Charleroi 2-1 Gent – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gent at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Charleroi vs Gent fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Charleroi host Gent at Stade du Pays de Charleroi in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 4 September 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Charleroi stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Charleroi have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Charleroi have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Gent have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Gent have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Gent away from home this season: 8W 2D 0L from 10 away games — 2.60 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.60 exceeds their overall 2.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Charleroi 1.60 PPG, Gent 2.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Charleroi have won 1, Gent 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 May 2022, ended 2–1 with Charleroi winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Charleroi trading profile (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Gent trading profile (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charleroi 48% versus Gent 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charleroi 65% | Gent 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charleroi 1.22 xG and Gent 1.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charleroi attack 1.028 / defence 1.197 | Gent attack 1.149 / defence 0.790. League average goals — home 1.497 / away 1.378. Gent's defence strength of 0.790 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 40 Charleroi games / 40 Gent games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charleroi 24% | Draw 22% | Gent 53%. Fair-value odds: Charleroi 4.17 | Draw 4.55 | Gent 1.89. Gent hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.22 / 1.89) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Gent are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gent offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.11 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Charleroi 60% | Gent 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charleroi vs Gent | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stade du Pays de Charleroi • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Sep 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charleroi 24% | Draw 22% | Gent 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 60% | xG Charleroi 1.22 / Gent 1.89 • Poisson strength factors: Charleroi attack 1.028 / def 1.197 | Gent attack 1.149 / def 0.790 | league avg home 1.497 / away 1.378 • Poisson stance: Gent (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Charleroi xG
Expected Goals
1.89
Gent xG
60%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charleroi vs Gent kick off?
Charleroi vs Gent kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 4 September 2022 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What was the final score in Charleroi vs Gent?
Charleroi 2 - 1 Gent.
Where is Charleroi vs Gent being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What competition is Charleroi vs Gent part of?
Charleroi vs Gent is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Charleroi vs Gent?
Our statistical model gives Charleroi a 24% chance of winning, Gent a 53% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Gent the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charleroi vs Gent?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Charleroi and Gent will score (BTTS).
Will Charleroi vs Gent have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Gent?
Record (2 meetings): Charleroi 1W | Draws 0 | Gent 1W.
What form are Charleroi and Gent in?
Charleroi (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Gent (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Charleroi's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Gent's defensive record (0.79x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.22. The same calculation in reverse, Gent's attack versus Charleroi's defence, projects 1.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Gent Win
24%
4.11
22%
4.46
53%
1.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
0 – 1
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Charleroi xG
Total xG
3.11
1.89
Gent xG
4.11
24%
Home win
4.46
22%
Draw
1.88
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
15%
6.65
30%
3.37
Win to Nil
4%
27.28
16%
6.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 8.5 | 8.0 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 10.3 | 9.7 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 6.2 | 5.9 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charleroi vs Gent?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Charleroi and Gent expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Charleroi and 1.89 for Gent, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Charleroi vs Gent?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Charleroi's recent record stands at 20W 10D 16L from 46 games, a 1.52 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Charleroi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Gent, meanwhile, have gone 25W 10D 11L across 46 games — 1.85 PPG, with D-W-W-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Gent, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Charleroi on 1.52 PPG, Gent on 1.85. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Charleroi have managed 9W 6D 8L from 23 games — 1.43 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Gent's away record stands at 12W 6D 5L across 23 trips, a 1.83 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gent come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Charleroi are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Gent are on 1.63 scored and 0.91 conceded.
Defensively: Gent in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charleroi
Early Season
Gent
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charleroi and Gent in coming into this match?
Charleroi have gone 20W 10D 16L in their last 46 games (1.52 PPG), while Gent have gone 25W 10D 11L in their last 46 (1.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charleroi at home or Gent away?
Gent's away record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charleroi at home: 1.43 PPG; Gent away: 1.83 PPG.
Have Charleroi or Gent been keeping clean sheets recently?
Charleroi have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Gent in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Gent go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Mar 2024, when Gent won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Charleroi's record when hosting Gent specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Charleroi
2
Draws
5
Gent
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Gent?
From 10 meetings on record, Charleroi have won 3, Gent have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Charleroi and Gent last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Charleroi 2-3 Gent.
Who has won more matches between Charleroi and Gent?
Gent have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Gent are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charleroi 44%, Gent 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Charleroi) and 44% (Gent).
On the defensive side: Charleroi keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Gent in 44%; Charleroi have failed to score in 30% of games; Gent in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charleroi home games / Gent away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charleroi play Gent?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Charleroi's recent matches and 44% of Gent's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Charleroi vs Gent usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Charleroi's recent games and 44% of Gent's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charleroi and Gent tend to score early?
Charleroi have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Gent in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Charleroi defy the odds to beat Gent 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charleroi beat Gent 2-1 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Regular Season - 7, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charleroi 1.22 xG and Gent 1.89 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Gent landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charleroi attack 1.03 / defence 1.20 against Gent attack 1.15 / defence 0.79, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charleroi 24% | Draw 22% | Gent 53%, with Gent to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Charleroi win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charleroi 65%, Gent 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charleroi's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Gent's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Charleroi 1.52 PPG, Gent 1.85 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Charleroi win broke the near-deadlock. Gent (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.