Charleroi 2-3 KVC Westerlo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Charleroi at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Charleroi vs KVC Westerlo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees KVC Westerlo travel to Stade du Pays de Charleroi to take on Charleroi. The game is scheduled for Saturday 17 September 2022, 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Charleroi stand at 6W 0D 4L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Charleroi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Charleroi's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Stade du Pays de Charleroi this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
KVC Westerlo — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for KVC Westerlo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
KVC Westerlo's form when playing away from home: 2W 0D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Charleroi are in the better shape of the two on current Jupiler Pro League data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.30). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Charleroi register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, KVC Westerlo in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
Charleroi in-play tendencies (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
KVC Westerlo in-play tendencies (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charleroi 47% versus KVC Westerlo 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charleroi 72% | KVC Westerlo 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charleroi 2.37 xG and KVC Westerlo 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charleroi attack 1.105 / defence 1.112 | KVC Westerlo attack 0.891 / defence 1.463. League average goals — home 1.464 / away 1.411. KVC Westerlo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.463 — this is suppressing Charleroi's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 42 Charleroi games / 8 KVC Westerlo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charleroi 59% | Draw 19% | KVC Westerlo 22%. Fair-value odds: Charleroi 1.69 | Draw 5.26 | KVC Westerlo 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Charleroi (59%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.77. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.77 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (2.37 / 1.40) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Charleroi as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.77 combined xG gives a 73% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 68% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Charleroi 70% | KVC Westerlo 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charleroi vs KVC Westerlo | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stade du Pays de Charleroi • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Sep 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charleroi 59% | Draw 19% | KVC Westerlo 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 68% | xG Charleroi 2.37 / KVC Westerlo 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Charleroi attack 1.105 / def 1.112 | KVC Westerlo attack 0.891 / def 1.463 | league avg home 1.464 / away 1.411 • Poisson stance: Charleroi (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.37
Charleroi xG
Expected Goals
1.40
KVC Westerlo xG
68%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charleroi vs KVC Westerlo kick off?
Charleroi vs KVC Westerlo kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 17 September 2022 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What was the final score in Charleroi vs KVC Westerlo?
Charleroi 2 - 3 KVC Westerlo.
Where is Charleroi vs KVC Westerlo being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What competition is Charleroi vs KVC Westerlo part of?
Charleroi vs KVC Westerlo is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Charleroi vs KVC Westerlo?
Our statistical model gives Charleroi a 59% chance of winning, KVC Westerlo a 22% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Charleroi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charleroi vs KVC Westerlo?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Charleroi and KVC Westerlo will score (BTTS).
Will Charleroi vs KVC Westerlo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and KVC Westerlo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Charleroi and KVC Westerlo in?
Charleroi (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. KVC Westerlo (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Charleroi's attack rating (1.10) and KVC Westerlo's defence rating (1.46), the model arrives at 2.37 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, KVC Westerlo's attack versus Charleroi's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.7%), 3-1 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Charleroi Win
59%
1.69
19%
5.21
22%
4.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.7%
Draw
3 – 1
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.37
Charleroi xG
Total xG
3.77
1.40
KVC Westerlo xG
1.69
59%
Home win
5.21
19%
Draw
4.59
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.46
32%
BTTS No
3.15
Clean Sheet
25%
4.05
9%
10.67
Win to Nil
15%
6.87
2%
48.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 7.7 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 9.1 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 7.2 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 4.2 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charleroi vs KVC Westerlo?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.1%.
How many goals are Charleroi and KVC Westerlo expected to score?
The model projects 2.37 expected goals for Charleroi and 1.40 for KVC Westerlo, a combined total of 3.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Charleroi vs KVC Westerlo?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Charleroi's recent record stands at 16W 5D 15L from 36 games, a 1.47 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Charleroi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
KVC Westerlo, meanwhile, have gone 20W 5D 11L across 36 games — 1.81 PPG, with W-L-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for KVC Westerlo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Charleroi on 1.47 PPG, KVC Westerlo on 1.81. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Charleroi have managed 8W 4D 6L from 18 games — 1.56 PPG in front of their own supporters.
KVC Westerlo's away record stands at 9W 0D 9L across 18 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Charleroi are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; KVC Westerlo are on 1.81 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 36 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charleroi
Blended
KVC Westerlo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charleroi and KVC Westerlo in coming into this match?
Charleroi have gone 16W 5D 15L in their last 36 games (1.47 PPG), while KVC Westerlo have gone 20W 5D 11L in their last 36 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charleroi at home or KVC Westerlo away?
Charleroi's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charleroi at home: 1.56 PPG; KVC Westerlo away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Charleroi or KVC Westerlo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Charleroi have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, KVC Westerlo in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Charleroi and KVC Westerlo runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
KVC Westerlo have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Charleroi's record when hosting KVC Westerlo specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Charleroi
1
Draws
3
KVC Westerlo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and KVC Westerlo?
From 10 meetings on record, Charleroi have won 6, KVC Westerlo have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Charleroi and KVC Westerlo last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Charleroi 0-1 KVC Westerlo.
Who has won more matches between Charleroi and KVC Westerlo?
Charleroi have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
KVC Westerlo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charleroi 50%, KVC Westerlo 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 72% for Charleroi and 61% for KVC Westerlo. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Charleroi keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charleroi home games / KVC Westerlo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charleroi play KVC Westerlo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Charleroi's recent matches and 56% of KVC Westerlo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Charleroi vs KVC Westerlo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of Charleroi's matches and 61% of KVC Westerlo's.
Do Charleroi and KVC Westerlo tend to score early?
Charleroi have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, KVC Westerlo in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as KVC Westerlo defy the odds to beat Charleroi 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
KVC Westerlo beat Charleroi 2-3 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Regular Season - 9, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charleroi 2.37 xG and KVC Westerlo 1.40 xG, a combined 3.77. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. KVC Westerlo outscored their 1.40 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charleroi attack 1.10 / defence 1.11 against KVC Westerlo attack 0.89 / defence 1.46, drawn from 42/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charleroi 59% | Draw 19% | KVC Westerlo 22%, with Charleroi to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a KVC Westerlo win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charleroi 72%, KVC Westerlo 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charleroi's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
KVC Westerlo's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Charleroi 1.47 PPG, KVC Westerlo 1.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the KVC Westerlo win broke the near-deadlock. Charleroi (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.39 concession average — a leakier day than usual. KVC Westerlo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.78 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.