St. Truiden 0-2 Anderlecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Anderlecht (39%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as St. Truiden face Anderlecht.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Anderlecht travel to Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium to take on St. Truiden in Jupiler Pro League (matchday 18). The game is scheduled for Sunday 15 December 2024 at 17:30 UK time.
Form Guide
St. Truiden — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
St. Truiden's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 5D 1L (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — St. Truiden are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Anderlecht stand at 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Anderlecht's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Anderlecht — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 80% of St. Truiden's games and 60% of Anderlecht's (from St. Truiden's last 10 home games and Anderlecht's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
Anderlecht have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the 5 H2H matches we hold against 0 for St. Truiden.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 27 Jul 2024, ended St. Truiden 0–1 Anderlecht — a Anderlecht win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Anderlecht have won 5 of 5 H2H matches, and at 2.8 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading Patterns
St. Truiden in-play and half-time data (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).
Anderlecht in-play and half-time data (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; of the 27 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St. Truiden 58% versus Anderlecht 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St. Truiden 47% | Anderlecht 60%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: St. Truiden surrender their half-time lead 44% of the time, while Anderlecht have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 42% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Anderlecht surrender HT leads in 26% of cases while St. Truiden recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 40% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St. Truiden 1.21 xG and Anderlecht 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St. Truiden attack 1.002 / defence 1.122 | Anderlecht attack 1.278 / defence 0.712. League average goals — home 1.693 / away 1.004. Anderlecht bring a tight defence (rating 0.712, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling St. Truiden's projected output down. Anderlecht have an above-average attack rating of 1.278, which lifts their away xG to 1.44. Data: built from St. Truiden's last 47 games and Anderlecht's last 47.
Result probabilities: St. Truiden 28% | Draw 33% | Anderlecht 39%. Fair-value odds: St. Truiden 3.57 | Draw 3.00 | Anderlecht 2.58. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Anderlecht at 39% — marginal model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Anderlecht offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.65 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 51% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: St. Truiden 80% (last 10 home games) | Anderlecht 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St. Truiden vs Anderlecht | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, matchday 18 | Venue: Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 15 December 2024 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St. Truiden 28% | Draw 33% | Anderlecht 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG St. Truiden 1.21 / Anderlecht 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: St. Truiden attack 1.002 / def 1.122 | Anderlecht attack 1.278 / def 0.712 | league avg home 1.693 / away 1.004 • Poisson stance: Anderlecht (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
St. Truiden xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Anderlecht xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ St. Truiden vs Anderlecht FAQs
What time does St. Truiden vs Anderlecht kick off?
St. Truiden vs Anderlecht kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Sunday 15 December 2024 at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium.
What was the final score in St. Truiden vs Anderlecht?
St. Truiden 0 - 2 Anderlecht.
Where is St. Truiden vs Anderlecht being played?
The match is being played at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium.
What competition is St. Truiden vs Anderlecht part of?
St. Truiden vs Anderlecht is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (matchday 18) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win St. Truiden vs Anderlecht?
Our statistical model gives St. Truiden a 28% chance of winning, Anderlecht a 39% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Anderlecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in St. Truiden vs Anderlecht?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both St. Truiden and Anderlecht will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will St. Truiden vs Anderlecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
St. Truiden's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Anderlecht's defensive record (0.71x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.21. The same calculation in reverse, Anderlecht's attack versus St. Truiden's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from St. Truiden's last 47 games and Anderlecht's last 47 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 0-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Anderlecht Win
28%
3.57
33%
3.00
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
St. Truiden xG
Total xG
2.65
1.44
Anderlecht xG
3.57
28%
Home win
3.00
33%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
24%
4.21
30%
3.34
Win to Nil
7%
15.05
12%
8.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 10.2 | 7.3 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.3 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.4 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ St. Truiden vs Anderlecht Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for St. Truiden vs Anderlecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are St. Truiden and Anderlecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for St. Truiden and 1.44 for Anderlecht, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for St. Truiden vs Anderlecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
St. Truiden come into this having played 57 games, going 17W 20D 20L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-D-L.
On the other side, Anderlecht sit at 1.88 PPG from 57 outings (30W 17D 10L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-W across their last five.
Anderlecht carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.63 PPG clear of St. Truiden — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
St. Truiden's home form reads 13W 10D 5L across their last 28 home games, a 1.75 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.25 PPG overall — St. Truiden are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Anderlecht have taken 1.46 points per game from their last 28 away games (10W 11D 7L). That's a step down from their 1.88 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Anderlecht's recent record.
Goals in Recent Form
St. Truiden are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Anderlecht are on 1.79 scored and 0.96 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Anderlecht in 61%.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St. Truiden
Blended
Anderlecht
Blended
St. Truiden (Home) vs Anderlecht (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
St. Truiden
Blended
Anderlecht
Blended
❓ St. Truiden vs Anderlecht Form FAQs
What form are St. Truiden and Anderlecht in coming into this match?
St. Truiden have gone 17W 20D 20L in their last 57 games (1.25 PPG), while Anderlecht have gone 30W 17D 10L in their last 57 (1.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St. Truiden at home or Anderlecht away?
St. Truiden's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St. Truiden at home: 1.75 PPG; Anderlecht away: 1.46 PPG.
Have St. Truiden or Anderlecht been keeping clean sheets recently?
St. Truiden have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Anderlecht in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from August 2022. All of them came in Jupiler Pro League. The most recent was on 21 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 14 Aug 2022, when Anderlecht won St. Truiden 0-3 Anderlecht.
St. Truiden's record when hosting Anderlecht specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
St. Truiden
1
Draws
8
Anderlecht
Recent Meetings
❓ St. Truiden vs Anderlecht H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and Anderlecht?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, St. Truiden have won 1, Anderlecht have won 8, and 1 has been drawn.
When did St. Truiden and Anderlecht last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 May 2026: Anderlecht 3-1 St. Truiden.
Who has won more matches between St. Truiden and Anderlecht?
Anderlecht have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 62% of those situations.
Anderlecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — St. Truiden 57%, Anderlecht 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (St. Truiden) and 61% (Anderlecht).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St. Truiden home games / Anderlecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ St. Truiden vs Anderlecht Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in St. Truiden and Anderlecht matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of St. Truiden's games and 71% of Anderlecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are St. Truiden and Anderlecht matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of St. Truiden's recent games and 61% of Anderlecht's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do St. Truiden and Anderlecht matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of St. Truiden's recent matches and 82% of Anderlecht's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Anderlecht cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over St. Truiden.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Anderlecht beat St. Truiden 0-2 at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St. Truiden 1.21 xG and Anderlecht 1.44 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. St. Truiden fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St. Truiden attack 1.00 / defence 1.12 against Anderlecht attack 1.28 / defence 0.71, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it St. Truiden 28% | Draw 33% | Anderlecht 39%, with Anderlecht to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St. Truiden 47%, Anderlecht 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
St. Truiden's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Anderlecht's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Anderlecht arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.25. The form guide was vindicated by the result. St. Truiden (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Anderlecht (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.