Charleroi 0-0 RAAL La Louvière – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Charleroi at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Charleroi vs RAAL La Louvière fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade du Pays de Charleroi plays host to Charleroi versus RAAL La Louvière in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Saturday 29 November 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Charleroi have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 4W 0D 6L. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Charleroi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Charleroi's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Stade du Pays de Charleroi this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Charleroi are significantly better at Stade du Pays de Charleroi than their overall form suggests.
RAAL La Louvière's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D D W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for RAAL La Louvière, so this record blends games from this season and last.
RAAL La Louvière's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Charleroi against 1.30 for RAAL La Louvière. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Charleroi register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, RAAL La Louvière in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Charleroi lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 10 Aug 2025, ended 0–1 with RAAL La Louvière winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Charleroi goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
RAAL La Louvière goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charleroi 59% versus RAAL La Louvière 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charleroi 48% | RAAL La Louvière 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charleroi 1.54 xG and RAAL La Louvière 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charleroi attack 0.964 / defence 0.909 | RAAL La Louvière attack 0.867 / defence 1.202. League average goals — home 1.332 / away 1.041. RAAL La Louvière bring a strong defensive rating of 1.202 — this is suppressing Charleroi's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 45 Charleroi games / 15 RAAL La Louvière games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charleroi 53% | Draw 28% | RAAL La Louvière 19%. Fair-value odds: Charleroi 1.89 | Draw 3.57 | RAAL La Louvière 5.26. Charleroi hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Charleroi as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Charleroi if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.36 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. This conflicts with form data: Charleroi 70% | RAAL La Louvière 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charleroi vs RAAL La Louvière | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stade du Pays de Charleroi • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Nov 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charleroi 53% | Draw 28% | RAAL La Louvière 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 45% | xG Charleroi 1.54 / RAAL La Louvière 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Charleroi attack 0.964 / def 0.909 | RAAL La Louvière attack 0.867 / def 1.202 | league avg home 1.332 / away 1.041 • Poisson stance: Charleroi (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Charleroi xG
Expected Goals
0.82
RAAL La Louvière xG
45%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charleroi vs RAAL La Louvière kick off?
Charleroi vs RAAL La Louvière kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 29 November 2025 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What was the final score in Charleroi vs RAAL La Louvière?
Charleroi 0 - 0 RAAL La Louvière.
Where is Charleroi vs RAAL La Louvière being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What competition is Charleroi vs RAAL La Louvière part of?
Charleroi vs RAAL La Louvière is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Charleroi vs RAAL La Louvière?
Our statistical model gives Charleroi a 53% chance of winning, RAAL La Louvière a 19% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Charleroi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charleroi vs RAAL La Louvière?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Charleroi and RAAL La Louvière will score (BTTS).
Will Charleroi vs RAAL La Louvière have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and RAAL La Louvière?
Record (1 meetings): Charleroi 0W | Draws 0 | RAAL La Louvière 1W.
What form are Charleroi and RAAL La Louvière in?
Charleroi (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. RAAL La Louvière (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Charleroi's attack at 0.96x the league average against RAAL La Louvière's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 1.54 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — RAAL La Louvière's attack (0.87x) against Charleroi's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
These ratings are built from 45/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.0%), 2-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charleroi Win
53%
1.87
28%
3.60
19%
5.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Charleroi xG
Total xG
2.36
0.82
RAAL La Louvière xG
1.87
53%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
5.31
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
44%
2.27
21%
4.68
Win to Nil
24%
4.25
4%
24.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.5 | 11.9 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.2 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.8 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charleroi vs RAAL La Louvière?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Charleroi and RAAL La Louvière expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Charleroi and 0.82 for RAAL La Louvière, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Charleroi vs RAAL La Louvière?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Charleroi's recent record stands at 18W 11D 15L from 44 games, a 1.48 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Charleroi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
RAAL La Louvière, meanwhile, have gone 22W 13D 9L across 44 games — 1.80 PPG, with D-D-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for RAAL La Louvière is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.48 PPG for Charleroi against 1.80 for RAAL La Louvière. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Charleroi have managed 11W 5D 5L from 21 games — 1.81 PPG in front of their own supporters.
RAAL La Louvière's away record stands at 9W 6D 6L across 21 trips, a 1.57 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Charleroi are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; RAAL La Louvière are on 1.43 scored and 0.91 conceded.
Defensively: RAAL La Louvière in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charleroi
Blended
RAAL La Louvière
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charleroi and RAAL La Louvière in coming into this match?
Charleroi have gone 18W 11D 15L in their last 44 games (1.48 PPG), while RAAL La Louvière have gone 22W 13D 9L in their last 44 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charleroi at home or RAAL La Louvière away?
Charleroi's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charleroi at home: 1.81 PPG; RAAL La Louvière away: 1.57 PPG.
Have Charleroi or RAAL La Louvière been keeping clean sheets recently?
Charleroi have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, RAAL La Louvière in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since August 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 29 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Charleroi
1
Draws
1
RAAL La Louvière
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and RAAL La Louvière?
From 2 meetings on record, Charleroi have won 0, RAAL La Louvière have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Charleroi and RAAL La Louvière last play each other?
They last met on 29 November 2025, when Charleroi 0-0 RAAL La Louvière.
Who has won more matches between Charleroi and RAAL La Louvière?
RAAL La Louvière have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
RAAL La Louvière are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charleroi 57%, RAAL La Louvière 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Charleroi) and 57% (RAAL La Louvière).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charleroi home games / RAAL La Louvière away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charleroi play RAAL La Louvière?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Charleroi's games and 71% of RAAL La Louvière's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Charleroi vs RAAL La Louvière usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Charleroi's recent games and 57% of RAAL La Louvière's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charleroi and RAAL La Louvière tend to score early?
Charleroi have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, RAAL La Louvière in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Charleroi's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Regular Season - 16, as Charleroi and RAAL La Louvière drew 0-0 in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charleroi 1.54 xG and RAAL La Louvière 0.82 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Charleroi fell 1.5 short of their projected output. RAAL La Louvière landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charleroi attack 0.96 / defence 0.91 against RAAL La Louvière attack 0.87 / defence 1.20, drawn from 45/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charleroi 53% | Draw 28% | RAAL La Louvière 19%, with Charleroi to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charleroi 48%, RAAL La Louvière 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charleroi's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
RAAL La Louvière's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Charleroi 1.48 PPG, RAAL La Louvière 1.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Charleroi (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.95 average — tighter than their form line. RAAL La Louvière (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.