Dender 0-0 Beerschot VA – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dender at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dender vs Beerschot VA encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Dender and Beerschot VA meet at DENDER Football Complex in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 27. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 22 February 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Dender (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Dender, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dender's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at DENDER Football Complex this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Beerschot VA have collected 0.40 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 0W 4D 6L. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Beerschot VA, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Beerschot VA's away record: 0W 1D 9L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (0.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Dender's 1.30 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Beerschot VA's 0.40 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Dender 2W, Beerschot VA 1W, 2D.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Aug 2024, ended 2–1 with Dender winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Dender — key trading statistics (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Beerschot VA — key trading statistics (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dender 57% versus Beerschot VA 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dender 54% | Beerschot VA 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dender 1.50 xG and Beerschot VA 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dender attack 0.724 / defence 1.148 | Beerschot VA attack 0.816 / defence 1.359. League average goals — home 1.520 / away 1.130. Dender's attack strength of 0.724 is below the league average — the 1.50 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Beerschot VA bring a strong defensive rating of 1.359 — this is suppressing Dender's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 Dender games / 26 Beerschot VA games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dender 45% | Draw 30% | Beerschot VA 25%. Fair-value odds: Dender 2.22 | Draw 3.33 | Beerschot VA 4.00. Dender hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Dender at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dender if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.55 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Dender 50% | Beerschot VA 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dender vs Beerschot VA | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: DENDER Football Complex • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Feb 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dender 45% | Draw 30% | Beerschot VA 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 53% | xG Dender 1.50 / Beerschot VA 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Dender attack 0.724 / def 1.148 | Beerschot VA attack 0.816 / def 1.359 | league avg home 1.520 / away 1.130 • Poisson stance: Dender (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Dender xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Beerschot VA xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dender vs Beerschot VA kick off?
Dender vs Beerschot VA kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 22 February 2025 at DENDER Football Complex.
What was the final score in Dender vs Beerschot VA?
Dender 0 - 0 Beerschot VA.
Where is Dender vs Beerschot VA being played?
The match is being played at DENDER Football Complex.
What competition is Dender vs Beerschot VA part of?
Dender vs Beerschot VA is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Dender vs Beerschot VA?
Our statistical model gives Dender a 45% chance of winning, Beerschot VA a 25% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Dender the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dender vs Beerschot VA?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Dender and Beerschot VA will score (BTTS).
Will Dender vs Beerschot VA have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dender and Beerschot VA?
Record (5 meetings): Dender 2W | Draws 2 | Beerschot VA 1W.
What form are Dender and Beerschot VA in?
Dender (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Beerschot VA (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Dender's attack rating (0.72) and Beerschot VA's defence rating (1.36), the model arrives at 1.50 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Beerschot VA's attack (0.82x) against Dender's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.0%), 0-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dender Win
45%
2.22
30%
3.29
25%
4.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Dender xG
Total xG
2.55
1.06
Beerschot VA xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
4.06
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
35%
2.88
22%
4.46
Win to Nil
16%
6.40
6%
18.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 8.2 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 12.3 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.2 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dender vs Beerschot VA?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Dender and Beerschot VA expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Dender and 1.06 for Beerschot VA, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Dender vs Beerschot VA?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Dender's recent record stands at 23W 16D 17L from 56 games, a 1.52 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Dender is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Beerschot VA, meanwhile, have gone 19W 13D 24L across 56 games — 1.25 PPG, with L-L-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Beerschot VA is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.52 PPG for Dender against 1.25 for Beerschot VA. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Dender have managed 11W 9D 8L from 28 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Beerschot VA's away record stands at 10W 2D 16L across 28 trips, a 1.14 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Dender are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Beerschot VA are on 1.25 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dender
Blended
Beerschot VA
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dender and Beerschot VA in coming into this match?
Dender have gone 23W 16D 17L in their last 56 games (1.52 PPG), while Beerschot VA have gone 19W 13D 24L in their last 56 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dender at home or Beerschot VA away?
Dender's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dender at home: 1.50 PPG; Beerschot VA away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Dender or Beerschot VA been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dender have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Beerschot VA in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Challenger Pro League, Jupiler Pro League all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dender have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Beerschot VA — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Dender
3
Draws
1
Beerschot VA
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dender and Beerschot VA?
From 7 meetings on record, Dender have won 3, Beerschot VA have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Dender and Beerschot VA last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Dender 2-0 Beerschot VA.
Who has won more matches between Dender and Beerschot VA?
Dender have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Dender are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Beerschot VA are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dender 57%, Beerschot VA 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Dender) and 64% (Beerschot VA). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dender keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Beerschot VA in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dender home games / Beerschot VA away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dender play Beerschot VA?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Dender's games and 54% of Beerschot VA's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dender vs Beerschot VA usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of Dender's matches and 64% of Beerschot VA's.
Do Dender and Beerschot VA tend to score early?
Dender have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Beerschot VA in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Dender's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at DENDER Football Complex, Regular Season - 27, as Dender and Beerschot VA drew 0-0 in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dender 1.50 xG and Beerschot VA 1.06 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Dender fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Beerschot VA landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dender attack 0.72 / defence 1.15 against Beerschot VA attack 0.82 / defence 1.36, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dender 45% | Draw 30% | Beerschot VA 25%, with Dender to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dender 54%, Beerschot VA 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dender's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Beerschot VA's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dender 1.52 PPG, Beerschot VA 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Dender (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line. Beerschot VA (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.