OH Leuven 4-2 Zulte Waregem – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates OH Leuven at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this OH Leuven vs Zulte Waregem fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
OH Leuven and Zulte Waregem meet at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 28. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 4 March 2023 at 17:15 UTC.
Current Form
OH Leuven's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 1W 5D 4L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: D L D L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for OH Leuven, so this record blends games from this season and last.
OH Leuven's form when playing at home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 games at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Zulte Waregem have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L L D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Zulte Waregem, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zulte Waregem's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.80 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — OH Leuven lead 1W to 0W over the last 3 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.7 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 8 Oct 2022, ended 5–2 with OH Leuven winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
OH Leuven half-time and goal-timing data (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Zulte Waregem half-time and goal-timing data (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — OH Leuven 64% and Zulte Waregem 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (OH Leuven 57% | Zulte Waregem 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects OH Leuven 1.53 xG and Zulte Waregem 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OH Leuven attack 0.857 / defence 0.943 | Zulte Waregem attack 0.853 / defence 1.131. League average goals — home 1.577 / away 1.275. Data: 61 OH Leuven games / 61 Zulte Waregem games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: OH Leuven 48% | Draw 28% | Zulte Waregem 24%. Fair-value odds: OH Leuven 2.08 | Draw 3.57 | Zulte Waregem 4.17. OH Leuven hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, OH Leuven are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on OH Leuven if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.56 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: OH Leuven 60% | Zulte Waregem 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: OH Leuven vs Zulte Waregem | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: King Power at Den Dreef Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Mar 2023, 17:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: OH Leuven 48% | Draw 28% | Zulte Waregem 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG OH Leuven 1.53 / Zulte Waregem 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: OH Leuven attack 0.857 / def 0.943 | Zulte Waregem attack 0.853 / def 1.131 | league avg home 1.577 / away 1.275 • Poisson stance: OH Leuven (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
OH Leuven xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Zulte Waregem xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does OH Leuven vs Zulte Waregem kick off?
OH Leuven vs Zulte Waregem kicked off at 17:15 on Saturday 4 March 2023 at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion.
What was the final score in OH Leuven vs Zulte Waregem?
OH Leuven 4 - 2 Zulte Waregem.
Where is OH Leuven vs Zulte Waregem being played?
The match is being played at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion.
What competition is OH Leuven vs Zulte Waregem part of?
OH Leuven vs Zulte Waregem is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win OH Leuven vs Zulte Waregem?
Our statistical model gives OH Leuven a 48% chance of winning, Zulte Waregem a 24% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making OH Leuven the favourite.
Will both teams score in OH Leuven vs Zulte Waregem?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both OH Leuven and Zulte Waregem will score (BTTS).
Will OH Leuven vs Zulte Waregem have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between OH Leuven and Zulte Waregem?
Record (3 meetings): OH Leuven 1W | Draws 2 | Zulte Waregem 0W.
What form are OH Leuven and Zulte Waregem in?
OH Leuven (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-D-L-D. Zulte Waregem (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from OH Leuven's attack rating (0.86) and Zulte Waregem's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.53 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Zulte Waregem's attack (0.85x) against OH Leuven's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.3%), 0-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
OH Leuven Win
48%
2.10
28%
3.51
24%
4.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
OH Leuven xG
Total xG
2.56
1.03
Zulte Waregem xG
2.10
48%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
4.17
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
22%
4.62
Win to Nil
17%
5.87
5%
19.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 8.0 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 12.2 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for OH Leuven vs Zulte Waregem?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are OH Leuven and Zulte Waregem expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for OH Leuven and 1.03 for Zulte Waregem, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for OH Leuven vs Zulte Waregem?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
OH Leuven's recent record stands at 18W 20D 23L from 61 games, a 1.21 PPG return, with D-L-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for OH Leuven is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Zulte Waregem, meanwhile, have gone 13W 16D 32L across 61 games — 0.90 PPG, with L-L-D-D-D in their last five. The sample for Zulte Waregem is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.21 PPG for OH Leuven against 0.90 for Zulte Waregem. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, OH Leuven have managed 11W 9D 10L from 30 games — 1.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Zulte Waregem's away record stands at 5W 8D 17L across 30 trips, a 0.77 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, OH Leuven come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
OH Leuven are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Zulte Waregem are on 1.26 scored and 2.07 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: OH Leuven have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Zulte Waregem in 61%.
Last 61 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
OH Leuven
Blended
Zulte Waregem
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are OH Leuven and Zulte Waregem in coming into this match?
OH Leuven have gone 18W 20D 23L in their last 61 games (1.21 PPG), while Zulte Waregem have gone 13W 16D 32L in their last 61 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — OH Leuven at home or Zulte Waregem away?
OH Leuven's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — OH Leuven at home: 1.40 PPG; Zulte Waregem away: 0.77 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 7 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: OH Leuven won 2-5 on 8 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, OH Leuven have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Zulte Waregem — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
OH Leuven
3
Draws
1
Zulte Waregem
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between OH Leuven and Zulte Waregem?
From 6 meetings on record, OH Leuven have won 2, Zulte Waregem have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did OH Leuven and Zulte Waregem last play each other?
They last met on 7 December 2025, when OH Leuven 1-1 Zulte Waregem.
Who has won more matches between OH Leuven and Zulte Waregem?
OH Leuven have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
OH Leuven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Zulte Waregem are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — OH Leuven 60%, Zulte Waregem 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (OH Leuven) and 53% (Zulte Waregem).
On the defensive side: OH Leuven have failed to score in 27% of games; Zulte Waregem in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = OH Leuven home games / Zulte Waregem away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when OH Leuven play Zulte Waregem?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of OH Leuven's games and 57% of Zulte Waregem's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is OH Leuven vs Zulte Waregem usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of OH Leuven's recent games and 53% of Zulte Waregem's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do OH Leuven and Zulte Waregem tend to score early?
OH Leuven have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Zulte Waregem in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
OH Leuven cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Zulte Waregem.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
OH Leuven beat Zulte Waregem 4-2 at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion, Regular Season - 28, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting OH Leuven 1.53 xG and Zulte Waregem 1.03 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. OH Leuven beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Zulte Waregem outscored their 1.03 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OH Leuven attack 0.86 / defence 0.94 against Zulte Waregem attack 0.85 / defence 1.13, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it OH Leuven 48% | Draw 28% | Zulte Waregem 24%, with OH Leuven to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OH Leuven 57%, Zulte Waregem 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
OH Leuven's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Zulte Waregem's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — OH Leuven 1.21 PPG, Zulte Waregem 0.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the OH Leuven win broke the near-deadlock. OH Leuven (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.43 average — above their attacking norm. Zulte Waregem (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.