St. Truiden 1-4 Charleroi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates St. Truiden at 51%, yet in-form Charleroi provide a compelling counter-argument — this St. Truiden vs Charleroi fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
St. Truiden host Charleroi at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 3 August 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, St. Truiden have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D W D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. St. Truiden have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, St. Truiden have posted 6W 3D 1L at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — St. Truiden are significantly better at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Charleroi stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Charleroi have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Charleroi away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Charleroi — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for St. Truiden, 2 for Charleroi and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 6 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.3 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 23 Dec 2023, ended 1–0 with St. Truiden winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
St. Truiden in-play and half-time data (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Charleroi in-play and half-time data (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St. Truiden 57% versus Charleroi 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St. Truiden 43% | Charleroi 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St. Truiden 1.47 xG and Charleroi 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St. Truiden attack 1.020 / defence 0.957 | Charleroi attack 0.898 / defence 1.034. League average goals — home 1.390 / away 1.006. Data: 31 St. Truiden games / 31 Charleroi games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: St. Truiden 51% | Draw 27% | Charleroi 22%. Fair-value odds: St. Truiden 1.96 | Draw 3.70 | Charleroi 4.55. St. Truiden hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, St. Truiden are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Charleroi (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on St. Truiden offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.33 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: St. Truiden 60% | Charleroi 40%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St. Truiden vs Charleroi | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Aug 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St. Truiden 51% | Draw 27% | Charleroi 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 45% | xG St. Truiden 1.47 / Charleroi 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: St. Truiden attack 1.020 / def 0.957 | Charleroi attack 0.898 / def 1.034 | league avg home 1.390 / away 1.006 • Poisson stance: St. Truiden (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
St. Truiden xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Charleroi xG
45%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St. Truiden vs Charleroi kick off?
St. Truiden vs Charleroi kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 3 August 2024 at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium.
What was the final score in St. Truiden vs Charleroi?
St. Truiden 1 - 4 Charleroi.
Where is St. Truiden vs Charleroi being played?
The match is being played at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium.
What competition is St. Truiden vs Charleroi part of?
St. Truiden vs Charleroi is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win St. Truiden vs Charleroi?
Our statistical model gives St. Truiden a 51% chance of winning, Charleroi a 22% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making St. Truiden the favourite.
Will both teams score in St. Truiden vs Charleroi?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both St. Truiden and Charleroi will score (BTTS).
Will St. Truiden vs Charleroi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and Charleroi?
Record (6 meetings): St. Truiden 2W | Draws 2 | Charleroi 2W.
What form are St. Truiden and Charleroi in?
St. Truiden (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-D-L-L. Charleroi (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates St. Truiden's attack at 1.02x the league average against Charleroi's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.47 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Charleroi's attack versus St. Truiden's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (31/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.6%), 0-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St. Truiden Win
51%
1.96
27%
3.68
22%
4.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
St. Truiden xG
Total xG
2.33
0.86
Charleroi xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
4.57
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
23%
4.34
Win to Nil
21%
4.66
5%
19.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.2 | 12.3 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.0 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.1 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for St. Truiden vs Charleroi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are St. Truiden and Charleroi expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for St. Truiden and 0.86 for Charleroi, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for St. Truiden vs Charleroi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 37 outings, St. Truiden have picked up 1.24 PPG on a 11W 13D 13L record — D-W-D-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for St. Truiden, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Charleroi's form line: 12W 9D 16L from 37 games, 1.22 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-L. It's still early in the season for Charleroi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: St. Truiden on 1.24 PPG, Charleroi on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, St. Truiden have posted 1.83 PPG from 18 outings (9W 6D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.24 PPG overall — St. Truiden are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Charleroi have gone 4W 4D 10L from 18 away games — 0.89 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, St. Truiden come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
St. Truiden are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Charleroi are on 1.00 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 37 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St. Truiden
Early Season
Charleroi
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are St. Truiden and Charleroi in coming into this match?
St. Truiden have gone 11W 13D 13L in their last 37 games (1.24 PPG), while Charleroi have gone 12W 9D 16L in their last 37 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St. Truiden at home or Charleroi away?
St. Truiden's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St. Truiden at home: 1.83 PPG; Charleroi away: 0.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between St. Truiden and Charleroi runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Aug 2024, when Charleroi won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
St. Truiden's record when hosting Charleroi specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
St. Truiden
3
Draws
5
Charleroi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and Charleroi?
From 10 meetings on record, St. Truiden have won 2, Charleroi have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did St. Truiden and Charleroi last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when St. Truiden 0-2 Charleroi.
Who has won more matches between St. Truiden and Charleroi?
Charleroi have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — St. Truiden 56%, Charleroi 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (St. Truiden) and 44% (Charleroi).
On the defensive side: Charleroi in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St. Truiden home games / Charleroi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when St. Truiden play Charleroi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of St. Truiden's recent matches and 39% of Charleroi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is St. Truiden vs Charleroi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of St. Truiden's recent games and 44% of Charleroi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do St. Truiden and Charleroi tend to score early?
St. Truiden have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Charleroi in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Charleroi run riot with a 1-4 hammering of St. Truiden.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charleroi beat St. Truiden 1-4 at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St. Truiden 1.47 xG and Charleroi 0.86 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Charleroi outscored their 0.86 projection by 3.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St. Truiden attack 1.02 / defence 0.96 against Charleroi attack 0.90 / defence 1.03, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it St. Truiden 51% | Draw 27% | Charleroi 22%, with St. Truiden to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Charleroi win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St. Truiden 43%, Charleroi 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
St. Truiden's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Charleroi's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — St. Truiden 1.24 PPG, Charleroi 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Charleroi win broke the near-deadlock. St. Truiden (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Charleroi (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.72 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.