St. Truiden 0-1 Charleroi – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates St. Truiden at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this St. Truiden vs Charleroi fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
St. Truiden host Charleroi at Stadion Stayen in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 28 January 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, St. Truiden have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L W L W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for St. Truiden, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, St. Truiden have posted 3W 2D 5L at Stadion Stayen — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Charleroi stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Charleroi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Charleroi away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — St. Truiden at 1.00 PPG versus Charleroi's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. St. Truiden register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Charleroi in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for St. Truiden, 0 for Charleroi and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 31 Jul 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
St. Truiden in-play and half-time data (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 86% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games).
Charleroi in-play and half-time data (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 92% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St. Truiden 62% versus Charleroi 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St. Truiden 54% | Charleroi 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St. Truiden 1.72 xG and Charleroi 1.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St. Truiden attack 1.079 / defence 1.099 | Charleroi attack 1.053 / defence 1.369. League average goals — home 1.163 / away 1.484. Charleroi bring a strong defensive rating of 1.369 — this is suppressing St. Truiden's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 24 St. Truiden games / 24 Charleroi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: St. Truiden 38% | Draw 25% | Charleroi 38%. Fair-value odds: St. Truiden 2.63 | Draw 4.00 | Charleroi 2.63. The draw (25%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.44. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.44 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.72 / 1.72) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 25% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 38% and away win at 38% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.44 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 68% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: St. Truiden 80% | Charleroi 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St. Truiden vs Charleroi | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stadion Stayen • Kick-off: Friday 28 Jan 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St. Truiden 38% | Draw 25% | Charleroi 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 68% | xG St. Truiden 1.72 / Charleroi 1.72 • Poisson strength factors: St. Truiden attack 1.079 / def 1.099 | Charleroi attack 1.053 / def 1.369 | league avg home 1.163 / away 1.484 • Poisson stance: Draw (25%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
St. Truiden xG
Expected Goals
1.72
Charleroi xG
68%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St. Truiden vs Charleroi kick off?
St. Truiden vs Charleroi kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 28 January 2022 at Stadion Stayen.
What was the final score in St. Truiden vs Charleroi?
St. Truiden 0 - 1 Charleroi.
Where is St. Truiden vs Charleroi being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Stayen.
What competition is St. Truiden vs Charleroi part of?
St. Truiden vs Charleroi is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win St. Truiden vs Charleroi?
Our statistical model gives St. Truiden a 38% chance of winning, Charleroi a 38% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in St. Truiden vs Charleroi?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both St. Truiden and Charleroi will score (BTTS).
Will St. Truiden vs Charleroi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and Charleroi?
Record (1 meetings): St. Truiden 0W | Draws 1 | Charleroi 0W.
What form are St. Truiden and Charleroi in?
St. Truiden (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. Charleroi (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates St. Truiden's attack at 1.08x the league average against Charleroi's defence at 1.37x — combine the two and it projects 1.72 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Charleroi's attack versus St. Truiden's defence, projects 1.72 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.2%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
St. Truiden Win
38%
2.65
25%
4.06
38%
2.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
St. Truiden xG
Total xG
3.44
1.72
Charleroi xG
2.65
38%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
2.65
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.46
32%
BTTS No
3.16
Clean Sheet
18%
5.57
18%
5.57
Win to Nil
7%
14.76
7%
14.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 5.5 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 9.5 | 8.2 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 8.2 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.7 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for St. Truiden vs Charleroi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are St. Truiden and Charleroi expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for St. Truiden and 1.72 for Charleroi, a combined total of 3.44.
How confident is the prediction model for St. Truiden vs Charleroi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 24 outings, St. Truiden have picked up 1.17 PPG on a 8W 4D 12L record — L-W-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for St. Truiden is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Charleroi's form line: 10W 7D 7L from 24 games, 1.54 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-D. The sample for Charleroi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: St. Truiden on 1.17 PPG, Charleroi on 1.54. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, St. Truiden have posted 1.17 PPG from 12 outings (4W 2D 6L).
On the road, Charleroi have gone 6W 3D 3L from 12 away games — 1.75 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Charleroi come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
St. Truiden are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Charleroi are on 1.62 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: St. Truiden have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 24 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St. Truiden
Blended
Charleroi
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are St. Truiden and Charleroi in coming into this match?
St. Truiden have gone 8W 4D 12L in their last 24 games (1.17 PPG), while Charleroi have gone 10W 7D 7L in their last 24 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St. Truiden at home or Charleroi away?
Charleroi's away record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St. Truiden at home: 1.17 PPG; Charleroi away: 1.75 PPG.
Have St. Truiden or Charleroi been keeping clean sheets recently?
St. Truiden have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Charleroi in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between St. Truiden and Charleroi runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Aug 2024, when Charleroi won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
St. Truiden's record when hosting Charleroi specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
St. Truiden
3
Draws
5
Charleroi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and Charleroi?
From 10 meetings on record, St. Truiden have won 2, Charleroi have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did St. Truiden and Charleroi last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when St. Truiden 0-2 Charleroi.
Who has won more matches between St. Truiden and Charleroi?
Charleroi have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — St. Truiden at 83%, Charleroi at 58%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for St. Truiden and 92% for Charleroi. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 58% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St. Truiden home games / Charleroi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when St. Truiden play Charleroi?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of St. Truiden's games and 58% of Charleroi's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is St. Truiden vs Charleroi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of St. Truiden's matches and 92% of Charleroi's.
Do St. Truiden and Charleroi tend to score early?
St. Truiden have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Charleroi in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Charleroi defy the odds to beat St. Truiden 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charleroi beat St. Truiden 0-1 at Stadion Stayen, Regular Season - 25, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St. Truiden 1.72 xG and Charleroi 1.72 xG, a combined 3.44. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. St. Truiden fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St. Truiden attack 1.08 / defence 1.10 against Charleroi attack 1.05 / defence 1.37, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it St. Truiden 38% | Draw 25% | Charleroi 38%, with St. Truiden to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Charleroi win had been the model's second-ranked read at 38%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St. Truiden 54%, Charleroi 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
St. Truiden's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Charleroi's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — St. Truiden 1.17 PPG, Charleroi 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Charleroi win broke the near-deadlock. St. Truiden (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward. Charleroi (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.08 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.