Charleroi 1-1 Cercle Brugge – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Charleroi at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Charleroi face Cercle Brugge.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Charleroi welcome Cercle Brugge to Stade du Pays de Charleroi in Jupiler Pro League (matchday 23). Kick-off is Saturday 25 January 2025 at 17:15 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Charleroi have gone 4W 2D 4L — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L W W L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Charleroi's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Cercle Brugge stand at 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W D W W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Cercle Brugge's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Charleroi) versus 1.50 (Cercle Brugge). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 6 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Charleroi, 3 for Cercle Brugge and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 3 Nov 2024, ended Charleroi 0–2 Cercle Brugge — a Cercle Brugge win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 2.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Charleroi in-play tendencies (last 58 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Cercle Brugge in-play tendencies (last 58 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charleroi 48% versus Cercle Brugge 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charleroi 43% | Cercle Brugge 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charleroi 1.25 xG and Cercle Brugge 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charleroi attack 0.846 / defence 0.989 | Cercle Brugge attack 0.907 / defence 0.975. League average goals — home 1.519 / away 1.117. Data: built from Charleroi's last 52 games and Cercle Brugge's last 52.
Result probabilities: Charleroi 39% | Draw 35% | Cercle Brugge 26%. Fair-value odds: Charleroi 2.58 | Draw 2.87 | Cercle Brugge 3.80. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Charleroi are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Charleroi offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.25 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 61% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Charleroi's last 10 home games and Cercle Brugge's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 6 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 52%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Charleroi 40% (last 10 home games) | Cercle Brugge 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charleroi vs Cercle Brugge | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, matchday 23 | Venue: Stade du Pays de Charleroi • Kick-off: Saturday 25 January 2025 at 17:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charleroi 39% | Draw 35% | Cercle Brugge 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% (Under 61%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Charleroi 1.25 / Cercle Brugge 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Charleroi attack 0.846 / def 0.989 | Cercle Brugge attack 0.907 / def 0.975 | league avg home 1.519 / away 1.117 • Poisson stance: Charleroi (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Charleroi xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Cercle Brugge xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Charleroi vs Cercle Brugge FAQs
What time does Charleroi vs Cercle Brugge kick off?
Charleroi vs Cercle Brugge kicked off at 17:15 UK time on Saturday 25 January 2025 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What was the final score in Charleroi vs Cercle Brugge?
Charleroi 1 - 1 Cercle Brugge.
Where is Charleroi vs Cercle Brugge being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What competition is Charleroi vs Cercle Brugge part of?
Charleroi vs Cercle Brugge is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (matchday 23) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Charleroi vs Cercle Brugge?
Our statistical model gives Charleroi a 39% chance of winning, Cercle Brugge a 26% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Charleroi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charleroi vs Cercle Brugge?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Charleroi and Cercle Brugge will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Charleroi vs Cercle Brugge have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (61%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Charleroi's attack rating (0.85) and Cercle Brugge's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.25 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cercle Brugge's attack versus Charleroi's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Charleroi's last 52 games and Cercle Brugge's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.2%), 1-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charleroi Win
39%
2.58
35%
2.87
26%
3.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
0 – 0
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Charleroi xG
Total xG
2.25
1.00
Cercle Brugge xG
2.58
39%
Home win
2.87
35%
Draw
3.80
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.06
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
29%
3.50
Win to Nil
14%
7.02
8%
13.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 13.2 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 8.2 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Charleroi vs Cercle Brugge Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Charleroi vs Cercle Brugge?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Charleroi and Cercle Brugge expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Charleroi and 1.00 for Cercle Brugge, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Charleroi vs Cercle Brugge?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 58 outings, Charleroi have picked up 1.26 PPG on a 20W 13D 25L record — L-W-W-L-D across the most recent five.
Cercle Brugge's form line: 22W 15D 21L from 58 games, 1.40 PPG, last five D-W-D-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Charleroi on 1.26 PPG, Cercle Brugge on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Charleroi have posted 1.64 PPG from their last 28 home games (13W 7D 8L).
On the road, Cercle Brugge have gone 8W 8D 12L from their last 28 away games — 1.14 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Charleroi come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Charleroi are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Cercle Brugge are on 1.33 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charleroi
Blended
Cercle Brugge
Blended
Charleroi (Home) vs Cercle Brugge (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Charleroi
Blended
Cercle Brugge
Blended
❓ Charleroi vs Cercle Brugge Form FAQs
What form are Charleroi and Cercle Brugge in coming into this match?
Charleroi have gone 20W 13D 25L in their last 58 games (1.26 PPG), while Cercle Brugge have gone 22W 15D 21L in their last 58 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charleroi at home or Cercle Brugge away?
Charleroi's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charleroi at home: 1.64 PPG; Cercle Brugge away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to March 2022. All of them came in Jupiler Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 19 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 19 Mar 2022, when Charleroi won Charleroi 5-0 Cercle Brugge.
Charleroi's record when hosting Cercle Brugge specifically: 3W 2D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Charleroi
2
Draws
4
Cercle Brugge
Recent Meetings
❓ Charleroi vs Cercle Brugge H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Cercle Brugge?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Charleroi have won 4, Cercle Brugge have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Charleroi and Cercle Brugge last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 September 2026: Charleroi 3-2 Cercle Brugge.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Cercle Brugge are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charleroi 57%, Cercle Brugge 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Charleroi) and 50% (Cercle Brugge).
On the defensive side: Charleroi keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Cercle Brugge in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charleroi home games / Cercle Brugge away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Charleroi vs Cercle Brugge Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Charleroi and Cercle Brugge matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Charleroi's games and 54% of Cercle Brugge's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Charleroi and Cercle Brugge matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Charleroi's recent games and 50% of Cercle Brugge's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charleroi and Cercle Brugge matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Charleroi's recent matches and 75% of Cercle Brugge's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Charleroi and Cercle Brugge share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charleroi and Cercle Brugge finished level at 1-1 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Regular Season - 23, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charleroi 1.25 xG and Cercle Brugge 1.00 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charleroi attack 0.85 / defence 0.99 against Cercle Brugge attack 0.91 / defence 0.97, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charleroi 39% | Draw 35% | Cercle Brugge 26%, with Charleroi to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charleroi 43%, Cercle Brugge 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charleroi's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Cercle Brugge's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Charleroi 1.26 PPG, Cercle Brugge 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.