Dender 1-1 OH Leuven – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dender at 37% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Dender face OH Leuven.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Dender host OH Leuven at DENDER Football Complex in Jupiler Pro League (matchday 14). Kick-off is Saturday 9 November 2024 at 17:15 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Dender stand at 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D W D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Dender's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
OH Leuven — last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
On the road, OH Leuven have gone 2W 4D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Dender at 0.90 PPG versus OH Leuven's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Profile
Dender in-play tendencies (last 43 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
OH Leuven in-play tendencies (last 43 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dender 58% versus OH Leuven 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dender 54% | OH Leuven 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dender 1.45 xG and OH Leuven 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dender attack 0.848 / defence 1.454 | OH Leuven attack 0.879 / defence 1.091. League average goals — home 1.567 / away 1.038. Dender's defence rating of 1.454 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing OH Leuven's projected output up. Data: built from Dender's last 13 games and OH Leuven's last 43.
Result probabilities: Dender 37% | Draw 32% | OH Leuven 31%. Fair-value odds: Dender 2.70 | Draw 3.17 | OH Leuven 3.18. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dender are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dender offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.78 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Dender's last 10 home games and OH Leuven's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Dender 60% (last 10 home games) | OH Leuven 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dender vs OH Leuven | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, matchday 14 | Venue: DENDER Football Complex • Kick-off: Saturday 9 November 2024 at 17:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dender 37% | Draw 32% | OH Leuven 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Dender 1.45 / OH Leuven 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Dender attack 0.848 / def 1.454 | OH Leuven attack 0.879 / def 1.091 | league avg home 1.567 / away 1.038 • Poisson stance: Dender (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Dender xG
Expected Goals
1.33
OH Leuven xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Dender vs OH Leuven FAQs
What time does Dender vs OH Leuven kick off?
Dender vs OH Leuven kicked off at 17:15 UK time on Saturday 9 November 2024 at DENDER Football Complex.
What was the final score in Dender vs OH Leuven?
Dender 1 - 1 OH Leuven.
Where is Dender vs OH Leuven being played?
The match is being played at DENDER Football Complex.
What competition is Dender vs OH Leuven part of?
Dender vs OH Leuven is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (matchday 14) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Dender vs OH Leuven?
Our statistical model gives Dender a 37% chance of winning, OH Leuven a 31% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Dender the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dender vs OH Leuven?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Dender and OH Leuven will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Dender vs OH Leuven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Dender's attack rating (0.85) and OH Leuven's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.45 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, OH Leuven's attack versus Dender's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Dender's last 13 games and OH Leuven's last 43 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dender Win
37%
2.70
32%
3.17
31%
3.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Dender xG
Total xG
2.78
1.33
OH Leuven xG
2.70
37%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
3.18
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
27%
3.77
23%
4.26
Win to Nil
10%
10.19
7%
13.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 8.3 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.0 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.7 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.2 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Dender vs OH Leuven Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Dender vs OH Leuven?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Dender and OH Leuven expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Dender and 1.33 for OH Leuven, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Dender vs OH Leuven?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Dender's recent record stands at 19W 13D 11L from 43 games, a 1.63 PPG return, with D-W-D-L-L in the last five.
OH Leuven, meanwhile, have gone 12W 14D 17L across 43 games — 1.16 PPG, with L-L-D-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Dender by 0.47 — a real, if not enormous, edge over OH Leuven heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Dender have managed 9W 7D 6L from their last 22 home games — 1.55 PPG in front of their own supporters.
OH Leuven's away record stands at 3W 9D 10L across their last 22 away games, a 0.82 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dender come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Dender are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; OH Leuven are on 1.05 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 43 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dender
Blended
OH Leuven
Blended
Dender (Home) vs OH Leuven (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Dender
Blended
OH Leuven
Blended
❓ Dender vs OH Leuven Form FAQs
What form are Dender and OH Leuven in coming into this match?
Dender have gone 19W 13D 11L in their last 43 games (1.63 PPG), while OH Leuven have gone 12W 14D 17L in their last 43 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dender at home or OH Leuven away?
Dender's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dender at home: 1.55 PPG; OH Leuven away: 0.82 PPG.
Have Dender or OH Leuven been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dender have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, OH Leuven in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2024. All of them came in Jupiler Pro League. The most recent was on 14 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
OH Leuven have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 11 May 2025, when Dender won Dender 5-0 OH Leuven.
Dender's record when hosting OH Leuven specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Dender
2
Draws
3
OH Leuven
Recent Meetings
❓ Dender vs OH Leuven H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Dender and OH Leuven?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Dender have won 1, OH Leuven have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dender and OH Leuven last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 February 2026: OH Leuven 3-2 Dender.
Who has won more matches between Dender and OH Leuven?
OH Leuven have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Dender are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
OH Leuven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dender 59%, OH Leuven 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Dender) and 41% (OH Leuven).
On the defensive side: Dender keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; OH Leuven in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dender home games / OH Leuven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Dender vs OH Leuven Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Dender and OH Leuven matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Dender's recent matches and 46% of OH Leuven's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Dender and OH Leuven matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Dender's recent games and 41% of OH Leuven's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dender and OH Leuven matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Dender's recent matches and 77% of OH Leuven's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dender and OH Leuven share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dender and OH Leuven finished level at 1-1 at DENDER Football Complex, Regular Season - 14, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dender 1.45 xG and OH Leuven 1.33 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dender attack 0.85 / defence 1.45 against OH Leuven attack 0.88 / defence 1.09, drawn from 13/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dender 37% | Draw 32% | OH Leuven 31%, with Dender to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dender 54%, OH Leuven 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dender's trading profile (43 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
OH Leuven's trading profile (43 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Dender arrived the stronger side — 1.63 PPG against 1.16. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.