Genk 3-2 St. Truiden – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Genk at 60% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Genk vs St. Truiden encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Genk welcome St. Truiden to Cegeka Arena in Jupiler Pro League (matchday 11). Kick-off is Sunday 20 October 2024 at 13:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Genk have gone 7W 1D 2L — a 2.20 PPG return. Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Genk at home: 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at their last 10 matches, St. Truiden stand at 2W 5D 3L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
St. Truiden away from home: 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Genk carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.10 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.20 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 6 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Genk, 1 for St. Truiden and 4 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 28 Jan 2024, ended Genk 1–1 St. Truiden — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Genk in-play and half-time data (last 50 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
St. Truiden in-play and half-time data (last 50 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 47%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genk 52% versus St. Truiden 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Genk 52% | St. Truiden 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genk 2.00 xG and St. Truiden 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genk attack 1.209 / defence 0.831 | St. Truiden attack 1.070 / defence 1.059. League average goals — home 1.567 / away 1.032. Data: built from Genk's last 40 games and St. Truiden's last 40.
Result probabilities: Genk 60% | Draw 26% | St. Truiden 14%. Fair-value odds: Genk 1.67 | Draw 3.79 | St. Truiden 7.29. The model has a clear lean to Genk (60%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Genk at 60% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.92 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Genk 40% (last 10 home games) | St. Truiden 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genk vs St. Truiden | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, matchday 11 | Venue: Cegeka Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 20 October 2024 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genk 60% | Draw 26% | St. Truiden 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Genk 2.00 / St. Truiden 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Genk attack 1.209 / def 0.831 | St. Truiden attack 1.070 / def 1.059 | league avg home 1.567 / away 1.032 • Poisson stance: Genk (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.00
Genk xG
Expected Goals
0.92
St. Truiden xG
55%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Genk vs St. Truiden FAQs
What time does Genk vs St. Truiden kick off?
Genk vs St. Truiden kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Sunday 20 October 2024 at Cegeka Arena.
What was the final score in Genk vs St. Truiden?
Genk 3 - 2 St. Truiden.
Where is Genk vs St. Truiden being played?
The match is being played at Cegeka Arena.
What competition is Genk vs St. Truiden part of?
Genk vs St. Truiden is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (matchday 11) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Genk vs St. Truiden?
Our statistical model gives Genk a 60% chance of winning, St. Truiden a 14% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Genk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genk vs St. Truiden?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Genk and St. Truiden will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Genk vs St. Truiden have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Genk's attack rating (1.21) and St. Truiden's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 2.00 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, St. Truiden's attack versus Genk's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Genk's last 40 games and St. Truiden's last 40 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.8%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Genk Win
60%
1.67
26%
3.79
14%
7.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.00
Genk xG
Total xG
2.92
0.92
St. Truiden xG
1.67
60%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
7.29
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
13%
7.43
Win to Nil
24%
4.19
2%
54.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.8 | 9.9 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.2 | 6.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Genk vs St. Truiden Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Genk vs St. Truiden?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Genk and St. Truiden expected to score?
The model projects 2.00 expected goals for Genk and 0.92 for St. Truiden, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Genk vs St. Truiden?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 50 outings, Genk have picked up 1.58 PPG on a 22W 13D 15L record — W-W-W-W-L across the most recent five.
St. Truiden's form line: 15W 19D 16L from 50 games, 1.28 PPG, last five D-W-W-D-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Genk on 1.58 PPG, St. Truiden on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Genk have posted 1.88 PPG from their last 25 home games (13W 8D 4L).
On the road, St. Truiden have gone 4W 10D 11L from their last 25 away games — 0.88 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.28 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of St. Truiden's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Genk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Genk are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; St. Truiden are on 1.24 scored and 1.58 conceded.
Last 50 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genk
Blended
St. Truiden
Blended
Genk (Home) vs St. Truiden (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Genk
Blended
St. Truiden
Blended
❓ Genk vs St. Truiden Form FAQs
What form are Genk and St. Truiden in coming into this match?
Genk have gone 22W 13D 15L in their last 50 games (1.58 PPG), while St. Truiden have gone 15W 19D 16L in their last 50 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genk at home or St. Truiden away?
Genk's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genk at home: 1.88 PPG; St. Truiden away: 0.88 PPG.
Have Genk or St. Truiden been keeping clean sheets recently?
Genk have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, St. Truiden in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2021. All of them came in Jupiler Pro League. The most recent was on 15 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Genk have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
Genk's record when hosting St. Truiden specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Genk
5
Draws
1
St. Truiden
Recent Meetings
❓ Genk vs St. Truiden H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Genk and St. Truiden?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Genk have won 4, St. Truiden have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Genk and St. Truiden last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 March 2026: Genk 1-0 St. Truiden.
Who has won more matches between Genk and St. Truiden?
Genk have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Genk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 71% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genk 44%, St. Truiden 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Genk) and 52% (St. Truiden).
On the defensive side: Genk keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; St. Truiden in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genk home games / St. Truiden away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Genk vs St. Truiden Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Genk and St. Truiden matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Genk's recent matches and 60% of St. Truiden's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Genk and St. Truiden matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Genk's recent games and 52% of St. Truiden's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Genk and St. Truiden matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Genk's recent matches and 68% of St. Truiden's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Genk edge out St. Truiden 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Genk beat St. Truiden 3-2 at Cegeka Arena, Regular Season - 11, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genk 2.00 xG and St. Truiden 0.92 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Genk beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. St. Truiden outscored their 0.92 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genk attack 1.21 / defence 0.83 against St. Truiden attack 1.07 / defence 1.06, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genk 60% | Draw 26% | St. Truiden 14%, with Genk to win its most likely call at 60%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genk 52%, St. Truiden 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genk's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
St. Truiden's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Genk 1.58 PPG, St. Truiden 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Genk win broke the near-deadlock. Genk (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.72 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. St. Truiden (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.