Dender 2-1 Charleroi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Charleroi at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Dender face Charleroi.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Charleroi travel to DENDER Football Complex to take on Dender in Jupiler Pro League (Conference League Play-off Group - 5). The game is scheduled for Tuesday 22 April 2025 at 20:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Dender stand at 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W L D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Dender at home: 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Charleroi — last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
On the road, Charleroi have gone 3W 4D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Dender 0.90 PPG, Charleroi 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Dender, 1 for Charleroi and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 1 Feb 2025, ended Dender 0–5 Charleroi — a Charleroi win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Dender in-play tendencies (last 64 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Charleroi in-play tendencies (last 64 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dender 58% versus Charleroi 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dender 53% | Charleroi 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dender 0.99 xG and Charleroi 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dender attack 0.634 / defence 1.064 | Charleroi attack 1.081 / defence 1.060. League average goals — home 1.472 / away 1.113. Dender's attack rating of 0.634 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.99. Data: built from Dender's last 30 games and Charleroi's last 60.
Result probabilities: Dender 26% | Draw 33% | Charleroi 41%. Fair-value odds: Dender 3.79 | Draw 3.05 | Charleroi 2.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Charleroi as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Charleroi offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.27 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Dender's last 10 home games and Charleroi's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Dender 40% (last 10 home games) | Charleroi 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dender vs Charleroi | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Conference League Play-off Group - 5 | Venue: DENDER Football Complex • Kick-off: Tuesday 22 April 2025 at 20:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dender 26% | Draw 33% | Charleroi 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Dender 0.99 / Charleroi 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Dender attack 0.634 / def 1.064 | Charleroi attack 1.081 / def 1.060 | league avg home 1.472 / away 1.113 • Poisson stance: Charleroi (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Dender xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Charleroi xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Dender vs Charleroi FAQs
What time does Dender vs Charleroi kick off?
Dender vs Charleroi kicked off at 20:30 UK time on Tuesday 22 April 2025 at DENDER Football Complex.
What was the final score in Dender vs Charleroi?
Dender 2 - 1 Charleroi.
Where is Dender vs Charleroi being played?
The match is being played at DENDER Football Complex.
What competition is Dender vs Charleroi part of?
Dender vs Charleroi is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (Conference League Play-off Group - 5) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Dender vs Charleroi?
Our statistical model gives Dender a 26% chance of winning, Charleroi a 41% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Charleroi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dender vs Charleroi?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Dender and Charleroi will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Dender vs Charleroi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Dender's attack rating (0.63) and Charleroi's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 0.99 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Charleroi's attack versus Dender's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Dender's last 30 games and Charleroi's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.0%), 0-1 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charleroi Win
26%
3.79
33%
3.05
41%
2.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Dender xG
Total xG
2.27
1.28
Charleroi xG
3.79
26%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
2.45
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
28%
3.60
37%
2.69
Win to Nil
7%
13.64
15%
6.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 13.2 | 8.5 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 13.1 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 6.5 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Dender vs Charleroi Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Dender vs Charleroi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Dender and Charleroi expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Dender and 1.28 for Charleroi, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Dender vs Charleroi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Dender's recent record stands at 24W 19D 21L from 64 games, a 1.42 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-D in the last five.
Charleroi, meanwhile, have gone 24W 14D 26L across 64 games — 1.34 PPG, with L-D-W-D-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Dender on 1.42 PPG, Charleroi on 1.34. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Dender have managed 12W 11D 9L from their last 32 home games — 1.47 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Charleroi's away record stands at 8W 8D 16L across their last 32 away games, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dender come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Dender are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Charleroi are on 1.17 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 64 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dender
Current Season
Charleroi
Current Season
Dender (Home) vs Charleroi (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Dender
Current Season
Charleroi
Current Season
❓ Dender vs Charleroi Form FAQs
What form are Dender and Charleroi in coming into this match?
Dender have gone 24W 19D 21L in their last 64 games (1.42 PPG), while Charleroi have gone 24W 14D 26L in their last 64 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dender at home or Charleroi away?
Dender's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dender at home: 1.47 PPG; Charleroi away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Dender or Charleroi been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dender have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Charleroi in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2024. All of them came in Jupiler Pro League. The most recent was on 7 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 1 Feb 2025, when Charleroi won Charleroi 5-0 Dender.
Dender's record when hosting Charleroi specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Dender
1
Draws
3
Charleroi
Recent Meetings
❓ Dender vs Charleroi H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Dender and Charleroi?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Dender have won 2, Charleroi have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Dender and Charleroi last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 March 2026: Dender 2-2 Charleroi.
Who has won more matches between Dender and Charleroi?
Charleroi have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Dender are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dender 53%, Charleroi 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Dender) and 47% (Charleroi).
On the defensive side: Dender keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Charleroi in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dender home games / Charleroi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Dender vs Charleroi Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Dender and Charleroi matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Dender's recent matches and 47% of Charleroi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Dender and Charleroi matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Dender's recent games and 47% of Charleroi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dender and Charleroi matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Dender's recent matches and 62% of Charleroi's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Dender defy the odds to beat Charleroi 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dender beat Charleroi 2-1 at DENDER Football Complex, Conference League Play-off Group - 5, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dender 0.99 xG and Charleroi 1.28 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Dender beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dender attack 0.63 / defence 1.06 against Charleroi attack 1.08 / defence 1.06, drawn from 30/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dender 26% | Draw 33% | Charleroi 41%, with Charleroi to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Dender win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dender 53%, Charleroi 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dender's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Charleroi's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dender 1.42 PPG, Charleroi 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dender win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.