Gent 2-0 St. Truiden – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gent at 75% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Gent face St. Truiden.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Gent and St. Truiden meet at Planet Group Arena in Jupiler Pro League (matchday 17). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 7 December 2024 at 19:45 UK time.
Form
Gent (all games): 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters, Gent have posted 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Gent are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
St. Truiden have collected 1.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W L W L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.80. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
St. Truiden's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 3D 6L (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Gent against 1.50 for St. Truiden. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Gent edge it 2 wins to 1, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 6 Oct 2024, ended Gent 1–1 St. Truiden — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Gent half-time and goal-timing data (last 56 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
St. Truiden half-time and goal-timing data (last 56 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gent 57% versus St. Truiden 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gent 55% | St. Truiden 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gent 2.88 xG and St. Truiden 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gent attack 1.193 / defence 0.906 | St. Truiden attack 1.025 / defence 1.350. League average goals — home 1.788 / away 1.025. St. Truiden's defence rating of 1.350 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Gent's projected output up. Data: built from Gent's last 46 games and St. Truiden's last 46.
Result probabilities: Gent 75% | Draw 17% | St. Truiden 8%. Fair-value odds: Gent 1.33 | Draw 5.80 | St. Truiden 12.92. The model has a clear lean to Gent (75%) — a 58pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 3.83. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.83 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (2.88 / 0.95) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gent at 75% — clear model lean.
Poisson projects 3.83 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 74% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Gent's last 10 home games and St. Truiden's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Gent 40% (last 10 home games) | St. Truiden 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gent vs St. Truiden | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, matchday 17 | Venue: Planet Group Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 7 December 2024 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gent 75% | Draw 17% | St. Truiden 8% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% (Under 26%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG Gent 2.88 / St. Truiden 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Gent attack 1.193 / def 0.906 | St. Truiden attack 1.025 / def 1.350 | league avg home 1.788 / away 1.025 • Poisson stance: Gent (75%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.88
Gent xG
Expected Goals
0.95
St. Truiden xG
60%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Gent vs St. Truiden FAQs
What time does Gent vs St. Truiden kick off?
Gent vs St. Truiden kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Saturday 7 December 2024 at Planet Group Arena.
What was the final score in Gent vs St. Truiden?
Gent 2 - 0 St. Truiden.
Where is Gent vs St. Truiden being played?
The match is being played at Planet Group Arena.
What competition is Gent vs St. Truiden part of?
Gent vs St. Truiden is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (matchday 17) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Gent vs St. Truiden?
Our statistical model gives Gent a 75% chance of winning, St. Truiden a 8% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Gent the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gent vs St. Truiden?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Gent and St. Truiden will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Gent vs St. Truiden have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Gent's attack rating (1.19) and St. Truiden's defence rating (1.35), the model arrives at 2.88 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — St. Truiden's attack (1.02x) against Gent's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from Gent's last 46 games and St. Truiden's last 46 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.0%. Close behind: 3-0 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Gent Win
75%
1.33
17%
5.80
8%
12.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
3 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.88
Gent xG
Total xG
3.83
0.95
St. Truiden xG
1.33
75%
Home win
5.80
17%
Draw
12.92
8%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
53%
Over 3.5
1.89
47%
Under 3.5
2.13
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
6%
17.80
Win to Nil
29%
3.45
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 6.2 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.0 | 8.6 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.6 | 8.2 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 6.2 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Gent vs St. Truiden Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Gent vs St. Truiden?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.0%.
How many goals are Gent and St. Truiden expected to score?
The model projects 2.88 expected goals for Gent and 0.95 for St. Truiden, a combined total of 3.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Gent vs St. Truiden?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 75%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Gent's recent record stands at 26W 16D 14L from 56 games, a 1.68 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-D in the last five.
St. Truiden, meanwhile, have gone 17W 20D 19L across 56 games — 1.27 PPG, with W-L-W-L-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Gent by 0.41 — a real, if not enormous, edge over St. Truiden heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Gent have managed 14W 7D 5L from their last 26 home games — 1.88 PPG in front of their own supporters.
St. Truiden's away record stands at 3W 9D 14L across their last 26 away games, a 0.69 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.27 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of St. Truiden's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gent come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Gent are averaging 1.84 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; St. Truiden are on 1.27 scored and 1.68 conceded.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gent
Blended
St. Truiden
Blended
Gent (Home) vs St. Truiden (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Gent
Blended
St. Truiden
Blended
❓ Gent vs St. Truiden Form FAQs
What form are Gent and St. Truiden in coming into this match?
Gent have gone 26W 16D 14L in their last 56 games (1.68 PPG), while St. Truiden have gone 17W 20D 19L in their last 56 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gent at home or St. Truiden away?
Gent's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gent at home: 1.88 PPG; St. Truiden away: 0.69 PPG.
Have Gent or St. Truiden been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gent have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, St. Truiden in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Jupiler Pro League. The most recent was on 16 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: St. Truiden won St. Truiden 4-1 Gent on 1 Feb 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gent have gone 2W 2D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against St. Truiden — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Gent
4
Draws
3
St. Truiden
Recent Meetings
❓ Gent vs St. Truiden H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Gent and St. Truiden?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Gent have won 3, St. Truiden have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Gent and St. Truiden last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 May 2026: St. Truiden 1-1 Gent.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Gent are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gent 65%, St. Truiden 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Gent and 58% for St. Truiden. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: St. Truiden in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gent home games / St. Truiden away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Gent vs St. Truiden Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Gent and St. Truiden matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Gent's games and 62% of St. Truiden's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Gent and St. Truiden matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Gent's matches and 58% of St. Truiden's.
Do Gent and St. Truiden matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 88% of Gent's recent matches and 73% of St. Truiden's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gent cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over St. Truiden.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gent beat St. Truiden 2-0 at Planet Group Arena, Regular Season - 17, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gent 2.88 xG and St. Truiden 0.95 xG, a combined 3.83. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Gent fell 0.9 short of their projected output. St. Truiden landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gent attack 1.19 / defence 0.91 against St. Truiden attack 1.02 / defence 1.35, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gent 75% | Draw 17% | St. Truiden 8%, with Gent to win its most likely call at 75%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 53% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gent 55%, St. Truiden 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gent's trading profile (56 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
St. Truiden's trading profile (56 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Gent arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.27. That form edge translated into the three points. Gent (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line. St. Truiden (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.