St. Truiden 1-2 Union St. Gilloise – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Union St. Gilloise at 71% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this St. Truiden vs Union St. Gilloise encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Union St. Gilloise make the trip to Stadion Stayen to face St. Truiden in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 17. The match kicks off on Friday 3 December 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
St. Truiden (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for St. Truiden, so this record blends games from this season and last.
St. Truiden's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 4L across 8 games at Stadion Stayen this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 88% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Union St. Gilloise's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: W W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.80 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Union St. Gilloise, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Union St. Gilloise have gone 6W 1D 1L from 8 away fixtures this term (2.38 PPG). They are averaging 2.88 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 3 clean sheets from 8 away games (38%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Union St. Gilloise are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (2.20 vs 1.40). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — St. Truiden have seen both teams score in 88% of their games, Union St. Gilloise in 62%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
St. Truiden — key trading statistics (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 88% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games).
Union St. Gilloise — key trading statistics (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St. Truiden 62% versus Union St. Gilloise 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (St. Truiden 56% | Union St. Gilloise 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St. Truiden 1.07 xG and Union St. Gilloise 2.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St. Truiden attack 0.906 / defence 1.255 | Union St. Gilloise attack 1.424 / defence 0.947. League average goals — home 1.251 / away 1.485. Union St. Gilloise have an above-average attack strength of 1.424 — the away xG of 2.65 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 16 St. Truiden games / 16 Union St. Gilloise games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: St. Truiden 13% | Draw 16% | Union St. Gilloise 71%. Fair-value odds: St. Truiden 7.69 | Draw 6.25 | Union St. Gilloise 1.41. The model has a clear lean to Union St. Gilloise (71%) — a 58pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.73. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.73 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.07 / 2.65) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Union St. Gilloise as the most likely outcome at 71% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.73 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 72% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: St. Truiden 88% | Union St. Gilloise 62% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St. Truiden vs Union St. Gilloise | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stadion Stayen • Kick-off: Friday 3 Dec 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St. Truiden 13% | Draw 16% | Union St. Gilloise 71% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 61% | xG St. Truiden 1.07 / Union St. Gilloise 2.65 • Poisson strength factors: St. Truiden attack 0.906 / def 1.255 | Union St. Gilloise attack 1.424 / def 0.947 | league avg home 1.251 / away 1.485 • Poisson stance: Union St. Gilloise (71%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
St. Truiden xG
Expected Goals
2.65
Union St. Gilloise xG
61%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St. Truiden vs Union St. Gilloise kick off?
St. Truiden vs Union St. Gilloise kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 3 December 2021 at Stadion Stayen.
What was the final score in St. Truiden vs Union St. Gilloise?
St. Truiden 1 - 2 Union St. Gilloise.
Where is St. Truiden vs Union St. Gilloise being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Stayen.
What competition is St. Truiden vs Union St. Gilloise part of?
St. Truiden vs Union St. Gilloise is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win St. Truiden vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our statistical model gives St. Truiden a 13% chance of winning, Union St. Gilloise a 71% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Union St. Gilloise the favourite.
Will both teams score in St. Truiden vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both St. Truiden and Union St. Gilloise will score (BTTS).
Will St. Truiden vs Union St. Gilloise have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and Union St. Gilloise?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are St. Truiden and Union St. Gilloise in?
St. Truiden (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Union St. Gilloise (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
St. Truiden's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Union St. Gilloise's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.07. Flip it around — Union St. Gilloise's attack (1.42x) against St. Truiden's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 2.65.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-2, at 9.1%. Close behind: 0-2 (8.5%), 1-3 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Union St. Gilloise Win
13%
7.69
16%
6.25
71%
1.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
8.5%
Away win
1 – 3
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
St. Truiden xG
Total xG
3.73
2.65
Union St. Gilloise xG
7.69
13%
Home win
6.25
16%
Draw
1.41
71%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
51%
Over 3.5
1.96
49%
Under 3.5
2.04
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.58
Clean Sheet
7%
14.21
34%
2.92
Win to Nil
1%
109.31
24%
4.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4 | 6.4 | 8.5 | 7.5 | 5.0 | 2.6 |
| 1 | 2.6 | 6.9 | 9.1 | 8.0 | 5.3 | 2.8 |
| 2 | 1.4 | 3.7 | 4.9 | 4.3 | 2.9 | 1.5 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for St. Truiden vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.1%.
How many goals are St. Truiden and Union St. Gilloise expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for St. Truiden and 2.65 for Union St. Gilloise, a combined total of 3.73.
How confident is the prediction model for St. Truiden vs Union St. Gilloise?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 71%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
St. Truiden's recent record stands at 6W 3D 7L from 16 games, a 1.31 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for St. Truiden is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Union St. Gilloise, meanwhile, have gone 11W 1D 4L across 16 games — 2.12 PPG, with W-W-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Union St. Gilloise is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Union St. Gilloise by 0.81 — a real, if not enormous, edge over St. Truiden heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, St. Truiden have managed 2W 2D 4L from 8 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Union St. Gilloise's away record stands at 6W 1D 1L across 8 trips, a 2.38 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union St. Gilloise come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
St. Truiden are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Union St. Gilloise are on 2.56 scored and 1.06 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: St. Truiden have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: Union St. Gilloise in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St. Truiden
Blended
Union St. Gilloise
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are St. Truiden and Union St. Gilloise in coming into this match?
St. Truiden have gone 6W 3D 7L in their last 16 games (1.31 PPG), while Union St. Gilloise have gone 11W 1D 4L in their last 16 (2.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St. Truiden at home or Union St. Gilloise away?
Union St. Gilloise's away record (2.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St. Truiden at home: 1.00 PPG; Union St. Gilloise away: 2.38 PPG.
Have St. Truiden or Union St. Gilloise been keeping clean sheets recently?
St. Truiden have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Union St. Gilloise in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Union St. Gilloise won 0-4 on 8 Oct 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, St. Truiden have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Union St. Gilloise — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
St. Truiden
2
Draws
7
Union St. Gilloise
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and Union St. Gilloise?
From 10 meetings on record, St. Truiden have won 1, Union St. Gilloise have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did St. Truiden and Union St. Gilloise last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when St. Truiden 2-1 Union St. Gilloise.
Who has won more matches between St. Truiden and Union St. Gilloise?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 88% for St. Truiden, 62% for Union St. Gilloise — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for St. Truiden and 75% for Union St. Gilloise. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Union St. Gilloise in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St. Truiden home games / Union St. Gilloise away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when St. Truiden play Union St. Gilloise?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 88% of St. Truiden's games and 62% of Union St. Gilloise's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is St. Truiden vs Union St. Gilloise usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of St. Truiden's matches and 75% of Union St. Gilloise's.
Do St. Truiden and Union St. Gilloise tend to score early?
St. Truiden have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Union St. Gilloise in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Union St. Gilloise edge out St. Truiden 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union St. Gilloise beat St. Truiden 1-2 at Stadion Stayen, Regular Season - 17, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St. Truiden 1.07 xG and Union St. Gilloise 2.65 xG, a combined 3.73. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St. Truiden attack 0.91 / defence 1.25 against Union St. Gilloise attack 1.42 / defence 0.95, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it St. Truiden 13% | Draw 16% | Union St. Gilloise 71%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 71%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St. Truiden 56%, Union St. Gilloise 75%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
St. Truiden's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Union St. Gilloise arrived the stronger side — 2.12 PPG against 1.31. Form held, and they took the win. Union St. Gilloise (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 2.88 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.