St. Truiden 2-0 AS Eupen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates St. Truiden at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this St. Truiden vs AS Eupen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
St. Truiden and AS Eupen meet at Stadion Stayen in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Monday 27 December 2021 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
St. Truiden have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for St. Truiden, so this record blends games from this season and last.
St. Truiden at Stadion Stayen this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
AS Eupen's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for AS Eupen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, AS Eupen have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.70 vs 0.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — St. Truiden have seen both teams score in 90% of their games, AS Eupen in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for St. Truiden, 1 for AS Eupen and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Aug 2021, ended 1–2 with AS Eupen winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
St. Truiden half-time and goal-timing data (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 86% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 90% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games).
AS Eupen half-time and goal-timing data (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — St. Truiden 65% and AS Eupen 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (St. Truiden 60% | AS Eupen 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St. Truiden 1.61 xG and AS Eupen 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St. Truiden attack 0.929 / defence 1.206 | AS Eupen attack 0.798 / defence 1.481. League average goals — home 1.173 / away 1.540. AS Eupen bring a strong defensive rating of 1.481 — this is suppressing St. Truiden's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 20 St. Truiden games / 20 AS Eupen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: St. Truiden 41% | Draw 24% | AS Eupen 35%. Fair-value odds: St. Truiden 2.44 | Draw 4.17 | AS Eupen 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.61 / 1.48) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is St. Truiden at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on St. Truiden if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.09 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: St. Truiden 90% | AS Eupen 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St. Truiden vs AS Eupen | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadion Stayen • Kick-off: Monday 27 Dec 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St. Truiden 41% | Draw 24% | AS Eupen 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG St. Truiden 1.61 / AS Eupen 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: St. Truiden attack 0.929 / def 1.206 | AS Eupen attack 0.798 / def 1.481 | league avg home 1.173 / away 1.540 • Poisson stance: St. Truiden (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
St. Truiden xG
Expected Goals
1.48
AS Eupen xG
62%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St. Truiden vs AS Eupen kick off?
St. Truiden vs AS Eupen kicked off at 20:00 on Monday 27 December 2021 at Stadion Stayen.
What was the final score in St. Truiden vs AS Eupen?
St. Truiden 2 - 0 AS Eupen.
Where is St. Truiden vs AS Eupen being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Stayen.
What competition is St. Truiden vs AS Eupen part of?
St. Truiden vs AS Eupen is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win St. Truiden vs AS Eupen?
Our statistical model gives St. Truiden a 41% chance of winning, AS Eupen a 35% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making St. Truiden the favourite.
Will both teams score in St. Truiden vs AS Eupen?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both St. Truiden and AS Eupen will score (BTTS).
Will St. Truiden vs AS Eupen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and AS Eupen?
Record (1 meetings): St. Truiden 0W | Draws 0 | AS Eupen 1W.
What form are St. Truiden and AS Eupen in?
St. Truiden (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. AS Eupen (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates St. Truiden's attack at 0.93x the league average against AS Eupen's defence at 1.48x — combine the two and it projects 1.61 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — AS Eupen's attack (0.80x) against St. Truiden's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.48.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
St. Truiden Win
41%
2.44
24%
4.20
35%
2.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
St. Truiden xG
Total xG
3.09
1.48
AS Eupen xG
2.44
41%
Home win
4.20
24%
Draw
2.84
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.62
Clean Sheet
23%
4.40
20%
5.02
Win to Nil
9%
10.75
7%
14.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 6.7 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 10.8 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.7 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.7 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for St. Truiden vs AS Eupen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are St. Truiden and AS Eupen expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for St. Truiden and 1.48 for AS Eupen, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for St. Truiden vs AS Eupen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 20 outings, St. Truiden have picked up 1.05 PPG on a 6W 3D 11L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for St. Truiden is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AS Eupen's form line: 7W 4D 9L from 20 games, 1.25 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-L. The sample for AS Eupen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.05 PPG for St. Truiden against 1.25 for AS Eupen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, St. Truiden have posted 0.80 PPG from 10 outings (2W 2D 6L).
On the road, AS Eupen have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AS Eupen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
St. Truiden are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; AS Eupen are on 1.50 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: St. Truiden have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; AS Eupen in 65%.
Last 20 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St. Truiden
Blended
AS Eupen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are St. Truiden and AS Eupen in coming into this match?
St. Truiden have gone 6W 3D 11L in their last 20 games (1.05 PPG), while AS Eupen have gone 7W 4D 9L in their last 20 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St. Truiden at home or AS Eupen away?
AS Eupen's away record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St. Truiden at home: 0.80 PPG; AS Eupen away: 1.30 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, St. Truiden have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against AS Eupen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
St. Truiden
1
Draws
3
AS Eupen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and AS Eupen?
From 6 meetings on record, St. Truiden have won 2, AS Eupen have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did St. Truiden and AS Eupen last play each other?
They last met on 10 March 2024, when AS Eupen 1-0 St. Truiden.
Who has won more matches between St. Truiden and AS Eupen?
AS Eupen have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
AS Eupen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 90% for St. Truiden, 60% for AS Eupen — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for St. Truiden and 80% for AS Eupen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: AS Eupen in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St. Truiden home games / AS Eupen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when St. Truiden play AS Eupen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 90% of St. Truiden's games and 60% of AS Eupen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is St. Truiden vs AS Eupen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of St. Truiden's matches and 80% of AS Eupen's.
Do St. Truiden and AS Eupen tend to score early?
St. Truiden have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, AS Eupen in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
St. Truiden cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over AS Eupen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St. Truiden beat AS Eupen 2-0 at Stadion Stayen, Regular Season - 21, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St. Truiden 1.61 xG and AS Eupen 1.48 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. AS Eupen landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St. Truiden attack 0.93 / defence 1.21 against AS Eupen attack 0.80 / defence 1.48, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it St. Truiden 41% | Draw 24% | AS Eupen 35%, with St. Truiden to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St. Truiden 60%, AS Eupen 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
St. Truiden's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
AS Eupen's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — St. Truiden 1.05 PPG, AS Eupen 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the St. Truiden win broke the near-deadlock. St. Truiden (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line. AS Eupen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.70 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.