Truiden 53% versus Union St. Gilloise 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St. Truiden 47% | Union St. Gilloise 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St. Truiden 1.43 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St. Truiden attack 1.035 / defence 0.960 | Union St. Gilloise attack 1.283 / defence 0.849. League average goals — home 1.625 / away 1.281. Union St. Gilloise have an above-average attack strength of 1.283 — the away xG of 1.58 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 34 St. Truiden games / 34 Union St. Gilloise games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: St. Truiden 35% | Draw 24% | Union St. Gilloise 41%. Fair-value odds: St. Truiden 2.86 | Draw 4.17 | Union St. Gilloise 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.43 / 1.58) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Union St. Gilloise as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form St. Truiden (2.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Union St. Gilloise if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.00 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: St. Truiden 60% | Union St. Gilloise 30%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St. Truiden vs Union St. Gilloise | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Jul 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St. Truiden 35% | Draw 24% | Union St. Gilloise 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 60% | xG St. Truiden 1.43 / Union St. Gilloise 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: St. Truiden attack 1.035 / def 0.960 | Union St. Gilloise attack 1.283 / def 0.849 | league avg home 1.625 / away 1.281 • Poisson stance: Union St. Gilloise (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
St. Truiden xG
Expected Goals
1.58
Union St. Gilloise xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St. Truiden vs Union St. Gilloise kick off?
St. Truiden vs Union St. Gilloise kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 23 July 2022 at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium.
What was the final score in St. Truiden vs Union St. Gilloise?
St. Truiden 1 - 1 Union St. Gilloise.
Where is St. Truiden vs Union St. Gilloise being played?
The match is being played at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium.
What competition is St. Truiden vs Union St. Gilloise part of?
St. Truiden vs Union St. Gilloise is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win St. Truiden vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our statistical model gives St. Truiden a 35% chance of winning, Union St. Gilloise a 41% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Union St. Gilloise the favourite.
Will both teams score in St. Truiden vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both St. Truiden and Union St. Gilloise will score (BTTS).
Will St. Truiden vs Union St. Gilloise have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and Union St. Gilloise?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are St. Truiden and Union St. Gilloise in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. St. Truiden (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
St. Truiden's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Union St. Gilloise's defensive record (0.85x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.43. Flip it around — Union St. Gilloise's attack (1.28x) against St. Truiden's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.58.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Union St. Gilloise Win
35%
2.89
24%
4.13
41%
2.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
St. Truiden xG
Total xG
3.00
1.58
Union St. Gilloise xG
2.89
35%
Home win
4.13
24%
Draw
2.43
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
21%
4.85
24%
4.17
Win to Nil
7%
14.01
10%
10.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 7.8 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.2 | 8.8 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 8.0 | 6.3 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for St. Truiden vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are St. Truiden and Union St. Gilloise expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for St. Truiden and 1.58 for Union St. Gilloise, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for St. Truiden vs Union St. Gilloise?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
St. Truiden's recent record stands at 15W 6D 13L from 34 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-W in the last five. St. Truiden haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Union St. Gilloise, meanwhile, have gone 22W 6D 6L across 34 games — 2.12 PPG, with D-L-L-W-L in their last five. Union St. Gilloise haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
The points-per-game comparison favours Union St. Gilloise by 0.62 — a real, if not enormous, edge over St. Truiden heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, St. Truiden have managed 7W 3D 7L from 17 games — 1.41 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Union St. Gilloise's away record stands at 13W 3D 1L across 17 trips, a 2.47 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union St. Gilloise come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
St. Truiden are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Union St. Gilloise are on 2.06 scored and 0.79 conceded.
Defensively: Union St. Gilloise in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St. Truiden
Pre-Season
Union St. Gilloise
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are St. Truiden and Union St. Gilloise in coming into this match?
St. Truiden have gone 15W 6D 13L in their last 34 games (1.50 PPG), while Union St. Gilloise have gone 22W 6D 6L in their last 34 (2.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St. Truiden at home or Union St. Gilloise away?
Union St. Gilloise's away record (2.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St. Truiden at home: 1.41 PPG; Union St. Gilloise away: 2.47 PPG.
Have St. Truiden or Union St. Gilloise been keeping clean sheets recently?
St. Truiden have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Union St. Gilloise in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Union St. Gilloise won 0-4 on 8 Oct 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, St. Truiden have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Union St. Gilloise — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
St. Truiden
2
Draws
7
Union St. Gilloise
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and Union St. Gilloise?
From 10 meetings on record, St. Truiden have won 1, Union St. Gilloise have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did St. Truiden and Union St. Gilloise last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when St. Truiden 2-1 Union St. Gilloise.
Who has won more matches between St. Truiden and Union St. Gilloise?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — St. Truiden 71%, Union St. Gilloise 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (St. Truiden) and 53% (Union St. Gilloise). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Union St. Gilloise in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St. Truiden home games / Union St. Gilloise away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when St. Truiden play Union St. Gilloise?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of St. Truiden's games and 41% of Union St. Gilloise's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is St. Truiden vs Union St. Gilloise usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of St. Truiden's matches and 53% of Union St. Gilloise's.
Do St. Truiden and Union St. Gilloise tend to score early?
St. Truiden have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Union St. Gilloise in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
St. Truiden and Union St. Gilloise share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium, Regular Season - 1, as St. Truiden and Union St. Gilloise drew 1-1 in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St. Truiden 1.43 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.58 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St. Truiden attack 1.03 / defence 0.96 against Union St. Gilloise attack 1.28 / defence 0.85, drawn from 34/34 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it St. Truiden 35% | Draw 24% | Union St. Gilloise 41%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St. Truiden 47%, Union St. Gilloise 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
St. Truiden's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Union St. Gilloise arrived the stronger side — 2.12 PPG against 1.50. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Union St. Gilloise (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.41 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.