SK Beveren 1-2 Union St. Gilloise – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Union St. Gilloise at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SK Beveren vs Union St. Gilloise encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
SK Beveren host Union St. Gilloise at Freethiel Stadion in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 31 October 2026 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
SK Beveren — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W W L L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for SK Beveren, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SK Beveren's form when playing at home: 9W 0D 1L across 10 games at Freethiel Stadion this term (2.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 8 clean sheets from 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Freethiel Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — SK Beveren are significantly better at Freethiel Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Union St. Gilloise stand at 8W 2D 0L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Union St. Gilloise, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Union St. Gilloise's away record: 7W 1D 2L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form points away from home here. Union St. Gilloise's 2.60 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of SK Beveren's 1.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Trading Patterns
SK Beveren in-play and half-time data (41 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Union St. Gilloise in-play and half-time data (41 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SK Beveren 51% versus Union St. Gilloise 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SK Beveren 63% | Union St. Gilloise 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SK Beveren 1.04 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SK Beveren attack 0.875 / defence 0.985 | Union St. Gilloise attack 1.367 / defence 0.687. League average goals — home 1.734 / away 1.360. Union St. Gilloise's defence strength of 0.687 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Union St. Gilloise have an above-average attack strength of 1.367 — the away xG of 1.83 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 9 SK Beveren games / 39 Union St. Gilloise games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SK Beveren 21% | Draw 23% | Union St. Gilloise 56%. Fair-value odds: SK Beveren 4.76 | Draw 4.35 | Union St. Gilloise 1.79. The model has a clear lean to Union St. Gilloise (56%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Union St. Gilloise at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.87 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: SK Beveren 20% | Union St. Gilloise 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SK Beveren vs Union St. Gilloise | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Freethiel Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Oct 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SK Beveren 21% | Draw 23% | Union St. Gilloise 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 54% | xG SK Beveren 1.04 / Union St. Gilloise 1.83 • Poisson strength factors: SK Beveren attack 0.875 / def 0.985 | Union St. Gilloise attack 1.367 / def 0.687 | league avg home 1.734 / away 1.360 • Poisson stance: Union St. Gilloise (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
SK Beveren xG
Expected Goals
1.83
Union St. Gilloise xG
54%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SK Beveren vs Union St. Gilloise kick off?
SK Beveren vs Union St. Gilloise kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 31 October 2026 at Freethiel Stadion.
What was the final score in SK Beveren vs Union St. Gilloise?
SK Beveren 1 - 2 Union St. Gilloise.
Where is SK Beveren vs Union St. Gilloise being played?
The match is being played at Freethiel Stadion.
What competition is SK Beveren vs Union St. Gilloise part of?
SK Beveren vs Union St. Gilloise is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win SK Beveren vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our statistical model gives SK Beveren a 21% chance of winning, Union St. Gilloise a 56% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Union St. Gilloise the favourite.
Will both teams score in SK Beveren vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both SK Beveren and Union St. Gilloise will score (BTTS).
Will SK Beveren vs Union St. Gilloise have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between SK Beveren and Union St. Gilloise?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SK Beveren and Union St. Gilloise in?
SK Beveren (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-W-L-L-D. Union St. Gilloise (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 3.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from SK Beveren's attack rating (0.88) and Union St. Gilloise's defence rating (0.69), the model arrives at 1.04 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Union St. Gilloise's attack versus SK Beveren's defence, projects 1.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union St. Gilloise Win
21%
4.69
23%
4.38
56%
1.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
SK Beveren xG
Total xG
2.87
1.83
Union St. Gilloise xG
4.69
21%
Home win
4.38
23%
Draw
1.79
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
16%
6.25
35%
2.83
Win to Nil
3%
29.30
20%
5.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 10.3 | 9.5 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.8 | 9.9 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 5.6 | 5.1 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SK Beveren vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are SK Beveren and Union St. Gilloise expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for SK Beveren and 1.83 for Union St. Gilloise, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for SK Beveren vs Union St. Gilloise?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
SK Beveren come into this having played 41 games, going 31W 5D 5L for 2.39 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-D. The sample for SK Beveren is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Union St. Gilloise sit at 2.17 PPG from 41 outings (26W 11D 4L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Union St. Gilloise is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: SK Beveren on 2.39 PPG, Union St. Gilloise on 2.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
SK Beveren's home form reads 17W 1D 1L across 19 games on their own ground, a 2.74 PPG return.
Away from home, Union St. Gilloise have taken 1.63 points per game from 19 outings (8W 7D 4L). That's a step down from their 2.17 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Union St. Gilloise's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SK Beveren come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
SK Beveren are averaging 2.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Union St. Gilloise are on 1.85 scored and 0.71 conceded. SK Beveren's scoring rate against Union St. Gilloise's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: SK Beveren have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games; Union St. Gilloise in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SK Beveren
Blended
Union St. Gilloise
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SK Beveren and Union St. Gilloise in coming into this match?
SK Beveren have gone 31W 5D 5L in their last 41 games (2.39 PPG), while Union St. Gilloise have gone 26W 11D 4L in their last 41 (2.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SK Beveren at home or Union St. Gilloise away?
SK Beveren's home record (2.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SK Beveren at home: 2.74 PPG; Union St. Gilloise away: 1.63 PPG.
Have SK Beveren or Union St. Gilloise been keeping clean sheets recently?
SK Beveren have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Union St. Gilloise in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
1 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 31 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
SK Beveren
0
Draws
1
Union St. Gilloise
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SK Beveren and Union St. Gilloise?
From 1 meetings on record, SK Beveren have won 0, Union St. Gilloise have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SK Beveren and Union St. Gilloise last play each other?
They last met on 31 October 2026, when SK Beveren 1-2 Union St. Gilloise.
Who has won more matches between SK Beveren and Union St. Gilloise?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SK Beveren are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SK Beveren 42%, Union St. Gilloise 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (SK Beveren) and 42% (Union St. Gilloise).
On the defensive side: SK Beveren keep a clean sheet in 58% of their matches; Union St. Gilloise in 32%; Union St. Gilloise in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SK Beveren home games / Union St. Gilloise away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SK Beveren play Union St. Gilloise?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of SK Beveren's recent matches and 53% of Union St. Gilloise's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SK Beveren vs Union St. Gilloise usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of SK Beveren's recent games and 42% of Union St. Gilloise's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SK Beveren and Union St. Gilloise tend to score early?
SK Beveren have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Union St. Gilloise in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Union St. Gilloise edge out SK Beveren 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union St. Gilloise beat SK Beveren 1-2 at Freethiel Stadion, Regular Season - 10, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SK Beveren 1.04 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.83 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SK Beveren attack 0.88 / defence 0.98 against Union St. Gilloise attack 1.37 / defence 0.69, drawn from 9/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SK Beveren 21% | Draw 23% | Union St. Gilloise 56%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SK Beveren 63%, Union St. Gilloise 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SK Beveren's trading profile (41 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (41 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SK Beveren 2.39 PPG, Union St. Gilloise 2.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Union St. Gilloise win broke the near-deadlock. SK Beveren (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.63 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.