Club Brugge KV 7-0 St. Truiden – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Club Brugge KV at 55% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Club Brugge KV vs St. Truiden encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
St. Truiden make the trip to Jan Breydelstadion to face Club Brugge KV in Jupiler Pro League (matchday 15). The match kicks off on Saturday 23 November 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form
Club Brugge KV (all games): 6W 3D 1L across their last 10 — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Club Brugge KV have gone 5W 4D 1L in their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
St. Truiden's record over their last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L (1.60 PPG). Last five: D L W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
St. Truiden's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 4D 5L (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form ledger tips toward Club Brugge KV. A 0.50 PPG lead over St. Truiden (2.10 vs 1.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for Club Brugge KV, 1 for St. Truiden and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 17 Mar 2024, ended Club Brugge KV 1–2 St. Truiden — a St. Truiden win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Club Brugge KV half-time and goal-timing data (last 54 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 56%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
St. Truiden half-time and goal-timing data (last 54 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 41%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Club Brugge KV 61% and St. Truiden 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Club Brugge KV 59% | St. Truiden 46%). Note also that St. Truiden surrender HT leads in 44% of cases while Club Brugge KV recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 56% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Club Brugge KV 2.11 xG and St. Truiden 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Club Brugge KV attack 1.143 / defence 1.047 | St. Truiden attack 1.135 / defence 1.145. League average goals — home 1.612 / away 1.044. Data: built from Club Brugge KV's last 44 games and St. Truiden's last 44.
Result probabilities: Club Brugge KV 55% | Draw 26% | St. Truiden 19%. Fair-value odds: Club Brugge KV 1.83 | Draw 3.82 | St. Truiden 5.20. The model has a clear lean to Club Brugge KV (55%) — a 29pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS Yes probability 65% | Total xG 3.35. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.35 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% — both xG figures (2.11 / 1.24) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Club Brugge KV are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.35 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Club Brugge KV's last 10 home games and St. Truiden's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Club Brugge KV 50% (last 10 home games) | St. Truiden 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Club Brugge KV vs St. Truiden | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, matchday 15 | Venue: Jan Breydelstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 23 November 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Club Brugge KV 55% | Draw 26% | St. Truiden 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% (Under 35%) | BTTS Yes 65% (No 35%) | xG Club Brugge KV 2.11 / St. Truiden 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Club Brugge KV attack 1.143 / def 1.047 | St. Truiden attack 1.135 / def 1.145 | league avg home 1.612 / away 1.044 • Poisson stance: Club Brugge KV (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.11
Club Brugge KV xG
Expected Goals
1.24
St. Truiden xG
65%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Club Brugge KV vs St. Truiden FAQs
What time does Club Brugge KV vs St. Truiden kick off?
Club Brugge KV vs St. Truiden kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 23 November 2024 at Jan Breydelstadion.
What was the final score in Club Brugge KV vs St. Truiden?
Club Brugge KV 7 - 0 St. Truiden.
Where is Club Brugge KV vs St. Truiden being played?
The match is being played at Jan Breydelstadion.
What competition is Club Brugge KV vs St. Truiden part of?
Club Brugge KV vs St. Truiden is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (matchday 15) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Club Brugge KV vs St. Truiden?
Our statistical model gives Club Brugge KV a 55% chance of winning, St. Truiden a 19% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Club Brugge KV the favourite.
Will both teams score in Club Brugge KV vs St. Truiden?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Club Brugge KV and St. Truiden will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Club Brugge KV vs St. Truiden have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Club Brugge KV's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against St. Truiden's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.11. Flip it around — St. Truiden's attack (1.14x) against Club Brugge KV's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from Club Brugge KV's last 44 games and St. Truiden's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Club Brugge KV Win
55%
1.83
26%
3.82
19%
5.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
2 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.11
Club Brugge KV xG
Total xG
3.35
1.24
St. Truiden xG
1.83
55%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
5.20
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.87
Clean Sheet
29%
3.46
12%
8.25
Win to Nil
16%
6.34
2%
42.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 9.2 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 6.8 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Club Brugge KV vs St. Truiden Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Club Brugge KV vs St. Truiden?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Club Brugge KV and St. Truiden expected to score?
