Charleroi 0-1 Genk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Genk at 47% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Charleroi vs Genk encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade du Pays de Charleroi plays host to Charleroi versus Genk in Jupiler Pro League (matchday 27). Kick-off: Friday 23 February 2024 at 19:45 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Charleroi have collected 0.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Charleroi's form when playing at home: 6W 0D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Charleroi are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Genk's record over their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Last five: D L L D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.00. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Genk have posted 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
On a straight form reading, Genk are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Charleroi's last 10 home games and Genk's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 80% of Charleroi's games and 80% of Genk's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Genk edge it 1 wins to 0, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 20 Aug 2023, ended Charleroi 0–0 Genk — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Charleroi — key trading statistics (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Genk — key trading statistics (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Charleroi 58% and Genk 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charleroi 54% | Genk 63%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Charleroi surrender their half-time lead 30% of the time, while Genk have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 38% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charleroi 1.38 xG and Genk 1.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charleroi attack 0.992 / defence 1.302 | Genk attack 1.119 / defence 0.883. League average goals — home 1.576 / away 1.241. Charleroi's defence rating of 1.302 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Genk's projected output up. Data: built from Charleroi's last 59 games and Genk's last 60.
Result probabilities: Charleroi 29% | Draw 24% | Genk 47%. Fair-value odds: Charleroi 3.44 | Draw 4.23 | Genk 2.12. Genk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (1.38 / 1.81) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Genk at 47% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Genk if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.19 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Charleroi's last 10 home games and Genk's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Charleroi 80% (last 10 home games) | Genk 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charleroi vs Genk | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, matchday 27 | Venue: Stade du Pays de Charleroi • Kick-off: Friday 23 February 2024 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charleroi 29% | Draw 24% | Genk 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% (Under 38%) | BTTS Yes 63% (No 37%) | xG Charleroi 1.38 / Genk 1.81 • Poisson strength factors: Charleroi attack 0.992 / def 1.302 | Genk attack 1.119 / def 0.883 | league avg home 1.576 / away 1.241 • Poisson stance: Genk (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Charleroi xG
Expected Goals
1.81
Genk xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Charleroi vs Genk FAQs
What time does Charleroi vs Genk kick off?
Charleroi vs Genk kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Friday 23 February 2024 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What was the final score in Charleroi vs Genk?
Charleroi 0 - 1 Genk.
Where is Charleroi vs Genk being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What competition is Charleroi vs Genk part of?
Charleroi vs Genk is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (matchday 27) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Charleroi vs Genk?
Our statistical model gives Charleroi a 29% chance of winning, Genk a 47% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Genk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charleroi vs Genk?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Charleroi and Genk will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Charleroi vs Genk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Charleroi's attack rating (0.99) and Genk's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 1.38 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Genk's attack (1.12x) against Charleroi's defence (1.30x) — and the away total comes out at 1.81.
These ratings are built from Charleroi's last 59 games and Genk's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 2-1 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Genk Win
29%
3.44
24%
4.23
47%
2.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
0 – 1
7.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Charleroi xG
Total xG
3.19
1.81
Genk xG
3.44
29%
Home win
4.23
24%
Draw
2.12
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.70
Clean Sheet
16%
6.10
25%
3.98
Win to Nil
5%
20.99
12%
8.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 7.4 | 6.7 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 10.3 | 9.3 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 7.1 | 6.4 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Charleroi vs Genk Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Charleroi vs Genk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Charleroi and Genk expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Charleroi and 1.81 for Genk, a combined total of 3.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Charleroi vs Genk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 59 outings, Charleroi have picked up 1.24 PPG on a 20W 13D 26L record — L-W-L-L-D across the most recent five.
Genk's form line: 30W 17D 12L from 59 games, 1.81 PPG, last five D-L-L-D-W.
Put side by side, Genk are the form team by 0.57 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Charleroi.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Charleroi have posted 1.52 PPG from their last 29 home games (13W 5D 11L).
On the road, Genk have gone 12W 9D 8L from their last 29 away games — 1.55 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Charleroi are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Genk are on 1.98 scored and 1.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Genk in 64%.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charleroi
Blended
Genk
Blended
Charleroi (Home) vs Genk (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Charleroi
Blended
Genk
Blended
❓ Charleroi vs Genk Form FAQs
What form are Charleroi and Genk in coming into this match?
Charleroi have gone 20W 13D 26L in their last 59 games (1.24 PPG), while Genk have gone 30W 17D 12L in their last 59 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charleroi at home or Genk away?
Genk's away record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charleroi at home: 1.52 PPG; Genk away: 1.55 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Jupiler Pro League. The most recent was on 2 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Genk won Genk 4-1 Charleroi on 4 Nov 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Charleroi have gone 1W 3D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Genk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Charleroi
5
Draws
3
Genk
Recent Meetings
❓ Charleroi vs Genk H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Genk?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Charleroi have won 2, Genk have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Charleroi and Genk last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 May 2026: Charleroi 2-0 Genk.
Who has won more matches between Charleroi and Genk?
Genk have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Genk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 69% for Charleroi, 66% for Genk — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Charleroi) and 55% (Genk). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 34% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charleroi home games / Genk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Charleroi vs Genk Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Charleroi and Genk matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Charleroi's games and 66% of Genk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Charleroi and Genk matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Charleroi's matches and 55% of Genk's.
Do Charleroi and Genk matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of Charleroi's recent matches and 76% of Genk's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Genk edge out Charleroi 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Genk beat Charleroi 0-1 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Regular Season - 27, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charleroi 1.38 xG and Genk 1.81 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Charleroi fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Genk landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charleroi attack 0.99 / defence 1.30 against Genk attack 1.12 / defence 0.88, drawn from 59/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charleroi 29% | Draw 24% | Genk 47%, with Genk to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charleroi 54%, Genk 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charleroi's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Genk's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Genk arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.24. That form edge translated into the three points. Charleroi (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward. Genk (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.