Genk 2-0 Anderlecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Genk at 51% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Genk vs Anderlecht encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Cegeka Arena plays host to Genk versus Anderlecht in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Sunday 8 February 2026 at 12:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Genk have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D L L D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Genk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Cegeka Arena, Genk have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Anderlecht (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: D L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Anderlecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Jupiler Pro League this season, Anderlecht have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Historically, Genk have had the better of this match-up — 5 wins from 9 meetings, with Anderlecht managing just 2 victories and 2 draws shared.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Sep 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The historical record gives Genk a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Data
Genk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Anderlecht goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genk 64% versus Anderlecht 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Genk 59% | Anderlecht 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genk 1.84 xG and Anderlecht 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genk attack 1.064 / defence 1.137 | Anderlecht attack 0.867 / defence 1.376. League average goals — home 1.254 / away 1.289. Anderlecht bring a strong defensive rating of 1.376 — this is suppressing Genk's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 53 Genk games / 53 Anderlecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Genk 51% | Draw 23% | Anderlecht 26%. Fair-value odds: Genk 1.96 | Draw 4.35 | Anderlecht 3.85. Genk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.84 / 1.27) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Genk at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Genk if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.11 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Genk 80% | Anderlecht 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genk vs Anderlecht | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Cegeka Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Feb 2026, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genk 51% | Draw 23% | Anderlecht 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 61% | xG Genk 1.84 / Anderlecht 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Genk attack 1.064 / def 1.137 | Anderlecht attack 0.867 / def 1.376 | league avg home 1.254 / away 1.289 • Poisson stance: Genk (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
Genk xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Anderlecht xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Genk vs Anderlecht kick off?
Genk vs Anderlecht kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 8 February 2026 at Cegeka Arena.
What was the final score in Genk vs Anderlecht?
Genk 2 - 0 Anderlecht.
Where is Genk vs Anderlecht being played?
The match is being played at Cegeka Arena.
What competition is Genk vs Anderlecht part of?
Genk vs Anderlecht is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Genk vs Anderlecht?
Our statistical model gives Genk a 51% chance of winning, Anderlecht a 26% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Genk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genk vs Anderlecht?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Genk and Anderlecht will score (BTTS).
Will Genk vs Anderlecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Genk and Anderlecht?
Record (9 meetings): Genk 5W | Draws 2 | Anderlecht 2W.
What form are Genk and Anderlecht in?
Genk (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-D-W. Anderlecht (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Genk's attack at 1.06x the league average against Anderlecht's defence at 1.38x — combine the two and it projects 1.84 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Anderlecht's attack (0.87x) against Genk's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Genk Win
51%
1.98
23%
4.32
26%
3.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
Genk xG
Total xG
3.11
1.27
Anderlecht xG
1.98
51%
Home win
4.32
23%
Draw
3.80
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.54
Clean Sheet
28%
3.56
16%
6.28
Win to Nil
14%
7.04
4%
23.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 5.7 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 10.4 | 6.6 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.6 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.9 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Genk vs Anderlecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Genk and Anderlecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Genk and 1.27 for Anderlecht, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Genk vs Anderlecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Genk's recent record stands at 32W 14D 17L from 63 games, a 1.75 PPG return, with D-L-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for Genk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Anderlecht, meanwhile, have gone 28W 13D 22L across 63 games — 1.54 PPG, with D-L-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Anderlecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.75 PPG for Genk against 1.54 for Anderlecht. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Genk have managed 18W 6D 7L from 31 games — 1.94 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Anderlecht's away record stands at 12W 6D 13L across 31 trips, a 1.35 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Genk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Genk are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Anderlecht are on 1.46 scored and 1.08 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Genk have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Defensively: Anderlecht in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genk
Blended
Anderlecht
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Genk and Anderlecht in coming into this match?
Genk have gone 32W 14D 17L in their last 63 games (1.75 PPG), while Anderlecht have gone 28W 13D 22L in their last 63 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genk at home or Anderlecht away?
Genk's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genk at home: 1.94 PPG; Anderlecht away: 1.35 PPG.
Have Genk or Anderlecht been keeping clean sheets recently?
Genk have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Anderlecht in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Genk have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Anderlecht — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Genk
2
Draws
2
Anderlecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Genk and Anderlecht?
From 10 meetings on record, Genk have won 6, Anderlecht have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Genk and Anderlecht last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Genk 2-0 Anderlecht.
Who has won more matches between Genk and Anderlecht?
Genk have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Genk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Anderlecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genk 55%, Anderlecht 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Genk) and 36% (Anderlecht).
On the defensive side: Genk keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Anderlecht in 36%; Anderlecht in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genk home games / Anderlecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Genk play Anderlecht?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Genk's recent matches and 36% of Anderlecht's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Genk vs Anderlecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Genk's recent games and 36% of Anderlecht's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Genk and Anderlecht tend to score early?
Genk have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Anderlecht in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Genk cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Anderlecht.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Genk beat Anderlecht 2-0 at Cegeka Arena, Regular Season - 24, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genk 1.84 xG and Anderlecht 1.27 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Anderlecht landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genk attack 1.06 / defence 1.14 against Anderlecht attack 0.87 / defence 1.38, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genk 51% | Draw 23% | Anderlecht 26%, with Genk to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genk 59%, Anderlecht 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genk's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Anderlecht's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Genk 1.75 PPG, Anderlecht 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Genk win broke the near-deadlock. Genk (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line. Anderlecht (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.