The model projects 2.11 expected goals for Club Brugge KV and 1.24 for St. Truiden, a combined total of 3.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Club Brugge KV vs St. Truiden?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 54 outings, Club Brugge KV have picked up 1.85 PPG on a 28W 16D 10L record — D-W-W-W-D across the most recent five.
St. Truiden's form line: 17W 19D 18L from 54 games, 1.30 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-W.
Put side by side, Club Brugge KV are the form team by 0.55 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against St. Truiden.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Club Brugge KV have posted 2.00 PPG from their last 26 home games (14W 10D 2L).
On the road, St. Truiden have gone 3W 10D 13L from their last 26 away games — 0.73 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.30 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of St. Truiden's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Club Brugge KV come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Club Brugge KV are averaging 1.96 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; St. Truiden are on 1.28 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Club Brugge KV have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Club Brugge KV have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Club Brugge KV
Blended
St. Truiden
Blended
Club Brugge KV (Home) vs St. Truiden (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Club Brugge KV
Blended
St. Truiden
Blended
❓ Club Brugge KV vs St. Truiden Form FAQs
What form are Club Brugge KV and St. Truiden in coming into this match?
Club Brugge KV have gone 28W 16D 10L in their last 54 games (1.85 PPG), while St. Truiden have gone 17W 19D 18L in their last 54 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Club Brugge KV at home or St. Truiden away?
Club Brugge KV's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Club Brugge KV at home: 2.00 PPG; St. Truiden away: 0.73 PPG.
Have Club Brugge KV or St. Truiden been keeping clean sheets recently?
Club Brugge KV have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, St. Truiden in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Club Brugge KV and St. Truiden, the earliest from January 2023. All of them came in Jupiler Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 25 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Club Brugge KV have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Club Brugge KV won Club Brugge KV 7-0 St. Truiden on 23 Nov 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Club Brugge KV have gone 4W 1D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against St. Truiden — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Club Brugge KV
3
Draws
2
St. Truiden
Recent Meetings
❓ Club Brugge KV vs St. Truiden H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Club Brugge KV and St. Truiden?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Club Brugge KV have won 5, St. Truiden have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Club Brugge KV and St. Truiden last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 October 2026: Club Brugge KV 3-2 St. Truiden.
Who has won more matches between Club Brugge KV and St. Truiden?
Club Brugge KV have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Club Brugge KV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 75% of those situations.
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 71% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Club Brugge KV 62%, St. Truiden 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Club Brugge KV) and 58% (St. Truiden). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Club Brugge KV keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; St. Truiden in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Club Brugge KV home games / St. Truiden away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Club Brugge KV vs St. Truiden Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Club Brugge KV and St. Truiden matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Club Brugge KV's games and 65% of St. Truiden's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Club Brugge KV and St. Truiden matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Club Brugge KV's matches and 58% of St. Truiden's.
Do Club Brugge KV and St. Truiden matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Club Brugge KV's recent matches and 73% of St. Truiden's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Club Brugge KV run riot with a 7-0 hammering of St. Truiden.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Club Brugge KV beat St. Truiden 7-0 at Jan Breydelstadion, Regular Season - 15, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Club Brugge KV 2.11 xG and St. Truiden 1.24 xG, a combined 3.35. The scoreboard read 7-0 for 7 actual goals. Club Brugge KV beat their projection by 4.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. St. Truiden landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Club Brugge KV attack 1.14 / defence 1.05 against St. Truiden attack 1.14 / defence 1.15, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Club Brugge KV 55% | Draw 26% | St. Truiden 19%, with Club Brugge KV to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Club Brugge KV 59%, St. Truiden 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Club Brugge KV's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
St. Truiden's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Club Brugge KV arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.30. That form edge translated into the three points. Club Brugge KV (home/away splits) scored 7 against a 2.19 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line. St. Truiden (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 7 against a 2.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.