SK Beveren vs OH Leuven – Live
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Poisson rates SK Beveren at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SK Beveren vs OH Leuven encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Freethiel Stadion plays host to SK Beveren versus OH Leuven in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off: Sunday 6 September 2026 at 17:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
SK Beveren have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W L W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. SK Beveren have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
SK Beveren's form when playing at home: 10W 0D 0L across 10 games at Freethiel Stadion this term (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Freethiel Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — SK Beveren are significantly better at Freethiel Stadion than their overall form suggests.
OH Leuven's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. OH Leuven have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
OH Leuven's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 1.40 in SK Beveren's favour (1.90 vs 0.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading
SK Beveren half-time and goal-timing data (36 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
OH Leuven half-time and goal-timing data (36 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SK Beveren 53% versus OH Leuven 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SK Beveren 64% | OH Leuven 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SK Beveren 1.24 xG and OH Leuven 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SK Beveren attack 0.795 / defence 0.986 | OH Leuven attack 0.830 / defence 1.024. League average goals — home 1.523 / away 1.386. SK Beveren's attack strength of 0.795 is below the league average — the 1.24 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 4 SK Beveren games / 34 OH Leuven games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SK Beveren 39% | Draw 28% | OH Leuven 34%. Fair-value odds: SK Beveren 2.56 | Draw 3.57 | OH Leuven 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates SK Beveren as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SK Beveren if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.37 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SK Beveren 30% | OH Leuven 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SK Beveren vs OH Leuven | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Freethiel Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Sep 2026, 17:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SK Beveren 39% | Draw 28% | OH Leuven 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG SK Beveren 1.24 / OH Leuven 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: SK Beveren attack 0.795 / def 0.986 | OH Leuven attack 0.830 / def 1.024 | league avg home 1.523 / away 1.386 • Poisson stance: SK Beveren (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
SK Beveren xG
Expected Goals
1.13
OH Leuven xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SK Beveren vs OH Leuven kick off?
SK Beveren vs OH Leuven kicked off at 17:15 on Sunday 6 September 2026 at Freethiel Stadion. The match is currently in progress.
Where is SK Beveren vs OH Leuven being played?
The match is being played at Freethiel Stadion.
What competition is SK Beveren vs OH Leuven part of?
SK Beveren vs OH Leuven is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win SK Beveren vs OH Leuven?
Our statistical model gives SK Beveren a 39% chance of winning, OH Leuven a 34% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making SK Beveren the favourite.
Will both teams score in SK Beveren vs OH Leuven?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both SK Beveren and OH Leuven will score (BTTS).
Will SK Beveren vs OH Leuven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between SK Beveren and OH Leuven?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SK Beveren and OH Leuven in?
SK Beveren (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. OH Leuven (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
SK Beveren's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against OH Leuven's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.24. Flip it around — OH Leuven's attack (0.83x) against SK Beveren's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from 4/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.0%), 1-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SK Beveren Win
39%
2.59
28%
3.60
34%
2.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
SK Beveren xG
Total xG
2.37
1.13
OH Leuven xG
2.59
39%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
2.98
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
32%
3.11
29%
3.46
Win to Nil
12%
8.04
10%
10.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 10.6 | 6.0 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.1 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.1 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SK Beveren vs OH Leuven?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are SK Beveren and OH Leuven expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for SK Beveren and 1.13 for OH Leuven, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for SK Beveren vs OH Leuven?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 36 outings, SK Beveren have picked up 2.53 PPG on a 29W 4D 3L record — W-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for SK Beveren, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
OH Leuven's form line: 8W 9D 19L from 36 games, 0.92 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for OH Leuven, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, SK Beveren are the form team by 1.61 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against OH Leuven.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, SK Beveren have posted 2.88 PPG from 17 outings (16W 1D 0L).
On the road, OH Leuven have gone 4W 5D 8L from 17 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SK Beveren come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SK Beveren are averaging 2.11 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; OH Leuven are on 1.00 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Defensively: SK Beveren have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SK Beveren
Early Season
OH Leuven
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SK Beveren and OH Leuven in coming into this match?
SK Beveren have gone 29W 4D 3L in their last 36 games (2.53 PPG), while OH Leuven have gone 8W 9D 19L in their last 36 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SK Beveren at home or OH Leuven away?
SK Beveren's home record (2.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SK Beveren at home: 2.88 PPG; OH Leuven away: 1.00 PPG.
Have SK Beveren or OH Leuven been keeping clean sheets recently?
SK Beveren have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, OH Leuven in 22%.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SK Beveren are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
OH Leuven see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SK Beveren 41%, OH Leuven 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (SK Beveren) and 47% (OH Leuven).
On the defensive side: SK Beveren keep a clean sheet in 59% of their matches; OH Leuven in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SK Beveren home games / OH Leuven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SK Beveren play OH Leuven?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of SK Beveren's recent matches and 59% of OH Leuven's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SK Beveren vs OH Leuven usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of SK Beveren's recent games and 47% of OH Leuven's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SK Beveren and OH Leuven tend to score early?
SK Beveren have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, OH Leuven in 47% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.