Seraing United 1-2 St. Truiden – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates St. Truiden at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Seraing United vs St. Truiden fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Seraing United host St. Truiden at Stade du Pairay in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 5 November 2022 at 17:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Seraing United have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Seraing United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Seraing United have posted 0W 3D 7L at Stade du Pairay — 0.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.30 lags behind their overall 0.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade du Pairay this season.
St. Truiden — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for St. Truiden, so this record blends games from this season and last.
St. Truiden's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour St. Truiden — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Seraing United's 30% rate and St. Truiden's 20% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Seraing United have won 1, St. Truiden 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 Jan 2022, ended 1–3 with St. Truiden winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Seraing United trading profile (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 49% of games.
St. Truiden trading profile (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Seraing United 43% versus St. Truiden 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Seraing United 55% | St. Truiden 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Seraing United 0.69 xG and St. Truiden 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Seraing United attack 0.536 / defence 1.038 | St. Truiden attack 0.831 / defence 0.789. League average goals — home 1.630 / away 1.466. Seraing United's attack strength of 0.536 is below the league average — the 0.69 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. St. Truiden's defence strength of 0.789 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 49 Seraing United games / 49 St. Truiden games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Seraing United 20% | Draw 30% | St. Truiden 50%. Fair-value odds: Seraing United 5.00 | Draw 3.33 | St. Truiden 2.00. St. Truiden hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates St. Truiden as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on St. Truiden offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.95 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 36% on No. Form rates corroborate: Seraing United 30% | St. Truiden 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Seraing United vs St. Truiden | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stade du Pairay • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Nov 2022, 17:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Seraing United 20% | Draw 30% | St. Truiden 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 36% | xG Seraing United 0.69 / St. Truiden 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Seraing United attack 0.536 / def 1.038 | St. Truiden attack 0.831 / def 0.789 | league avg home 1.630 / away 1.466 • Poisson stance: St. Truiden (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.69
Seraing United xG
Expected Goals
1.26
St. Truiden xG
36%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Seraing United vs St. Truiden kick off?
Seraing United vs St. Truiden kicked off at 17:15 on Saturday 5 November 2022 at Stade du Pairay.
What was the final score in Seraing United vs St. Truiden?
Seraing United 1 - 2 St. Truiden.
Where is Seraing United vs St. Truiden being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Pairay.
What competition is Seraing United vs St. Truiden part of?
Seraing United vs St. Truiden is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Seraing United vs St. Truiden?
Our statistical model gives Seraing United a 20% chance of winning, St. Truiden a 50% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making St. Truiden the favourite.
Will both teams score in Seraing United vs St. Truiden?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Seraing United and St. Truiden will score (BTTS).
Will Seraing United vs St. Truiden have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Seraing United and St. Truiden?
Record (2 meetings): Seraing United 1W | Draws 0 | St. Truiden 1W.
What form are Seraing United and St. Truiden in?
Seraing United (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. St. Truiden (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Seraing United's attack at 0.54x the league average against St. Truiden's defence at 0.79x — combine the two and it projects 0.69 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, St. Truiden's attack versus Seraing United's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 16.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (15.8%), 1-1 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St. Truiden Win
20%
4.93
30%
3.39
50%
1.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.2%
Draw
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.69
Seraing United xG
Total xG
1.95
1.26
St. Truiden xG
4.93
20%
Home win
3.39
30%
Draw
1.99
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.80
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
28%
3.54
50%
1.99
Win to Nil
6%
17.44
25%
3.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.2 | 17.9 | 11.3 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.4 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Seraing United vs St. Truiden?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.3%.
How many goals are Seraing United and St. Truiden expected to score?
The model projects 0.69 expected goals for Seraing United and 1.26 for St. Truiden, a combined total of 1.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Seraing United vs St. Truiden?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Seraing United come into this having played 49 games, going 11W 7D 31L for 0.82 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-L-L. The sample for Seraing United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, St. Truiden sit at 1.45 PPG from 49 outings (20W 11D 18L), a run that reads L-W-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for St. Truiden is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
St. Truiden carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.63 PPG clear of Seraing United — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Seraing United's home form reads 4W 5D 15L across 24 games on their own ground, a 0.71 PPG return.
Away from home, St. Truiden have taken 1.58 points per game from 24 outings (11W 5D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, St. Truiden come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Seraing United are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game recently; St. Truiden are on 1.16 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Seraing United
Blended
St. Truiden
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Seraing United and St. Truiden in coming into this match?
Seraing United have gone 11W 7D 31L in their last 49 games (0.82 PPG), while St. Truiden have gone 20W 11D 18L in their last 49 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Seraing United at home or St. Truiden away?
St. Truiden's away record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Seraing United at home: 0.71 PPG; St. Truiden away: 1.58 PPG.
Have Seraing United or St. Truiden been keeping clean sheets recently?
Seraing United have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, St. Truiden in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
St. Truiden go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Seraing United's record when hosting St. Truiden specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Seraing United
0
Draws
3
St. Truiden
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Seraing United and St. Truiden?
From 4 meetings on record, Seraing United have won 1, St. Truiden have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Seraing United and St. Truiden last play each other?
They last met on 18 March 2023, when St. Truiden 2-1 Seraing United.
Who has won more matches between Seraing United and St. Truiden?
St. Truiden have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Seraing United see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Seraing United 33% BTTS, St. Truiden 33%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Seraing United) and 33% (St. Truiden).
On the defensive side: St. Truiden in 46%; Seraing United have failed to score in 62% of games; St. Truiden in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Seraing United home games / St. Truiden away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Seraing United play St. Truiden?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Seraing United's recent matches and 33% of St. Truiden's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Seraing United vs St. Truiden usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Seraing United's recent games and 33% of St. Truiden's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Seraing United and St. Truiden tend to score early?
Seraing United have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, St. Truiden in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as St. Truiden edge out Seraing United 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St. Truiden beat Seraing United 1-2 at Stade du Pairay, Regular Season - 16, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Seraing United 0.69 xG and St. Truiden 1.26 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Seraing United attack 0.54 / defence 1.04 against St. Truiden attack 0.83 / defence 0.79, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Seraing United 20% | Draw 30% | St. Truiden 50%, with St. Truiden to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Seraing United 55%, St. Truiden 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Seraing United's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
St. Truiden's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, St. Truiden arrived the stronger side — 1.45 PPG against 0.82. The form guide was vindicated by the result. St. Truiden (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.