OH Leuven 0-0 Anderlecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Anderlecht at 38% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this OH Leuven vs Anderlecht encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
King Power at Den Dreef Stadion plays host to OH Leuven versus Anderlecht in Jupiler Pro League (matchday 16). Kick-off: Sunday 1 December 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Current Form
OH Leuven's record over their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). Last five: D W L D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
In front of their own supporters, OH Leuven have posted 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — OH Leuven are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Anderlecht (all games): 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 — 1.50 points per game. Last five: L L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Anderlecht's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Anderlecht arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from OH Leuven's last 10 home games and Anderlecht's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 70% of OH Leuven's games and 70% of Anderlecht's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 7 H2H matches in our data, Anderlecht edge it 2 wins to 0, with 5 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.9 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 10 Aug 2024, ended OH Leuven 1–1 Anderlecht — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 2.9 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
OH Leuven — key trading statistics (last 55 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Anderlecht — key trading statistics (last 55 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; of the 27 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — OH Leuven 58% and Anderlecht 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (OH Leuven 46% | Anderlecht 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects OH Leuven 1.06 xG and Anderlecht 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OH Leuven attack 0.797 / defence 0.956 | Anderlecht attack 1.385 / defence 0.745. League average goals — home 1.785 / away 0.987. OH Leuven's attack rating of 0.797 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.06. Anderlecht bring a tight defence (rating 0.745, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling OH Leuven's projected output down. Anderlecht have an above-average attack rating of 1.385, which lifts their away xG to 1.31. Data: built from OH Leuven's last 45 games and Anderlecht's last 45.
Result probabilities: OH Leuven 26% | Draw 35% | Anderlecht 38%. Fair-value odds: OH Leuven 3.79 | Draw 2.84 | Anderlecht 2.60. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Anderlecht at 38% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Anderlecht if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.37 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 58% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 2.9 goals per game across 7 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: OH Leuven 70% (last 10 home games) | Anderlecht 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: OH Leuven vs Anderlecht | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, matchday 16 | Venue: King Power at Den Dreef Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 1 December 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: OH Leuven 26% | Draw 35% | Anderlecht 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG OH Leuven 1.06 / Anderlecht 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: OH Leuven attack 0.797 / def 0.956 | Anderlecht attack 1.385 / def 0.745 | league avg home 1.785 / away 0.987 • Poisson stance: Anderlecht (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
OH Leuven xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Anderlecht xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ OH Leuven vs Anderlecht FAQs
What time does OH Leuven vs Anderlecht kick off?
OH Leuven vs Anderlecht kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Sunday 1 December 2024 at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion.
What was the final score in OH Leuven vs Anderlecht?
OH Leuven 0 - 0 Anderlecht.
Where is OH Leuven vs Anderlecht being played?
The match is being played at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion.
What competition is OH Leuven vs Anderlecht part of?
OH Leuven vs Anderlecht is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (matchday 16) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win OH Leuven vs Anderlecht?
Our statistical model gives OH Leuven a 26% chance of winning, Anderlecht a 38% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Anderlecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in OH Leuven vs Anderlecht?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both OH Leuven and Anderlecht will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will OH Leuven vs Anderlecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from OH Leuven's attack rating (0.80) and Anderlecht's defence rating (0.74), the model arrives at 1.06 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Anderlecht's attack (1.39x) against OH Leuven's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from OH Leuven's last 45 games and Anderlecht's last 45 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.1%), 0-1 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Anderlecht Win
26%
3.79
35%
2.84
38%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
OH Leuven xG
Total xG
2.37
1.31
Anderlecht xG
3.79
26%
Home win
2.84
35%
Draw
2.60
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.94
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
27%
3.70
35%
2.88
Win to Nil
7%
14.02
13%
7.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 12.3 | 8.0 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 13.0 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 6.9 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ OH Leuven vs Anderlecht Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for OH Leuven vs Anderlecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are OH Leuven and Anderlecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for OH Leuven and 1.31 for Anderlecht, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for OH Leuven vs Anderlecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
OH Leuven's recent record stands at 14W 19D 22L from 55 games, a 1.11 PPG return, with D-W-L-D-D in the last five.
Anderlecht, meanwhile, have gone 29W 16D 10L across 55 games — 1.87 PPG, with L-L-W-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Anderlecht by 0.76 — a real, if not enormous, edge over OH Leuven heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, OH Leuven have managed 10W 8D 9L from their last 27 home games — 1.41 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Anderlecht's away record stands at 10W 10D 7L across their last 27 away games, a 1.48 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
OH Leuven are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Anderlecht are on 1.82 scored and 0.98 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Anderlecht in 62%.
Last 55 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
OH Leuven
Blended
Anderlecht
Blended
OH Leuven (Home) vs Anderlecht (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
OH Leuven
Blended
Anderlecht
Blended
❓ OH Leuven vs Anderlecht Form FAQs
What form are OH Leuven and Anderlecht in coming into this match?
OH Leuven have gone 14W 19D 22L in their last 55 games (1.11 PPG), while Anderlecht have gone 29W 16D 10L in their last 55 (1.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — OH Leuven at home or Anderlecht away?
Anderlecht's away record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — OH Leuven at home: 1.41 PPG; Anderlecht away: 1.48 PPG.
Have OH Leuven or Anderlecht been keeping clean sheets recently?
OH Leuven have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Anderlecht in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Jupiler Pro League. The most recent was on 28 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Anderlecht won Anderlecht 5-1 OH Leuven on 28 Oct 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, OH Leuven have gone 0W 4D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Anderlecht — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
OH Leuven
7
Draws
3
Anderlecht
Recent Meetings
❓ OH Leuven vs Anderlecht H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between OH Leuven and Anderlecht?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, OH Leuven have won 0, Anderlecht have won 3, and 7 have been drawn.
When did OH Leuven and Anderlecht last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 February 2026: Anderlecht 5-1 OH Leuven.
Who has won more matches between OH Leuven and Anderlecht?
Anderlecht have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
OH Leuven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Anderlecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 59% for OH Leuven, 74% for Anderlecht — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (OH Leuven) and 63% (Anderlecht).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = OH Leuven home games / Anderlecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ OH Leuven vs Anderlecht Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in OH Leuven and Anderlecht matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of OH Leuven's games and 74% of Anderlecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are OH Leuven and Anderlecht matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of OH Leuven's recent games and 63% of Anderlecht's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do OH Leuven and Anderlecht matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of OH Leuven's recent matches and 85% of Anderlecht's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at OH Leuven's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
OH Leuven and Anderlecht finished level at 0-0 at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion, Regular Season - 16, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting OH Leuven 1.06 xG and Anderlecht 1.31 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. OH Leuven fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Anderlecht landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OH Leuven attack 0.80 / defence 0.96 against Anderlecht attack 1.39 / defence 0.74, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it OH Leuven 26% | Draw 35% | Anderlecht 38%, with Anderlecht to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OH Leuven 46%, Anderlecht 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
OH Leuven's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Anderlecht's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Anderlecht arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 1.11. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. OH Leuven (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.37 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line. Anderlecht (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.