St. Truiden 0-1 KVC Westerlo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates St. Truiden at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this St. Truiden vs KVC Westerlo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
St. Truiden and KVC Westerlo meet at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 26. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 19 February 2023 at 18:15 UTC.
Current Form
St. Truiden's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D L D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for St. Truiden, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium, St. Truiden have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
KVC Westerlo have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: L D W D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for KVC Westerlo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, KVC Westerlo have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — St. Truiden lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 5.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 29 Oct 2022, ended 3–2 with St. Truiden winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
St. Truiden — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
KVC Westerlo — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St. Truiden 49% versus KVC Westerlo 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St. Truiden 43% | KVC Westerlo 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St. Truiden 1.15 xG and KVC Westerlo 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St. Truiden attack 0.742 / defence 0.881 | KVC Westerlo attack 0.900 / defence 0.999. League average goals — home 1.549 / away 1.299. St. Truiden's attack strength of 0.742 is below the league average — the 1.15 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 59 St. Truiden games / 25 KVC Westerlo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: St. Truiden 36% | Draw 34% | KVC Westerlo 30%. Fair-value odds: St. Truiden 2.78 | Draw 2.94 | KVC Westerlo 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, St. Truiden are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on St. Truiden if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.18 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates are neutral: St. Truiden 40% | KVC Westerlo 60%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St. Truiden vs KVC Westerlo | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Feb 2023, 18:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St. Truiden 36% | Draw 34% | KVC Westerlo 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 46% | xG St. Truiden 1.15 / KVC Westerlo 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: St. Truiden attack 0.742 / def 0.881 | KVC Westerlo attack 0.900 / def 0.999 | league avg home 1.549 / away 1.299 • Poisson stance: St. Truiden (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
St. Truiden xG
Expected Goals
1.03
KVC Westerlo xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St. Truiden vs KVC Westerlo kick off?
St. Truiden vs KVC Westerlo kicked off at 18:15 on Sunday 19 February 2023 at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium.
What was the final score in St. Truiden vs KVC Westerlo?
St. Truiden 0 - 1 KVC Westerlo.
Where is St. Truiden vs KVC Westerlo being played?
The match is being played at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium.
What competition is St. Truiden vs KVC Westerlo part of?
St. Truiden vs KVC Westerlo is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win St. Truiden vs KVC Westerlo?
Our statistical model gives St. Truiden a 36% chance of winning, KVC Westerlo a 30% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making St. Truiden the favourite.
Will both teams score in St. Truiden vs KVC Westerlo?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both St. Truiden and KVC Westerlo will score (BTTS).
Will St. Truiden vs KVC Westerlo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and KVC Westerlo?
Record (1 meetings): St. Truiden 1W | Draws 0 | KVC Westerlo 0W.
What form are St. Truiden and KVC Westerlo in?
St. Truiden (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-D-W-L. KVC Westerlo (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
St. Truiden's attacking strength (0.74x league average) is weighed against KVC Westerlo's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.15. Flip it around — KVC Westerlo's attack (0.90x) against St. Truiden's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 59/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.1%), 1-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St. Truiden Win
36%
2.76
34%
2.98
30%
3.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
St. Truiden xG
Total xG
2.18
1.03
KVC Westerlo xG
2.76
36%
Home win
2.98
34%
Draw
3.31
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
32%
3.15
Win to Nil
13%
7.73
10%
10.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 11.7 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 13.4 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 7.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for St. Truiden vs KVC Westerlo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are St. Truiden and KVC Westerlo expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for St. Truiden and 1.03 for KVC Westerlo, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for St. Truiden vs KVC Westerlo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
St. Truiden come into this having played 53 games, going 22W 13D 18L for 1.49 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-W-L. The sample for St. Truiden is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, KVC Westerlo sit at 1.74 PPG from 53 outings (27W 11D 15L), a run that reads L-D-W-D-D across their last five. The sample for KVC Westerlo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.49 PPG for St. Truiden against 1.74 for KVC Westerlo. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
St. Truiden's home form reads 10W 6D 10L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.38 PPG return.
Away from home, KVC Westerlo have taken 1.62 points per game from 26 outings (13W 3D 10L).
Attack vs Defence
St. Truiden are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; KVC Westerlo are on 1.89 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 53 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St. Truiden
Blended
KVC Westerlo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are St. Truiden and KVC Westerlo in coming into this match?
St. Truiden have gone 22W 13D 18L in their last 53 games (1.49 PPG), while KVC Westerlo have gone 27W 11D 15L in their last 53 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St. Truiden at home or KVC Westerlo away?
KVC Westerlo's away record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St. Truiden at home: 1.38 PPG; KVC Westerlo away: 1.62 PPG.
Have St. Truiden or KVC Westerlo been keeping clean sheets recently?
St. Truiden have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, KVC Westerlo in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 6 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: St. Truiden won 0-4 on 6 Feb 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, St. Truiden have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against KVC Westerlo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
St. Truiden
2
Draws
2
KVC Westerlo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and KVC Westerlo?
From 10 meetings on record, St. Truiden have won 6, KVC Westerlo have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did St. Truiden and KVC Westerlo last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2026, when KVC Westerlo 0-4 St. Truiden.
Who has won more matches between St. Truiden and KVC Westerlo?
St. Truiden have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
KVC Westerlo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — St. Truiden 58%, KVC Westerlo 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (St. Truiden) and 50% (KVC Westerlo).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St. Truiden home games / KVC Westerlo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when St. Truiden play KVC Westerlo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of St. Truiden's games and 58% of KVC Westerlo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is St. Truiden vs KVC Westerlo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of St. Truiden's recent games and 50% of KVC Westerlo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do St. Truiden and KVC Westerlo tend to score early?
St. Truiden have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, KVC Westerlo in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as KVC Westerlo defy the odds to beat St. Truiden 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
KVC Westerlo beat St. Truiden 0-1 at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St. Truiden 1.15 xG and KVC Westerlo 1.03 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. St. Truiden fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St. Truiden attack 0.74 / defence 0.88 against KVC Westerlo attack 0.90 / defence 1.00, drawn from 59/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it St. Truiden 36% | Draw 34% | KVC Westerlo 30%, with St. Truiden to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual KVC Westerlo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St. Truiden 43%, KVC Westerlo 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
St. Truiden's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
KVC Westerlo's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — St. Truiden 1.49 PPG, KVC Westerlo 1.74 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the KVC Westerlo win broke the near-deadlock. St. Truiden (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward. KVC Westerlo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.