OH Leuven vs Charleroi – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Charleroi at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this OH Leuven vs Charleroi encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
OH Leuven and Charleroi meet at Den Dreef in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 32. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 8 May 2027 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
OH Leuven (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this term — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L D W D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for OH Leuven, so this record blends games from this season and last.
OH Leuven's home record at Den Dreef: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Jupiler Pro League appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Charleroi's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 8W 1D 1L from 10 games (2.50 PPG). Last five: W L W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Charleroi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Charleroi have gone 7W 1D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Charleroi arrive in superior form — a 1.90 PPG advantage (2.50 vs 0.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — OH Leuven have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Charleroi in only 20%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 10 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for OH Leuven, 3 for Charleroi and 4 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Aug 2026, ended 1–3 with Charleroi winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
OH Leuven — key trading statistics (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Charleroi — key trading statistics (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — OH Leuven 48% versus Charleroi 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (OH Leuven 46% | Charleroi 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects OH Leuven 0.88 xG and Charleroi 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OH Leuven attack 0.828 / defence 0.991 | Charleroi attack 1.044 / defence 0.673. League average goals — home 1.582 / away 1.301. Charleroi's defence strength of 0.673 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 38 OH Leuven games / 38 Charleroi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: OH Leuven 25% | Draw 28% | Charleroi 48%. Fair-value odds: OH Leuven 4.00 | Draw 3.57 | Charleroi 2.08. Charleroi hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Charleroi are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Charleroi if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.23 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: OH Leuven 30% | Charleroi 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: OH Leuven vs Charleroi | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Den Dreef • Kick-off: Saturday 8 May 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: OH Leuven 25% | Draw 28% | Charleroi 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 43% | xG OH Leuven 0.88 / Charleroi 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: OH Leuven attack 0.828 / def 0.991 | Charleroi attack 1.044 / def 0.673 | league avg home 1.582 / away 1.301 • Poisson stance: Charleroi (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
OH Leuven xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Charleroi xG
43%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does OH Leuven vs Charleroi kick off?
OH Leuven vs Charleroi is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 8 May 2027 at Den Dreef.
Where is OH Leuven vs Charleroi being played?
The match is being played at Den Dreef.
What competition is OH Leuven vs Charleroi part of?
OH Leuven vs Charleroi is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win OH Leuven vs Charleroi?
Our statistical model gives OH Leuven a 25% chance of winning, Charleroi a 48% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Charleroi the favourite.
Will both teams score in OH Leuven vs Charleroi?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both OH Leuven and Charleroi will score (BTTS).
Will OH Leuven vs Charleroi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between OH Leuven and Charleroi?
Record (10 meetings): OH Leuven 3W | Draws 4 | Charleroi 3W.
What form are OH Leuven and Charleroi in?
OH Leuven (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-W-D. Charleroi (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates OH Leuven's attack at 0.83x the league average against Charleroi's defence at 0.67x — combine the two and it projects 0.88 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Charleroi's attack (1.04x) against OH Leuven's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (12.9%), 0-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charleroi Win
25%
4.08
28%
3.58
48%
2.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
OH Leuven xG
Total xG
2.23
1.34
Charleroi xG
4.08
25%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
2.10
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
26%
3.84
41%
2.41
Win to Nil
6%
15.65
20%
5.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 14.5 | 9.8 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.8 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 5.6 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for OH Leuven vs Charleroi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are OH Leuven and Charleroi expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for OH Leuven and 1.34 for Charleroi, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for OH Leuven vs Charleroi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
OH Leuven come into this having played 48 games, going 11W 12D 25L for 0.94 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-D. The sample for OH Leuven is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Charleroi sit at 1.50 PPG from 48 outings (21W 9D 18L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Charleroi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Charleroi carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.56 PPG clear of OH Leuven — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
OH Leuven's home form reads 6W 6D 12L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Charleroi have taken 1.62 points per game from 24 outings (12W 3D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Charleroi come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
OH Leuven are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Charleroi are on 1.38 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
OH Leuven
Blended
Charleroi
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are OH Leuven and Charleroi in coming into this match?
OH Leuven have gone 11W 12D 25L in their last 48 games (0.94 PPG), while Charleroi have gone 21W 9D 18L in their last 48 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — OH Leuven at home or Charleroi away?
Charleroi's away record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — OH Leuven at home: 1.00 PPG; Charleroi away: 1.62 PPG.
Have OH Leuven or Charleroi been keeping clean sheets recently?
OH Leuven have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Charleroi in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to February 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, OH Leuven have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Charleroi — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
OH Leuven
4
Draws
3
Charleroi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between OH Leuven and Charleroi?
From 10 meetings on record, OH Leuven have won 3, Charleroi have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did OH Leuven and Charleroi last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when Charleroi 3-1 OH Leuven.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
OH Leuven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — OH Leuven 46%, Charleroi 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (OH Leuven) and 38% (Charleroi).
On the defensive side: Charleroi in 38%; OH Leuven have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = OH Leuven home games / Charleroi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when OH Leuven play Charleroi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of OH Leuven's recent matches and 42% of Charleroi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is OH Leuven vs Charleroi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of OH Leuven's recent games and 38% of Charleroi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do OH Leuven and Charleroi tend to score early?
OH Leuven have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Charleroi in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.