Charleroi 0-1 Anderlecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Charleroi at 36%, yet the head-to-head data favours Anderlecht — this Charleroi vs Anderlecht fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Charleroi and Anderlecht meet at Stade du Pays de Charleroi in Jupiler Pro League (matchday 26). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 16 February 2025 at 17:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Charleroi have collected 1.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: L D D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Charleroi's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Anderlecht's record over their last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). Last five: L W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Anderlecht's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Charleroi, 1.60 for Anderlecht — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Across the 7 H2H matches in our data, Anderlecht have the stronger record — 5 wins to Charleroi's 1, with 1 draw.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 21 Sep 2024, ended Charleroi 0–0 Anderlecht — a draw.
Anderlecht have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 5 wins from 7 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading
Charleroi half-time and goal-timing data (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Anderlecht half-time and goal-timing data (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; of the 28 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charleroi 49% versus Anderlecht 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charleroi 43% | Anderlecht 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charleroi 1.14 xG and Anderlecht 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charleroi attack 1.043 / defence 0.874 | Anderlecht attack 1.045 / defence 0.708. League average goals — home 1.549 / away 1.135. Anderlecht bring a tight defence (rating 0.708, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Charleroi's projected output down. Data: built from Charleroi's last 55 games and Anderlecht's last 55.
Result probabilities: Charleroi 36% | Draw 34% | Anderlecht 30%. Fair-value odds: Charleroi 2.79 | Draw 2.97 | Anderlecht 3.28. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Charleroi as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Charleroi if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.18 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 63% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Charleroi's last 10 home games and Anderlecht's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Charleroi 50% (last 10 home games) | Anderlecht 30% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charleroi vs Anderlecht | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, matchday 26 | Venue: Stade du Pays de Charleroi • Kick-off: Sunday 16 February 2025 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charleroi 36% | Draw 34% | Anderlecht 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% (Under 63%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Charleroi 1.14 / Anderlecht 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Charleroi attack 1.043 / def 0.874 | Anderlecht attack 1.045 / def 0.708 | league avg home 1.549 / away 1.135 • Poisson stance: Charleroi (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Charleroi xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Anderlecht xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Charleroi vs Anderlecht FAQs
What time does Charleroi vs Anderlecht kick off?
Charleroi vs Anderlecht kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Sunday 16 February 2025 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What was the final score in Charleroi vs Anderlecht?
Charleroi 0 - 1 Anderlecht.
Where is Charleroi vs Anderlecht being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What competition is Charleroi vs Anderlecht part of?
Charleroi vs Anderlecht is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (matchday 26) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Charleroi vs Anderlecht?
Our statistical model gives Charleroi a 36% chance of winning, Anderlecht a 30% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Charleroi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charleroi vs Anderlecht?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Charleroi and Anderlecht will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Charleroi vs Anderlecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (63%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Charleroi's attack at 1.04x the league average against Anderlecht's defence at 0.71x — combine the two and it projects 1.14 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Anderlecht's attack (1.04x) against Charleroi's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from Charleroi's last 55 games and Anderlecht's last 55 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.0%), 1-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charleroi Win
36%
2.79
34%
2.97
30%
3.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Charleroi xG
Total xG
2.18
1.04
Anderlecht xG
2.79
36%
Home win
2.97
34%
Draw
3.28
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
32%
3.14
Win to Nil
13%
7.85
10%
10.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 11.7 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.4 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 7.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Charleroi vs Anderlecht Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Charleroi vs Anderlecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Charleroi and Anderlecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Charleroi and 1.04 for Anderlecht, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Charleroi vs Anderlecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 61 outings, Charleroi have picked up 1.28 PPG on a 21W 15D 25L record — L-D-D-W-D across the most recent five.
Anderlecht's form line: 31W 17D 13L from 61 games, 1.80 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-W.
Put side by side, Anderlecht are the form team by 0.52 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Charleroi.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Charleroi have posted 1.67 PPG from their last 30 home games (14W 8D 8L).
On the road, Anderlecht have gone 11W 11D 8L from their last 30 away games — 1.47 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Charleroi are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Anderlecht are on 1.80 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charleroi
Blended
Anderlecht
Blended
Charleroi (Home) vs Anderlecht (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Charleroi
Blended
Anderlecht
Blended
❓ Charleroi vs Anderlecht Form FAQs
What form are Charleroi and Anderlecht in coming into this match?
Charleroi have gone 21W 15D 25L in their last 61 games (1.28 PPG), while Anderlecht have gone 31W 17D 13L in their last 61 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charleroi at home or Anderlecht away?
Charleroi's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charleroi at home: 1.67 PPG; Anderlecht away: 1.47 PPG.
Have Charleroi or Anderlecht been keeping clean sheets recently?
Charleroi have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Anderlecht in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Jupiler Pro League. The most recent was on 26 December 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Charleroi have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Anderlecht won Anderlecht 4-0 Charleroi on 3 Apr 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Charleroi have gone 1W 0D 4L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Anderlecht — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Charleroi
1
Draws
6
Anderlecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Charleroi vs Anderlecht H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Anderlecht?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Charleroi have won 3, Anderlecht have won 6, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Charleroi and Anderlecht last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 26 December 2025: Anderlecht 1-2 Charleroi.
Who has won more matches between Charleroi and Anderlecht?
Anderlecht have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Anderlecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 46% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charleroi 57%, Anderlecht 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Charleroi) and 57% (Anderlecht).
On the defensive side: Charleroi keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charleroi home games / Anderlecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Charleroi vs Anderlecht Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Charleroi and Anderlecht matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Charleroi's games and 67% of Anderlecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Charleroi and Anderlecht matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Charleroi's recent games and 57% of Anderlecht's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charleroi and Anderlecht matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Charleroi's recent matches and 83% of Anderlecht's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Anderlecht defy the odds to beat Charleroi 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Anderlecht beat Charleroi 0-1 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Regular Season - 26, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charleroi 1.14 xG and Anderlecht 1.04 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Charleroi fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charleroi attack 1.04 / defence 0.87 against Anderlecht attack 1.04 / defence 0.71, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charleroi 36% | Draw 34% | Anderlecht 30%, with Charleroi to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Anderlecht win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charleroi 43%, Anderlecht 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charleroi's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Anderlecht's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Anderlecht arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.28. Form held, and they took the win. Charleroi (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.37 scoring average — below par going forward. Anderlecht (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.